Posted on August 13, 2015 by Bob Berwyn
NOAA updates seasonal outlook; El Niño likely to persist into spring
Warmer than average sea surface temperatures prevail across most of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, as El Niño continues to strengthen.
By Bob Berwyn
FRISCO — Federal weather experts today said they’re more sure than ever that a strong El Niño will persist through the fall and winter, but they are less certain about how the cyclical Pacific Ocean climate pattern will play out across the U.S. The Aug. 13 El Niño update and diagnostic discussion is online here — it says there’s a 90 percent chance El Niño will last through the winter and an 85 percent chance it will last into early spring 2016.
During an El Niño, sea surface temperatures are above average across the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, and this year’s event could be among the strongest on record dating back to 1950, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Continue reading
Filed under: climate and weather, Drought, El Niño, extreme weather, global warming | Tagged: California drought, climate, El Nino, Pacific Northwest drought, winter weather outlook | 1 Comment »
Posted on October 16, 2014 by Bob Berwyn
The southern U.S., including parts of drought-hit Arizona, may see above-average precipitation this winter.
Climate experts say there’s good chance of average precipitation in California, but recovery will take a while
FRISCO — There may be some drought relief for California this winter, but the state won’t make up a huge moisture deficit in just one rainy season, federal climate scientists said this week, releasing their winter season outlook.
“Complete drought recovery in California this winter is highly unlikely,” said Mike Halpert, acting director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.”While we’re predicting at least a 2 in 3 chance that winter precipitation will be near or above normal throughout the state, with such widespread, extreme deficits, recovery will be slow,” Halpert added. Continue reading
Filed under: agriculture, climate and weather, Drought, El Niño | Tagged: California drought, climate, El Nino, winter weather outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on November 22, 2013 by Bob Berwyn
NOAA’s winter outlook offers little relief for Arizona, New Mexico
By Bob Berwyn
FRISCO — Drought conditions may persist across the southwestern U.S. this winter and may redevelop across the Southeast, according to the seasonal outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
“Even though we don’t have La Niña, the atmosphere across the Pacific seems to be stuck in a La Niña mode … It’s been quite surprising to us, how persistent the pattern is,” said Mike Halpert, acting director of the Climate Prediction Center.
Parts of the Southwest, especially New Mexico, have been experiencing one of the driest periods on record, and Halpert said there is “decent agreement” in the CPC’s models on the climate signal that has resulted in the persistent trend. Continue reading
Filed under: climate and weather, Drought, El Niño, La Niña | Tagged: climate, Climate Prediction Center, drought, El Nino, ENSO, La Niña, Southwest, winter weather outlook | 2 Comments »
Posted on November 21, 2012 by Bob Berwyn
State water task force gets a gloomy winter outlook, with odds climbing for dry conditions through March
Exposed shoreline terraces along Dillon Reservoir in Summit County, Colorado.
Statewide snowpack conditions as of Nov. 20.
By Bob Berwyn
FRISCO — Colorado could be in for another dry winter, but at this point, the state’s water providers have not revealed any specific plans to respond to continued drought.
Even after hearing a gloomy outlook on winter precipitation, big municipal utilities said they’re in a wait-and-see mode — and hoping for snow.
But there’s no reason to expect a particularly snowy pattern. In fact, all indications are that precipitation may end up below average once again, barring an some anomalous storm event this winter.
“Don’t shoot the messenger,” said meteorologist Klaus Wolter, with NOAA’s Earth Systems Research Laboratory in Boulder. “Most of the information I have is dry. I hope I’m wrong,” Wolter said, offering a seasonal outlook for a state water availability task force. Continue reading
Filed under: climate and weather, Colorado, Drought, Environment, rivers, seasons, Snow and weather, water | Tagged: Colorado, drought, water, winter weather outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on November 1, 2012 by Bob Berwyn
Forecasters not bullish on big winter
drought conditions persisted across most of Colorado during the past three months.
Temps from mid-September to mid-October average 1 to 3 degrees above average in western Colorado and 1 to 3 degrees below average east of the Rockies.
By Summit Voice
FRISCO — This winter’s iffy weather pattern doesn’t hold the promise of significant drought relief, according to the National Weather Service’s Boulder office, which released its winter winter weather outlook this week.
There’s a reasonable expectation that the state will see more storms than last winter, but forecasters don’t expect those storms to be as intense or long-‐lasting as those commonly observed during stronger El Niño or La Niña episodes, as the storm track is expected to be inconsistent in what looks to be either a weak El Niño or even neutral Pacific ocean conditions. Continue reading
Filed under: climate and weather, Colorado, Snow and weather, Summit County snow and weather | Tagged: Colorado, El Nino, ENSO, La Niña, weather, winter weather outlook | 1 Comment »