Climate: No slowdown in CO2 emissions in 2012

Posted on December 27, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Capping temperature increase at 2 degrees is almost unattainable

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Global temperatures were well above average in Nov. 2012. Map courtesy NASA.

By Summit Voice

FRISCO —With 2012 winding down, climate scientists are taking stock of progress on controlling heat-trapping greenhouse gases, and the general conclusion is that it’s just about too late to stop the plunge off the climate cliff.

Researchers with the Global Carbon Project said in a report earlier this month that reductions required to limit global warming to the targeted 2 degrees Celsius are becoming a receding goal.

“A shift to a 2-degree Celsius pathway requires an immediate, large, and sustained global mitigation effort” said Global Carbon Project director Dr. Pep Canadell. (more…)

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Global warming: Eastern U.S. to see more heatwaves, rain

Posted on December 18, 2012 by Bob Berwyn
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University of Tennessee researchers say the eastern U.S. can expect more heatwaves and increased precipitation in a warming world. Image courtesy NASA.

New climate model pinpoints predictions down to the city level

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — As climate models become more sophisticated, researchers have started to fine-tune global warming impacts to the regional level, including more drought and water shortages expected in the Southwest, seasonal ice-free conditions in the Arctic, and hotter, wetter conditions in the Eastern U.S., according to a new University of Tennessee study.

The researchers, Joshua Fu, a civil and environmental engineering professor, and Yang Gao, a graduate research assistant, say heat waves will become more severe in most regions of the eastern United States and, that both the Northeast and Southeast will see a drastic increase in precipitation. (more…)

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Study confirms heating effects of greenhouse gas buildup

Posted on November 30, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Doubling of CO2 likely to result in 2.2 to 4.8 degrees Celsius warming

New research helps pinpoint the amount of heating caused by greenhouse gases.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Climate scientists know that greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane trap heat in the atmosphere, but there’s still some uncertainty about how the overall system responds to varying levels of those gases.

By studying the paleoclimatic record, researchers have been able to measure relationships between past greenhouse gas increases and temperatures to some degree, and new research is helping them evaluate past climate sensitivity data to help improve comparison with estimates of long-term climate projections developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The scientists found that the likely range of climate sensitivity consistently has been of the order of 2.2 to 4.8 degrees Celsius per doubling of CO2, which closely agrees with the IPCC estimates. (more…)

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Global warming: Sea level rising much faster than forecast

Posted on November 28, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Observational data is piling up and showing that sea level rise is exceeding the rate predicted by the IPCC

Glaciers and ice caps are melting, and sea level is rising even faster than forecast by the IPCC. Photos courtesy NASA. (Click the image for more information.)

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Sea levels during the past two decades are rising 60 percent faster than the general estimates made by the IPCC, according to new research published this week in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

The scientists with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Tempo Analytics and Laboratoire d’Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales said that, while temperature rises appear to be consistent with the projections made in the IPCC’s fourth assessment report , satellite measurements show that sea-levels are rising at a rate of 3.2 mm a year compared to the best estimate of 2 mm a year in the report.

“This study shows once again that the IPCC is far from alarmist, but in fact has under-estimated the problem of climate change,” said lead author Stefan Rahmstorf. “That applies not just for sea-level rise, but also to extreme events and the Arctic sea-ice loss.” (more…)

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Climate: Ocean temps rising especially fast along coasts

Posted on September 29, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Venice is at-risk to rising sea level. Photo by Bob Berwyn.

Heat island effect may drive rising sea levels, creating extra risk for populated coastal areas

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Scientists with the UK’s University of Southampton say they may have documented another unanticipated global warming feedback loop, as sea surface temperatures in coastal regions appears to be rising up to 10 times faster than the global average.

Based on a study in the famed Venice Lagoon, the researchers said they think the warming is due at least in part to the urban heat island effect, with highly developed areas radiating extra heat to their surroundings. The findings suggest the sea surface temperature increases driven by the heat island effect may outpace other factors in coastal areas. (more…)

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Global warming: Top stories of 2011

Posted on December 31, 2011 by Bob Berwyn

The year of the tipping point?

Is Colorado a hotspot for global warming?

By Bob Berwyn

SUMMIT COUNTY — If 2011 goes down as the year that global warming awareness reached a critical mass, it could be attributed to the spate of unusual weather events around the globe. From massive tornado outbreaks in the Midwest, to heatwaves, Mississippi flooding, droughts and more, there appears to be growing acceptance of the fact that the Earth’s changing climate is creating more and more damage and displacement.

