European forecasters look to NAO for climate clues

Posted on May 19, 2013 by Bob Berwyn
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Seasonal shifts in the North Atlantic Oscillation have a strong effect on European weather.

New study helps track seasonal shifts in North Atlantic storm track

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — Just as weather forecasters in the western U.S. look at El Niño and La Niña to help get a handle on season outlooks, European meteorologists are carefully analyzing the North Atlantic Oscillation for climate clues. The job is easier in some years, according to a new study carried out by the National Oceanography Centre.

The research shwoed that the relationship between our winter weather and the strength of the airflow coming in from the Atlantic – one of the factors used by forecasters to predict the weather – is stronger in some years than others. The results were recently published in the Royal Meteorological Society publication Weather.

“There are two major atmospheric pressure systems centred around Iceland and the Azores that are very influential for the weather in Europe. Air flows between these two systems, bringing mild air from the North Atlantic to Europe,” said co-authors Joël Hirschi and Bablu Sinha from the National Oceanography Centre. (more…)

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Climate: U.S. temps cooler than average in April 2013

Posted on May 15, 2013 by Bob Berwyn

Upper Midwest experiences record and near-record cold

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Extremely cold temperatures in the heartland of the USA pushed the average temperature across the country to well below normal for April 2013. Graph courtesy NOAA.

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — For the first time in quite a while the U.S. experienced a month with temperatures running below the historic average. The average temperature across the contiguous 48 states for April 2013 was 49.7 degrees, 1.4 degrees below the 20th century average. It was the 23d-coolest April on record and the coolest since 1997, when the average temperature was 48 degrees, according to the National Climatic Data Center’s monthly summary.

For January through April, temps for the Lower 48 states are near the 20th century average.

The coldest readings prevailed across the central part of the country, especially north, where North Dakota reported its coldest April on record with an average temperature of 31 degrees — 9.9 degrees below the 20th century average. South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Minnesota, and Wisconsin all tallied top-10 coldest readings for the month. (more…)

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NASA mission targets more accurate snowpack data

Posted on May 4, 2013 by Bob Berwyn
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NASA Airborne Snow Observatory measurements of snow water equivalent (top image) and snow albedo, or reflectivity (bottom image) for the Tuolumne River Basin in California’s Sierra Nevada on April 21, 2013. The snow water equivalent measured the total water contained as snow in the basin on that date at 375 million cubic meters, or enough to fill the Rose Bowl about 1,180 times. The albedo map expresses the percentage of sunlight reflected back to space by the snow. The lower the albedo, the faster the snowmelt rate and runoff. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech.

Aerial surveys with high-tech instruments will create detailed snow maps, yielding better runoff forecasts

FRISCO — Data from an ambitious new NASA aerial program could help resource managers get a jump on global warming, with more precise and timely snowpack measurements.

By Summit Voice

NASA’s Airborne Snow Observatory began it’s three-year demonstration mission in April, with weekly flights over the Tuolumne River Basin in California’s Sierra Nevada and monthly flights over Colorado’s Uncompahgre River Basin. Scientists involved in the program hope to start covering the entire Upper Colorado River Basin.

The data is already paying off for power companies and water managers, who can use real-time updates to allocate water resources more efficiently, for storage, irrigation and municipal supplies.

Most snowpack measurements are currently collected via ground-based surveys and from automated SNOTEL sites. Airborne mapping can cover more ground and gather data from areas without observation stations, resulting in more accurate forecasts. (more…)

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Morning photo: Snow, snow … snow!

Posted on March 22, 2013 by Bob Berwyn

Spring fluff

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Gotta love the way that March snow sticks to the branches.

FRISCO — Finally, in the first few days of spring, winter weather showed up for real, with one of the biggest single-day snowfalls of the season here in Frisco. The snow was wet and heavy and settled quickly, so it was hard to get a good measurement of the daily total, but at least five inches piled up here in town. And it’s getting that time of year when you really appreciate the snowfall, knowing it could be the last (although the weather forecast is calling for more wintry weather this weekend). It’s kind of like that tingly feeling feeling when the first snows of autumn fall, except in reverse. Sometimes in the middle of the winter, we take it all for granted (but not this year), and some years, we even get fed up (although we shouldn’t). But Thursday’s snowfall was just about perfect. (more…)

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Climate: NOAA offers warm and dry spring outlook

Posted on March 21, 2013 by Bob Berwyn
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The three-month temperature outlook from NOAA indicates warmer than average temperatures across much of the contiguous U.S.

Drought expected to persist across the middle of the country

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Although March has been cold and snowy across large parts of the U.S., NOAA forecasters say the chances are better than even that temperatures will rebound to above average across much of the continental United States, including drought-stricken areas of Texas, the Southwest and the Great Plains, with little drought relief for those areas. Florida is expected to stay dry as well, but river flooding is possible in some areas, especially North Dakota.

