Soil moisture, snowpack data help inform new forecast modeling
Some droughts creep up on you, while others seem to come out of nowhere, like in 2012 when spring came early and a hot, dry summer parched fields and forests and led to a busy wildfire season, including the destructive Waldo Canyon blaze near Colorado Springs.
Seasonal forecasts issued in May 2012 did not foresee a drought forming in the country’s midsection. But by the end of August, the drought had spread across the Midwest, parching Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri. Now, after analyzing conditions leading up to the drough, researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, say similar droughts in the future could be predicted by paying close attention to key indicators like snowmelt and soil moisture. Continue reading “Study eyes ‘flash drought’ forecasts”→
Every state was warmer than average for the summer
This year’s meteorological summer in the contiguous U.S. (June-August) will go down in the climate annals as the fifth-warmest on record, at 2.8 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average.
The year-to-date is the third-warmest on record, with Alaska on pace for a record-warm year after eight months, according to NOAA’s monthly State of the Climate summary, available here. August was the 17-warmest on record, with record warmth in the Northeast, and below average temperatures in the Southwest.
After record rain storms in parts of the Midwest and along the Gulf Coast, August ended up as the second wettest on record.
For the summer, according to NOAA, every state across the contiguous U.S., had a statewide temperature that was above average. Twenty-nine states across the West and in the East were much warmer than average for the summer. California, Connecticut and Rhode Island each had their warmest summer on record.
Alaska observed its second warmest summer in its 92-year record at 53.6°F, 3.0°F above average. Only the summer of 2004 was warmer with a statewide temperature value of 55.9°F. Several locations across the state were record warm including Anchorage, Kenai, King Salmon and Yakutat.
New study suggests climate is very sensitive to greenhouse gases
Although the rate of global warming has increased dramatically in the last few decades, a new study suggests that human activities have been driving climate change for the past 180 years. The findings suggest that global warming is not just a 20th century phenomenon, and that the climate system is, indeed, quite sensitive to the buildup of heat-trapping pollution.
The study was led by Nerilie Abram, of The Australian National University, who warming began during the early stages of the Industrial Revolution and started leaving a fingerprint in the Arctic and tropical oceans around the 1830s, much earlier than scientists had expected. Continue reading “Global warming started earlier than you think”→
Cool and stormy weather in the Arctic during July slowed the rate of sea ice loss to just below average for the month, making it less likely sea ice extent will dwindle to a record low, according to the latest update from the National Ice and Snow Data Center. But it all depends on conditions the next few months.
For the month, sea ice extent averaged 2.14 million square miles, the third-lowest for July since satellite records started in 1979. It was only the second month of 2016 that didn’t end with a record-low extent, according to the NSIDC. The sea ice extent in July was 73,000 square miles above the previous record low 637,000 square miles below the 1981 to 2010 long-term average. Through 2016, the rate of decline for the month of July is 28,070 square miles per year, about 7.3 percent per decade. Continue reading “Climate: Arctic sea ice melt slows slightly in July”→
Deadly heatwaves and flooding part of emerging pattern of extremes
Blistering, record heat in the Southwest helped propel the lower 48 states to a new high-temperature record in June, with an average reading of 71.8 degrees Fahrenheit for the month. That included a new monthly temperature record set in Death Valley National Park, where the average temperature in June was 101.9 degrees Fahrenheit.
The warmest-ever June reading broke the record set during the Dust Bowl era, in 1933, according to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. The year-to-date is the third-warmest on record, the monthly state of the climate summary report said.
Pacific Ocean ENSO cycle a key player in global climate
By Bob Berwyn
The shift from a powerful El Niño to the cooler La Niña phase of Pacific Ocean temperatures will temporarily end the planet’s recent record streak of record-warm years, according to climate scientists who see the cyclical ocean changes as a key factor in the long-term global climate change equation.