Climate: Study looks at changing monsoon patterns

Posted on March 22, 2013 by Bob Berwyn

Natural climate variables so far outweigh global warming impacts

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The North American monsoon is an important climate factor in the Rocky Mountains.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — The timing and amount of monsoon rains in the northern hemisphere have important economic and environmental ramifications, for example for farmers in Asia and the wildfire season in the southwestern U.S.

As a result, climate researchers have been trying to determine how the Earth’s steady warming will affect those seasonal rainfall patterns, and so far, the jury is still out. Some recent research has suggested that the timing of the North American monsoon might be delayed, while other studies have indicated that there could be an overall increase in monsoon precipitation.

In one of the latest studies, scientists with the International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, say that monsoon rainfall patterns appear to more influenced by natural long-term swings in ocean surface temperatures. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation or mega-El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which has lately been in a mega-La Niña or cool phase is one key factor, and shifts in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, also contributes to the intensification of monsoon rainfall. (more…)

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Global warming could dry up Asian monsoon

Posted on November 6, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

A NASA map shows patterns of monsoon rain distribution.

Study shows how warming temps will displace critical high pressure systems

By Summit Voice

Global warming could cause frequent and severe failures of the Indian summer monsoon in the next two centuries, according to researchers with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Potsdam University.

The effects of these unprecedented changes would be extremely detrimental to India’s economy which relies heavily on the monsoon season to bring fresh water to the farmlands.

“Our study points to the possibility of even more severe changes to monsoon rainfall caused by climatic shifts that may take place later this century and beyond.,” said lead author Jacob Schewe. (more…)

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Summit County: Summer rainfall, temps above average

Posted on September 8, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Local area an exception to statewide drought conditions

Summer monsoon rains brought slight relief from drought conditions in parts of Colorado.

Summer precipitation was below average across almost all of Colorado. Graphic courtesy National Weather Service.

By Bob Berwyn

FRISCO — Summer precipitation was a mixed bag in Summit County, with above average totals in July but less than average rainfall in August, as the monsoon rains petered out. Statewide, conditions remained very dry, with the exception of a small pocket of the high country centered on Eagle, Summit and Lake counties, as well as parts of the San Juans.

Breckenridge-based weather watcher Rick Bly reported 4.21 inches of rain in July, well above the average 2.32 inches. That moisture boosted the year-to-date total to 92 percent of average, amazing considering the widespread drought conditions in Colorado. (more…)

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Colorado: A weather rant

Posted on August 31, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Showers remain in the forecast. Map courtesy NWS.

Lingering monsoon still shaping high country forecast

By Bob Berwyn

SUMMIT COUNTY — The trend of economically motivated weather forecasting by some pundits in the high country is just about as persistent as this summer’s monsoon rains have been. Most recently, the local newspaper took a stab at predicting Labor Day weekend weather about a week ago, calling for dry and sunny conditions.

Well, guess what? Labor Day weekend is here, and it looks like it might be a good idea to keep a rain jacket handy, as the showery pattern is likely to persist for the next few days.

“This is likely to continue until we see a major shift in the upper air pattern over the West,” the National Weather Service wrote in its daily weather discussion, and looking outside at the thunderstorms building over Buffalo Mountain suggests that forecast might be fairly accurate. (more…)

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Colorado: Denver records hottest-ever July

Posted on August 2, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

More warm temps ahead, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

New all-time high temperature average beats Dust Bowl reading by 1.1 degrees

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Temperature records continue to fall in Colorado, as July ended up being the hottest ever for Denver, breaking the previous record by 1.1 degrees, based on statistics going back to 1872.

The average temperature for the months was 78.9 degrees, topping the Dust Bowl-era record of 77.8 degrees set in 1934. (more…)

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Colorado: Massive fish kill linked with monsoon debris

Posted on July 27, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Thousands of fish reported dead in Glenwood Canyon area

A big stretch of the Colorado River was impacted by silt and sediment that killed thousands of suckers and trout.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY —Thousands of fish, already stressed by low flows and warm water temperatures, likely died Tuesday night when heavy monsoon rains sent tons of debris and sediment into the Colorado River above Dotsero.