“This outlook reminds us of the climate diversity and weather extremes we experience in North America, where one state prepares for flooding while neighboring states are parched, with no drought relief in sight,” said Laura Furgione, deputy director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “We produce this outlook to help communities prepare for what’s likely to come in the next few months and minimize weather’s impacts on lives and livelihoods. A Weather-Ready Nation hopes for the best, but prepares for the worst.” (more…)

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New research may help pinpoint Asian monsoon

Posted on January 27, 2013 by Bob Berwyn

Regional pressure fluctuations the key to unraveling monsoon mysteries

The first week of August 2010 brought extreme flooding and landslides to many parts of Asia. By August 11, floods in the Indus River basin had become Pakistan’s worst natural disaster to date, leaving more than 1,600 people dead and disrupting the lives of about 14 million people, reported Reuters. Across the border in northeast India, flash floods killed 185 with 400 still missing, reported BBC News. Floods in North Korea and northeast China buried farmland and destroyed homes, factories, railroads, and bridges. And in northwest China, rain triggered a massive landslide that left 702 dead with 1,042 missing, reported China’s state news agency, Xinhua. All of these disasters occurred as a result of unusually heavy monsoon rains, depicted in this image.

The first week of August 2010 brought extreme flooding and landslides to many parts of Asia. By August 11, floods in the Indus River basin had become Pakistan’s worst natural disaster to date, leaving more than 1,600 people dead and disrupting the lives of about 14 million people, reported Reuters. Across the border in northeast India, flash floods killed 185 with 400 still missing, reported BBC News. Floods in North Korea and northeast China buried farmland and destroyed homes, factories, railroads, and bridges. Photo courtesy NASA Earth Observatory.

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — Hawaii-based scientists say that tracking hemispheric climate patterns can help develop more accurate forecasts for the critical Asian monsoon season, which is critical to  the agriculture, economy, and people in the region.

Better monsoon forecasts have been a sort of Holy Grail for meteorologists, but season  seasonal predictions of these two types of weather phenomena are still poor. But the research done at the International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, shows the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon and  storm activity in the western North Pacific depend on fluctuations in the western Pacific Subtropical High, a major atmospheric circulation system in the global subtropics centered over the Philippine Sea.

When this system is strong in summer, then monsoon rainfall tends to be greater than normal over East Asia, and in the western North Pacific there tend to be fewer tropical storms that make landfall. (more…)

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Climate: Cold, but not all that cold

Posted on January 18, 2013 by Bob Berwyn

Record highs still outpacing record lows

A snapshot of recent temperature records, courtesy NOAA?NCDC.

A snapshot of recent temperature records, courtesy NOAA?NCDC.

By Bob Berwyn

FRISCO — If you were to pay attention to the yowling of some of the noisiest global warming deniers, you’d think that our little January cold snap means the end of global warming, and the start of a new ice age.

Well guess what? It’s winter. It’s January and it’s supposed to be cold. Global warming doesn’t mean that it’s never going to be cold. Global warming means that, on average, around the world, temperatures are increasing over the long run. (more…)

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Colorado: A warmup, but no snow in sight

Posted on January 16, 2013 by Bob Berwyn

Drought expected to persist; water supply outlook grim

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Colorado’s snowpack hasn’t been above average since the big winter of 2010-2011.

By Bob Berwyn

FRISCO — Temperatures will begin to moderate across the Colorado high country the next few days, with highs climbing back to near seasonal norms, which is only in the lower 30s, but that should feel downright balmy after enduring an Arctic air mass the past few days.

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Dry conditions persisted across Colorado in the autumn of 2012, especially in the plains.

The nicest weather will be up on the mountain slopes, because warmer air aloft will trap cold air on the valley floors, and with no incoming weather systems to stir up the atmosphere, those inversions are likely to persist for the foreseeable future. That also means there’s no snow in the forecast for the next 10 days unless there’s a dramatic shift in the jet stream, which will stay far to the north for the next week at least. (more…)

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Colorado snowpack lagging behind last year

Posted on January 5, 2013 by Bob Berwyn

December snowfall slightly above average

Colorado snowpack map

December snow boosted ski area prospects, but state snowpack is still lagging.

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — Colorado’s snowpack is lagging behind even last year’s meager Dec. 1 readings and water storage is even farther behind, indicating that the state’s water managers and users face another rough year unless some big late winter and spring storms roll through the Rockies.

As of Jan. 1, the statewide snowpack was at 70 percent of average and 9 percent behind last year’s reading on the same date — the fourth-lowest total in the past 32 years.

“Conditions could have been much worse if we had not received the moisture we did in December,” said Phyllis Ann Philipps, sttate conservationist with the Natural Resources Conservation Service. (more…)

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Summit Voice: 2012 in review

Posted on December 30, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

February top stories and headlines

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2012 was a dry year, but a February snowstorm set some Denver records.

FRISCO — February 2012 roared out like a lion, with plenty of snow in the last few days of the month, but overall the month was dry, foreshadowing the unprecedented March meltdown and record-warmth that set the stage for the spring and summer drought. But not without a classic February storm that set some records in Denver: Weather: Storm sets Denver snowfall records.

Around the West, energy corporations tried to battle back against a temporary ban on uranium mining around the Grand Canyon, challenging the federal government with a lawsuit: Grand Canyon-area uranium mining ban faces lawsuit.

More studies showed that melting Arctic ice is likely to have profound affects on mid-latitude weather patterns, including extended droughts and more intense storms: Global warming: Arctic ice loss has profound impact on weather patterns over North America, Asia and Europe. (more…)

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