Global warming likely to be at high end of forecast range

Posted on November 9, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

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More accurate assessment of cloud dynamics and atmospheric processes in the subtropics the key to more accurate predictions

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — By now, everybody knows the Earth is steadily getting warmer. The big unanswered question is just how much more temperatures will rise, and a new analysis by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research suggests the increases will be at the high end of predicted spectrum.

The key to the findings were accurate assessments of moisture processes in the atmosphere over the subtropics, according to NCAR scientists John Fasullo and Kevin Trenberth.

The seasonal drying in the subtropics and the associated decrease in clouds, especially during May through August, serve as a good analog for patterns projected by climate models.

“The dry subtropics are a critical element in our future climate,” Fasullo says. “If we can better represent these regions in models, we can improve our predictions and provide society with a better sense of the impacts to expect in a warming world.” (more…)

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Climate: Record high temps ever more frequent

Posted on January 13, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Statistical analysis meshes with climate model results

This graphic shows the ratio of record daily highs to record daily lows observed at about 1,800 weather stations in the 48 contiguous United States from January 1950 through September 2009. Each bar shows the proportion of record highs (red) to record lows (blue) for each decade. The 1960s and 1970s saw slightly more record daily lows than highs, but in the last 30 years record highs have increasingly predominated, with the ratio now about two-to-one for the 48 states as a whole. (©UCAR, graphic by Mike Shibao.)

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — A continuing trend toward more daily high temperature records is yet another sign of the steadily warming climate, according to the Boulder-based National Center for Atmospheric Research, which this week released a comprehensive study of temperature statistics across the U.S.

“Climate change is making itself felt in terms of day-to-day weather in the United States,” says Gerald Meehl, the lead author and a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. “The ways these records are being broken show how our climate is already shifting.” (more…)

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Wolverines face dire global warming threat

Posted on February 10, 2011 by Bob Berwyn

Study suggests wolverine habitat could melt away by mid-century

A new climate change study casts doubt on the ability of wolverines to survive in the face of climate change. PHOTO COURTESY NATIONAL PARK SERVICE.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — A targeted climate-change study by scientists with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder suggests that rising temperatures may completely eliminate existing habitat for wolverines in the contiguous United States.

“The researchers combined regional-scale climate projections with knowledge of a single species and its unique habitat to examine its vulnerability to a changing climate,” says Sarah Ruth, program director in National Science Foundations Directorate for Geosciences, which funds NCAR. “This study is an example of how targeted climate predictions can produce new insights that could help us reduce the impact of future climate change on delicate ecosystems,” she said.

Climate change is likely to imperil the wolverine in two ways: Reducing or eliminating the springtime snow cover that wolverines rely on for raising their young, and increasing August temperatures well beyond what the species may be able to tolerate. (more…)

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Melting ice only one factor in rising sea levels

Posted on July 16, 2010 by Bob Berwyn

Melting ice caps are not the only thing driving rising sea levels, according researchers from the University of Colorado and the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Shifts in currents and winds also affecting sea level, with potential impacts in low-lying coastal zones

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Colorado scientists who teamed up to study rising sea levels say some low-lying areas in the Pacific could be hit especially hard as global temperatures continue to climb. Because of complex patterns of ocean currents and winds, sea level is actually falling slightly in other areas, the researchers concluded.

The study, led by scientists at the University of Colorado at Boulder and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, also in Boulder, finds that the sea-level rise is at least partly a result of climate change. The changes are especially intense along the coastlines of the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, as well as the islands of Sri Lanka, Sumatra and Java, the research found.

The key player in the process is the Indo-Pacific warm pool, an enormous, bathtub-shaped area spanning a huge area of the tropical oceans stretching from the east coast of Africa west to the International Date Line in the Pacific. (more…)

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‘Missing’ heat shows gaps in climate research

Posted on April 18, 2010 by Bob Berwyn
A photo of the sun.

Colorado scientists are trying to track the missing heat in the global climate equation. PHOTO COURTESY USGS.

Boulder-based scientists say existing data can’t account for all the incoming solar energy

By Summit Voice
SUMMIT COUNTY — Scientists with the Boulder-based National Center for Atmospheric Research say about half the heat that’s built up on Earth in recent years can’t be traced by existing satellites, ocean sensors and other existing instruments.

The “missing” heat may be building up deep in the oceans or elsewhere in the climate system. Pinpointing the buildup of energy in the planet’s climate system is critical to understanding how the climate may change, says NCAR researcher Kevin Trenberth, the lead author of an article published last week in Science. (more…)

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Global warming: The simple things may help

Posted on February 17, 2010 by Bob Berwyn

A construction crew works on a white roof in Washington, D.C. Photo by Maria-José Viñas courtesy the American Geophysical Union.

Boulder researchers say painting city roofs white could lower urban temperatures significantly to partly offset global warming impacts

By Bob Berwyn

SUMMIT COUNTY — People who spend time outdoors in warm climates have long known that white clothes reflect sunlight and help keep their bodies cooler. Now, scientists with the Boulder-based National Center for Atmospheric Research say they’ve used computer models to show that —hypothetically — summer afternoon temperatures in the New York City area could be cooled by about 2 degrees if all the rooftops were painted white.

“Our research demonstrates that white roofs, at least in theory, can be an effective method for reducing urban heat,” said NCAR scientist Keith Oleson, lead author of the study. “It remains to be seen if it’s actually feasible for cities to paint their roofs white, but the idea certainly warrants further investigation.”

“It’s critical to understand how climate change will affect vulnerable urban areas, which are home to most of the world’s population,” said Gordon Bonan, a co-author of the study. The EPA maintains a web site about excessive heat events and the heat island effect here.

(more…)

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