2014 goes into the books one of the most active Pacific hurricane seasons on record
FRISCO — As a giant pump that redistributes global heat, it’s no surprise that El Niño affects the formation and timing of hurricanes. In general, meteorologists see that El Niño conditions sometimes suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic. But less is known about how the cyclical surges of warm water at the equator affect Pacific hurricanes.
A new study suggests there may a delayed reaction, with peak hurricane in the northeastern Pacific happening two or three years after an El Niño peak. The climate researchers with the University of Hawai’i School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, National Taiwan University uncovered an oceanic pathway that brings El Niño’s heat into the Northeastern Pacific to directly fuel intense hurricanes in that region. Continue reading “Study: East Pacific hurricanes peak 2-3 years after El Niño”→
Hurricane watches in effect for parts of the Mexican coast
By Summit Voice
FRISCO — The fifth named tropical cyclone of the season in the Eastern Pacific has developed into a full-fledged hurricane and threatens parts of Mexico’s west coast with storm surges, high winds and heavy rains.
Hurricane Erick is generating winds of 80 mph and is expected to hug the coast of Mexico for a few more days, according to the National Hurricane Center. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the mainland Mexico coast from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes, while a hurricane watch has been issued from Punta san Telmo to Cabo Corrientes.
Parts of Baja, from Santa Fe to La Paz, are under a tropical storm watch. The center of the storm is expected to approach the southern tip of Baja by late Sunday. The official forecast calls for Hurricane Erick to veer more toward the west before reaching Baja under the steering influence of a strong ridge of high pressure over Mexico and the southwester U.S.
The storm could weaken quickly if it interacts with land or when as moves across cooler waters on its northwesterly track.
Climate change, population growth making more people vulnerable to coastal threats
By Bob Berwyn
SUMMIT COUNTY — Though climate change wasn’t mentioned directly during the first panel session at this year’s Glenn Gerberg Weather and Climate Summit in Breckenridge, it may have been the invisible 800-pound gorilla in the room.
Looking back at the 2012 season, National Hurricane Center director Dr. Rick Knabb said this year’s tropical storms were all about the water, rather than winds. Rainfall and storm surges from storms like Isaac and Debby had significant impacts while the centers were far offshore and even though their winds weren’t particularly strong, Knabb said.
Powerful late season storm could affect U.S. East Coast
By Summit Voice
FRISCO — Jamaica is about to take a direct hit from what is now Hurricane Sandy, which is generating sustained winds of 80 mph just off the island nation’s southern coast. Hurricane warnings are in effect for the entire island, where six to 12 inches of rain is expected, leading to dangerous flooding.
Sandy’s storm surge will raise water levels by as much as one to three feet above normal along Jamaica’s southern and eastern coast, along with large and dangerous waves. Hurricane-force winds extend outward about 25 miles from the center of the storm, with tropical storm force winds extending outward up to 140 miles.
A hurricane warning is also in effect for most of eastern Cuba, where the storm surge could reach three to five feet along the southeastern coast. An even more intense storm surge of five to eight feet is expected in the Bahamas, where a hurricane watch is in effect.
Sandy will pass over Jamaica Wednesday afternoon and evening and reach Cuba Wednesday night and approach the Bahamas Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southeast Florida coast Friday.
Beyond that, each subsequent forecast model has been pushing the storm closer to the East Coast, where emergency preparations have started. Some tracks show the storm interacting with an approaching cold front and hitting the North East as a powerful non-tropical storm, but the exact path is still uncertain.
Flash flooding possible in coastal mountains of Sinaloa
By Summit Voice
SUMMIT COUNTY — Yet another named eastern Pacific tropical weather system has formed, this time in the channel between Baja, California and the Mexican mainland.
Tropical Storm Norman is generating winds of about 50 mph and is forecast to make landfall somewhere south of Mazatlán within the next 24 hours, then quickly dissipate as it moves inland.
A tropical storm warning has been issued for the west coast of Mexico from La Cruz northward to Huatabampo, where rainfall amounts are expected to range between 4 and 8 inches, with up to 12 inches possible in a few spots.
Irene was the first hurricane to hit the U.S. in three years
By Summit Voice
SUMMIT COUNTY — The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season officially ends November 30 after producing a total of 19 tropical storms. Seven became hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. The activity matched NOAA’s predictions and continues the trend of active hurricane seasons that began in 1995.
Hurricane Irene was the lone hurricane to hit the United States in 2011, and the first since Ike struck southeast Texas in 2008. Irene was also the most significant tropical cyclone to strike the Northeast since Hurricane Bob in 1991. Its effects in the Caribbean and the United States lead to 55 deaths and accounted for the bulk of this season’s damage, more than $10 billion. Irene was the first landfalling hurricane in New Jersey in 108 years.
“Irene broke the ‘hurricane amnesia’ that can develop when so much time lapses between landfalling storms,” said Jack Hayes, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “This season is a reminder that storms can hit any part of our coast and that all regions need to be prepared each and every season.”
Buildup of aerosols weakens upper-level winds that normally shear tropical storms
By Summit Voice
SUMMIT COUNTY — A buildup of atmospheric pollutants may be contributing to the intensification of tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea, said a group of researchers who documented a shift in upper-air wind patterns over the region.
The scientists linked those changes to increased aerosols, possibly originating over the Indian subcontinent. A widespread brown cloud dampens the formation of monsoon-related shearing winds that historically have weakened cyclones in the region.
“We are showing that pollution from human activity – as simple as burning wood or driving a vehicle with a diesel engine – can actually change these massive atmospheric phenomena in a significant way,” said the study’s lead author, Amato Evan, an environmental scientist in the University of Virginia’s College of Arts & Sciences. “It underscores the importance of getting a handle on emissions in the region.” Continue reading “Pollution may be fueling unusual desert cyclones”→