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Study says odds are sea level will rise 3 feet by 2100

Denmark-based research team seeks to pinpoint ice sheet melt factor

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Large parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast could be swamped by rising seas.

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Coastal tidal flooding is already causing transportation problems near Venice, Louisiana, USA. bberwyn photo

Staff Report

FRISCO — Developing accurate projections for sea level rise has been an elusive, high-priority goal for climate scientists. It’s certain that sea level will keep rising for centuries to come. But it’s not clear at what rate and pace that will happen, especially during the next few decades as coastal communities try to prepare.

Some factors, like thermal ocean expansion, can be established with some accuracy but researchers still aren’t sure exactly how the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will respond to warming.

In the latest number-crunching, scientists with the Niels Bohr Institute established that there’s little chance sea level will rise more than 1.8 meters (about 6 feet) by 2100. The results are published in the scientific journal Environmental Research Letters. Continue reading

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Is the Greenland Ice Sheet slip-sliding away?

How fast will the Greenland Ice Sheet melt? Map courtesy Change in Elevation over Greenland ICESat's precise elevation change measurements, combined with information from other technologies, are producing a comprehensive look at the behavior of Earth’s ice sheets -- critical for quantifying forecasts of sea level rise. Scientists used ICESat data to show changes in elevation over the Greenland ice sheet between 2003 and 2006. White regions indicate a slight thickening, while the blue shades indicate a thinning of the ice sheet. Gray indicates areas where no change in elevation was measured.  Credit: NASA Goddard's Scientific Visualization Studio

How fast will the Greenland Ice Sheet melt? Credit: NASA Goddard’s Scientific Visualization Studio.

New study probes role of subglacial runoff channels

Staff Report

FRISCO — Scientists continue to probe and poke at the Greenland Ice Sheet to try and figure out exactly how fast it will melt as global temperatures rise. In one of the newest studies, an international team drilled boreholes to measure melt rates and ice movements, finding that the story is even more complicated than we thought.

“Although the Greenland Ice Sheet initially speeds up each summer in its slow-motion race to the sea, the network of meltwater channels beneath the sheet is not necessarily forming the slushy racetrack that had been previously considered,” said Matthew Hoffman, a Los Alamos National Laboratory scientist on the project, which clarifies the evolution of the meltwater flow rates over the seasons. Continue reading

Global warming: Greenland, West Antarctic ice sheets losing volume at record pace

Loss of ice volume doubles in just 5 years

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Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets are losing volume at a record pace. bberwyn photo.

By Bob Berwyn

FRISCO —Detailed new data from satellites and other sources show the world’s major ice sheets losing volume at a record pace, faster than at any time since satellite measurements started about 20 years ago.

Since 2009, the rate of volume loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet has doubled, and the rate of volume loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has tripled, according to the new findings from the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research. Continue reading

Climate: Is the Greenland Ice Sheet near a tipping point?

How fast will the Greenland Ice Sheet melt? Map courtesy Change in Elevation over Greenland ICESat's precise elevation change measurements, combined with information from other technologies, are producing a comprehensive look at the behavior of Earth’s ice sheets -- critical for quantifying forecasts of sea level rise. Scientists used ICESat data to show changes in elevation over the Greenland ice sheet between 2003 and 2006. White regions indicate a slight thickening, while the blue shades indicate a thinning of the ice sheet. Gray indicates areas where no change in elevation was measured.  Credit: NASA Goddard's Scientific Visualization Studio

How fast will the Greenland Ice Sheet melt?
Credit: NASA Goddard’s Scientific Visualization Studio.

Detailed chemical analysis shows that southern portion of the ice sheet melted during historic warm phase

Staff Report

FRISCO —A period of global warming about 400,000 years ago may have pushed the Greenland Ice Sheet past a climate tipping point, resulting in widespread melting and raising sea level by more than 15 feet during a time when atmospheric temperatures were similar to current conditions.

The new study is one piece of a massive effort to understand how fast Greenland’s ice will melt as heat-trapping greenhouse gases force global temperatures upward. That melting will have huge implications for millions of people who live near coastlines, as well as for planners and policy makers trying to figure out how to prepare for the coming inundations. Continue reading

Climate: Study redefines Greenland Ice Sheet topography, finds greater risk of fast melting

How fast will the Greenland Ice Sheet melt? Map courtesy Change in Elevation over Greenland ICESat's precise elevation change measurements, combined with information from other technologies, are producing a comprehensive look at the behavior of Earth’s ice sheets -- critical for quantifying forecasts of sea level rise. Scientists used ICESat data to show changes in elevation over the Greenland ice sheet between 2003 and 2006. White regions indicate a slight thickening, while the blue shades indicate a thinning of the ice sheet. Gray indicates areas where no change in elevation was measured.  Credit: NASA Goddard's Scientific Visualization Studio

How fast will the Greenland Ice Sheet melt?
Credit: NASA Goddard’s Scientific Visualization Studio.

STAFF REPORT

FRISCO — New data on Greenland’s rugged shoreline topography doesn’t bode well for coastal cities around the world. A series of deep canyons stretching for miles under the Greenland Ice Sheet will enable warming ocean water to flow beneath the ice, accelerating melting and sea level rise, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Geoscience.

The bedrock canyons sit well below sea level, meaning that as subtropical Atlantic waters hit the fronts of hundreds of glaciers, those edges will erode much further than had been assumed and release far greater amounts of water, the study found. Continue reading

Wildfire ash a big factor in 2012 Greenland meltdown

In the images above, areas classified as “probable melt” (light pink) correspond to sites where at least one satellite detected surface melting. Areas classified as “melt” (dark pink) correspond to sites where two or three satellites detected melting.

Areas classified as “probable melt” (light pink) correspond to sites where at least one satellite detected surface melting. Areas classified as “melt” (dark pink) correspond to sites where two or three satellites detected melting.

Widespread surface melting become annual event by the end of this century

Staff Report

FRISCO — Widespread melting on the surface of the Greenland ice sheet was likely caused by a combination of warm temperatures and major depositions of soot and ash from wildfires in the western U.S. and Siberia. The ice sheet last saw a similar melting event in 1889, Dartmouth University scientists concluded in new research published this week in Nature.

“The widespread melting of the Greenland ice sheet required the combination of both of these effects — lowered snow albedo from ash and unusually warm temperatures — to push the ice sheet over the threshold,” said Kaitlin Keegan, the study’s lead author and a Dartmouth doctoral student. “With both the frequency of forest fires and warmer temperatures predicted to increase with climate change, widespread melt events are likely to happen much more frequently in the future.” Continue reading

Greenland’s ice sheet, past, present and future

A new study of the Greenland snowpack reached surprising conclusions about concentrations of carbon monoxide.

A new study of Greenland ice cores suggests parts of the ice sheet persisted through previous global warming spells.

Will there be a meltdown?

Staff Report

FRISCO — At least some parts of the Greenland ice sheet likely survived some of the warmest interludes in the Earth’s geologic climate history, researchers said last week as they announced findings of a study that discovered an ancient tundra landscape preserved under the Greenland Ice Sheet, below two miles of ice.

“We found organic soil that has been frozen to the bottom of the ice sheet for 2.7 million years,” said University of Vermont geologist and lead author Paul Bierman. The finding provides strong evidence that the Greenland Ice Sheet has persisted much longer than previously known, enduring through many past periods of global warming. Continue reading

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