Colorado: No El Niño, no La Niña – what’s driving the weather?

Posted on March 18, 2013 by Bob Berwyn

Spring outlook trends toward warm and dry conditions

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The Madden-Julian Oscillation has played a role in Colorado weather this winter.

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — With neither El Niño or a La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, long-range weather forecasters have been struggling to develop confidence in their outlook for the coming spring season — a critical time for much of the West in terms of getting some relief from drought conditions.

A wet and cool spring could at least take the edge off the drought in some areas, helping to maintain stream flows and reduce the potential for massive and dangerous wildfires. Conversely, a return to last year’s very dry and warm spring pattern would spell trouble for places like Colorado.

So if the El Niño-La Niña cycle isn’t driving the weather, what is? What we do know is that conditions over the Pacific Ocean are the key to understanding exactly what path storms will take across the western United States, and that conditions in the North Atlantic can also be a factor. (more…)

Filed under: climate and weather, Colorado, Drought, El Niño, La Niña, Summit County Colorado, Weatherblog | Tagged: , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Weather: There’s more to it than La Niña

Posted on December 26, 2011 by Bob Berwyn

Madden-Julian Oscillation seen as key weather factor this winter

Most storms have swung south of Colorado so far this winter. Click on the graphic to see the entire power point presentation for Colorado's January to March outlook.

By Bob Berwyn

SUMMIT COUNTY — Colorado-based meteorologists say they think they know why this winter’s La Niña has misbehaved so far. According to the January – March outlook from the the National Weather Service in Boulder, an active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation has masked La Niña up to now, sending strong pulses of tropical moisture across the Pacific and into the southwestern Quadrant of the U.S.

The resulting weather pattern has looked much more like an El Niño phase of the Pacific cycle, but the good news (for Colorado) is that the Madden-Julian phase has weakened. That means that a more typical La Niña pattern — with a storm track out of the northwest — may once again begin to dominate Colorado weather. (more…)

Filed under: climate and weather, Colorado, El Niño, La Niña, Summit County news, Summit County snow and weather | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

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