That doesn’t mean every year from now on is going to be the same — it’s not a linear equation. But, on the whole, the scientific consensus is that more heat and water vapor in the atmosphere, as well as higher sea levels, generally spell trouble for humankind. Formally, this recognition was expressed in a recent report from the IPCC: New IPCC report links climate change and extreme weather.

The growing public acceptance may also be reflected by the increasingly shrill tone of the last few global warming deniers. On web sites like the ironically named Real Science, poster have taken to name-calling, and characterizing respected climate researchers as “morons” and worse.

And it’s not just coastal areas. Earlier this year, the National Weather released its new “climate normals,” and Colorado stands out like a sore thumb on a national map as the state with biggest jump in average maximum temperatures based on the 30-year increments NOAA uses to establish those baselines: Is Colorado Ground Zero for global warming? (more…)

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Global warming: NASA study sees dramatic ecoystem shifts

Posted on December 23, 2011 by Bob Berwyn

Climate change could convert nearly 40 percent of the Earth’s land-based ecosystems

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By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY —Global warming and climate change has the potential to change plant communities across nearly half the Earth’s land surface and drive the conversion of nearly 40 percent of land-based ecosystems from one major ecological community type, changing forest to grasslands and tundra to forest, for example.

Most of Earth’s land that is not covered by ice or desert is projected to undergo at least a 30 percent change in plant cover – changes that will require humans and animals to adapt and often relocate.

Ecologically sensitive hotspots will see the greatest degree of species turnover, including the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau, eastern equatorial Africa, Madagascar, the Mediterranean region, southern South America, and North America’s Great Lakes and Great Plains areas. (more…)

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New IPCC report links climate change and extreme weather

Posted on November 19, 2011 by Bob Berwyn

Extreme weather events are likely to become more frequent, according to a new IPCC report.

Threat of floods, drought expected to grow

By Summit Voice

A new report by some of the world’s top researchers suggests that a steadily warming planet will probably contribute to more frequent and intense extreme weather events during the coming decades.

“We’ve all been experiencing these extreme weather events, and this report provides the strongest evidence of the links between impacts dangerous weather and climate change,” said Steve Hamburg, chief scientist for Environmental Defense Fund. “Now we need to start using this data to find ways to protect ourselves and our communities.”

The November 18 report is from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It synthesizes two years work from 100 experts who analyze data from all over the world. Their conclusion: climate change is bringing us more extreme weather, and it’s likely to get worse and have greater negative impacts over the next century.

Impacts in the United States include:

  • Higher temperatures and more hot days through the next century (Record-breaking heat that would have been a once-in-20-year high are likely to become a one-in-two-year event)
  • More frequent and heavier rains, especially in winter
  • Stronger hurricanes that will do more damage
  • Increased droughts, especially in the center of the country
  • Higher sea levels, which means more coastal erosion and other damage

All these changes will affect  agriculture, water supplies, health, and tourism, the report concludes, advocating for more proactive planning to manage the risks associated with more extreme weather. Another recent report shows that extreme weather events are taking a huge economic toll.

Researchers expect drought to become frequent and last longer. MAP COURTESY IPCC.

(more…)

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Global warming: IPCC set to release report on managing risks of extreme weather events related to climate change

Posted on November 13, 2011 by Bob Berwyn

A NASA satellite image of Earth, with Hurricane Irene spinning of the southeastern coast of the U.S.

International efforts represent recognition that climate change is increasing the risk for extreme weather events

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Extreme weather events during the past year has spurred increasing discussions about a possible link between global climate change tornado outbreaks and flooding, for example.

Most climate researchers  agree that climate doesn’t directly cause any single weather event, but that global warming can increase the odds of events like last year’s catastrophic Russian heat wave, or extreme droughts in the southwestern U.S.

At the highest levels of many governments, talk is less about whether there is a link and more focused on how to manage the consequences and adapt to those increased risks.

That focus will culminate next week, when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change releases a special report on managing the risks of extreme events and disasters and to advance adaptive measures. (more…)

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UN climate panel adopts strict reporting standards

Posted on May 16, 2011 by Bob Berwyn

Global climate change panel preparing new overall assessment of impacts

New standards will bolster credibility of IPCC reports.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which has been a whipping boy for the global-warming deniers on the fringe of the climate debate, last week adopted stringent new standards that will give the panel even more credibility as it tries to provide an international framework for dealing with the spiraling climate change crisis.

“I feel gratified that the process that the UN Secretary-General and I initiated a little over a year ago requesting InterAcademy Council to review the IPCC’s processes and procedures has culminated in such a successful outcome,” said IPCC chair Rajendra Pachauri. “The 194 governments which constitute the IPCC have put in enormous efforts to analyze the challenges facing the panel, study the recommendations carefully and come up with decisions that strengthen its work.” (more…)

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