Hurricane Hilary may turn toward Baja

Posted on September 27, 2011 by Bob Berwyn

Remnants of Ophelia may redevelop; Philippe no threat to land

Hurricane Hilary is visible in the lower right part of the NOAA GOES satellite image. Click on the image to see the animated version.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Hurricane Hilary regained strength Monday, redeveloping sustained winds of 135 mph as it continued to move west over warm waters and in a low wind-shear environment. The storm is expected to weaken during the next few days as it moves over cooler water, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Whether or not Hilary will curve sharply north and potentially affect Baja is still unclear. Some of the forecast models show the storm making a sharp jog to the northeast Wednesday, on a path that could lead Hilary toward the southern end of the peninsula, but other forecasts suggest the hurricane will once again start heading out into the open waters of the Pacific. Check the NHC forecast discussion for more details. (more…)

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Maria weakens, warnings discontinued

Posted on September 10, 2011 by Bob Berwyn

Tropical Storm Maria is advancing on the eastern Caribbean islands.

Maria falls apart due to shear, warnings dropped, storm could regain strength the next few days

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Tropical Storm Maria weakened over night and tropical storm warning have been dropped in Guadeloupe, St, Maartin, Saba and St. Eustatius, Antigua, Anguilla, Barbuda, Montserrat, Nevis, Sait Kitts and the British Virgin Islands, as well as Dominica, St. Barthelemy, St, Marteen and Martinique, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Maria will move over the Leeward Islands Saturday and approach the Virgin Islands by Saturday night. The storm is forecast to produce only a few inches of rain. (more…)

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Maria weakens, Nate gets stronger in the Gulf

Posted on September 9, 2011 by Bob Berwyn

Both storms are posing some challenges for meteorologists

Tropical storms Maria and Nate are not looking impressive in this GOES image, but this is the time of year when tropical cyclones can quickly gain strength as they pass over warm water.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Tropical Storm Maria weakened as it moved west toward the Leeward Islands, but forecasters with the National Hurricane Center the cyclone could re-group and gain strength in a few days when it reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea, north of Puerto Rico.

Late Thursday, Maria’s top sustained wind speeds hovered around 45 mph, with satellite images showing deep convection only north of the storm’s center. Air Force hurricane hunters flew into the storm but couldn’t report whether Maria still has defined center of circulation. With a variety of other weather systems potentially affecting Maria, forecast models are having a hard time pinpointing the storm’s intensity and track. But the consensus of the models is that the storm will maintain its current strength the next 24 hours, then gradually strengthen back to near-hurricane force as it moves toward the southeastern coast of the U.S.

Some models are forecasting a sharp turn to the north, away from land, while others suggest there is a chance Maria could make landfall somewhere along the East Coast.

Tropical Storm Nate, spinning over the southern Gulf of Mexico, could turn into a powerful storm with 105 mph winds in the next couple of days. The storm is expected to affect Mexico for the next few days, with high waves and heavy rainfall already reported over parts of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Nate is expected to move north and then take a sharp turn to the west, slamming into the Mexican coast south of Texas early next week.

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Three tropical systems in the Atlantic: Katia, Maria & Nate

Posted on September 8, 2011 by Bob Berwyn

Maria’s path could take it toward the southeastern U.S.

Three tropical cyclones are visible in the GOES satellite image of the tropical Atlantic region.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — The Atlantic hurricane season is starting to peak, with three tropical systems now churning: Hurricane Katia, turning north and away from land, Tropical Storm Maria, bearing down on the Windward Islands and Tropical Storm Nate, wobbling in the Southern Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Katia will curve northeast and away from the U.S.

Katia is still packing sustained winds of 80 mph but has become an asymmetric storm, with most of the deep convection on the eastern side of the eye. By Friday, the storm will start moving swiftly to the northeast, becoming extratropical sometime during the weekend and possibly affecting northern Scotland next week, according to the latest forecast discussion from the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Storm Maria, with 50 mph winds, is heading west and could threaten the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico early in the weekend. The storm is facing significant shear from the southwest and isn’t expected to intensify dramatically. The current forecast models call for Maria to reach minimal hurricane strength by Saturday, with 70 mph winds. (more…)

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Tropical Storm Irene strengthens, aims for Puerto Rico

Posted on August 21, 2011 by Bob Berwyn

A strengthening Tropical Storm Irene is just west of Puerto Rico in this NOAA satellie image.

Storm expected intensify and reach hurricane force

By Summit Voice

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SUMMIT COUNTY — Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center said Sunday morning they expect Tropical Storm Irene to reach Hurricane strength soon and have upgraded tropical storm warnings to hurricane warnings in Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra. A hurricane watch is now in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The strongest winds are north of the center of circulation, and the storm is expected to pass near Puerto Rico Sunday night on its west-northwestward path, reaching hurricane strength, with 75 mph winds, by the time it reaches Hispaniola.

Maximum sustained winds are at 50 mph with tropical-storm force winds extending out about 150 miles from the center of the storm. The strengthening storm will drop 4 to 7 inches of rain across some of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. (more…)

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Tropical Storm Irene forms in the eastern Caribbean

Posted on August 20, 2011 by Bob Berwyn

Trpoical storm Irene could take aim at Southern Florida next week.

Warnings issued for Puerto Rico and other Caribbean islands

By Summit Voice

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SUMMIT COUNTY — A depression just east of the Lesser Antilles quickly strengthened Saturday afternoon to become Tropical Storm Irene, the ninth named storm of the season. Irene has already spurred tropical storm warnings in parts of the eastern Caribbean and could reach hurricane strength in the next few days, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Atmospheric circulation around a large mid-level ridge is expected to steer the storm west-northwest the next two or three days, with most models showing a track toward Hispaniola and south of Puerto Rico. Depending on its exact path, Irene could weaken as it runs into the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, or strengthen if it stays south of the islands over open water, according to the NHC forecast discussion. (more…)

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