‘In the long term, there is robust evidence of unabated global warming ..’
FRISCO — A shift in a decadal-scale cycle of Pacific Ocean temperatures could lead to a spike in global warming the next few years, climate researchers said after tracking a subsurface layer of unusually warm water in the Pacific and Indian oceans.
The layer, between 300 and 1,000 feet below the surface, has been accumulating more heat than previously recognized, according to climate researchers from UCLA and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, who published their finding in the journal Science.
Cooler Pacific Ocean temps may drive tornado activity into southern U.S.
By Summit Voice
FRISCO — After studying more than 56,000 tornados, researchers at the University of Missouri say they’ve found a clear link between Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures and the patterns of storms that spawn the violent twisters. The findings could help scientists predict the type and location of tornado activity in the U.S.
When surface sea temperatures were warmer than average, the U.S. experienced 20.3 percent more tornadoes that were rated EF-2 to EF-5 on the Enhanced Fuijta (EF) scale. (The EF scale rates the strength of tornados based on the damage they cause. The scale has six category rankings from zero to five.)
Natural climate variables so far outweigh global warming impacts
By Summit Voice
SUMMIT COUNTY — The timing and amount of monsoon rains in the northern hemisphere have important economic and environmental ramifications, for example for farmers in Asia and the wildfire season in the southwestern U.S.
As a result, climate researchers have been trying to determine how the Earth’s steady warming will affect those seasonal rainfall patterns, and so far, the jury is still out. Some recent research has suggested that the timing of the North American monsoon might be delayed, while other studies have indicated that there could be an overall increase in monsoon precipitation.
Drought expected to persist; water supply outlook grim
By Bob Berwyn
FRISCO — Temperatures will begin to moderate across the Colorado high country the next few days, with highs climbing back to near seasonal norms, which is only in the lower 30s, but that should feel downright balmy after enduring an Arctic air mass the past few days.
The nicest weather will be up on the mountain slopes, because warmer air aloft will trap cold air on the valley floors, and with no incoming weather systems to stir up the atmosphere, those inversions are likely to persist for the foreseeable future. That also means there’s no snow in the forecast for the next 10 days unless there’s a dramatic shift in the jet stream, which will stay far to the north for the next week at least. Continue reading “Colorado: A warmup, but no snow in sight”→
If you’re holding out for more snow before heading out to make turns on the hill, you may want to reconsider. The outlook for the next 10 days is mostly dry and warm, with perhaps a chance of snow brushing the northern mountains Sunday night into Monday morning. Beyond that, another ridge will build into the Southwest, bringing more dry weather and a return to above normal temps for much of next week. Continue reading “Colorado: Mostly dry into December”→
Forecasters call for neutral conditions, but say a La Niña is not out of the question
By Summit Voice
FRISCO — With sea surface temps cooling to near average in much of the equatorial Pacific, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has dropped an El Niño watch that’s been in effect for the past several months.
El Niño is part of a cyclical pattern of sea surface temperature variations that affects global weather patterns. The emerging El Niño forecast last spring and summer offered some hope for drought relief in the parched Southwest and the southern tier of states, where warmer than average Pacific Ocean temps can help boost winter and spring precipitation.
No clear signal means water managers will be biting their nails for a few months
By Bob Berwyn
FRISCO — Without a strong El Niño or La Niña signal, Colorado weather watchers are struggling even more than usual to get a sense of how much snow to expect this coming winter, critical information for water managers who have seen reservoir storage dwindle to below 70 percent of average for this time of year.
Even if winter snowfall is close to normal, some reservoirs are unlikely to refill completely next spring, leaving utilities in the position of hoping for an above average winter.
“We’re far from through this. The story has yet to unfold,” Blue River Basin water commissioner Troy Wineland said after participating in a weekly statewide water webinar, explaining that many local streams are flowing well below seasonal averages. A few others are close to average due to upstream releases of stored water, he said. Continue reading “Colorado: Forecasters still grappling with winter outlook”→