Workers at the Shoshone Hydroelectric Power plant first reported seeing dead fish near the plant on Wednesday. By early Friday morning, Colorado Parks and Wildlife officials reported thousands of dead fish along the river.

“I have never seen the river this full of debris,” said parks and wildlife area manager Perry Will.

“Many of the fish we inspected had fine silt on their gills,” said Kendall Bakich, aquatic biologist for Colorado Parks and Wildlife in Glenwood Springs. “At this point, we believe that this is what led to the mortality, but we are continuing to investigate.”

Wildlife officials say that some dead fish will continue to travel down river and may be visible to anyone traveling along the river; however, they advise that the fish all died several days ago and they do not expect continued fish mortality.

Most of the fish that were killed were both native and non-native suckers, along with a few trout. According to Bakich, suckers are more susceptible to heavy debris and sediment in the water because they are bottom dwellers.

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Colorado: Monsoon brings some drought relief

Posted on July 23, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Some mountain weather stations reporting above-average July rain

Parts of Colorado saw significant rainfall in the first half of July.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — July rainfall through the middle of the month was well above average at many mountain weather stations, with Dillon, for example, reporting 1.94 inches through July 17, more than twice the average .92 inches. Estes Park and Georgetown both reported about triple their average rainfall amounts for the period, but drought conditions still persist across much of the state.

But for the year to-date, Dillon is still more than 2 inches off the pace, with total precipitation at 64 percent of average. Estes Park is down more than 5 inches for the year to-date, at 43 percent of average, and Georgetown is down almost 4 inches, at 59 percent of normal.

Thanks to the rain, drought conditions were downgraded from exceptional to extreme in southwest Jackson and northwest Grand counties, but even with the monsoon precipitation extreme drought conditions persisted across north-central and northeast Colorado.

Here’s why: In between rainstorms, temperatures remained well above average, resulting high rates of evapotranspiration, continuing to decrease soil moisture. In the hardest-hit areas, about 45,000 acres of crops, mainly wheat, have completely failed. Some farmers in northeast Colorado have abandoned alfalfa fields to save water from corn. (more…)

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Morning photo: Monsoon moisture

Posted on July 18, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Finally!

Early morning sunshine highlights dew drops on aspen leaves.

SUMMIT COUNTY —The rains came, at least for a few days, leaving the high country gloriously damp and sparkly in the early morning sunlight. Nuff said … (more…)

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Colorado: Early monsoon eyed for drought relief, but hazy skies may inhibit thunderstorm formation and precipitation

Posted on June 21, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Some forecast scenarios call for some monsoon moisture starting next week

Will the monsoon bring drought relief? Graphic courtesy Mike Baker, National Weather Service.

By Bob Berwyn

SUMMIT COUNTY — An early monsoon season may bring some moisture relief to parched and fire-prone Colorado as soon as next week — but there’s also a chance that smoke from regional wildfires could inhibit the formation of thunderstorms during the summer rainy season.

“Next week may be the peak of fire danger, then there is a hint the monsoon may come early … it’s going to be very interesting to watch,” said Boulder-based NOAA scientist Klaus Wolter, a researcher with the Earth Systems Research Laboratory.

The Rocky Mountain monsoon season usually starts in mid-July and lasts for about a month, with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and subtropical eastern Pacific streaming into the region from the south. (more…)

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Summit County: Monsoon dries up, sunny skies ahead

Posted on August 6, 2011 by Bob Berwyn

Drier air is pushing into western Colorado.

Seasonal shift under way as westerlies strengthen

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — After some dramatic midnight thunder-boomers, look for dry and sunny weather for the rest of the weekend as drier air moves into the Colorado high country.  There was still some convection in northwest Colorado early Saturday morning, so you can’t completely rule out the chance of isolated thunderstorms.

The change from the monsoon pattern of the past few weeks is part of a timely season shift as the westerlies gradually start strengthening over the West and the northern Rockies.

That doesn’t mean the monsoon won’t make an encore appearance. August can go back and forth between the southerly flow that brings moist subtropical air to the region, and the drier winds from the West. But for the weekend and a good part of next week, the outlook is for fair weather as a jet stream passing over Wyoming and northern Colorado bends the monsoonal flow to the east and south. (more…)

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