Climate: NASA study reinforces grim wildfire projections

Posted on December 5, 2012 by Bob Berwyn
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Continuing drought in Colorado allowed the Fern Lake Fire in Rocky Mountain National Park to flare up in late November. Photo courtesy NPS/Dennis Geving.

Frequency of high wildfires expected to double by mid-century

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — This past summer’s drought and destructive wildfires in Colorado showed how just a short period of hot, dry weather intensifies fire conditions, and there’s more and more research suggesting that global warming will make things worse in the next few decades.

In one of the most recent studies, NASA scientists reported this week that wildfire activity is likely to increase significantly by the middle of the century, putting natural resources and human developments at even greater risk.

“Climate models project an increase in fire risk across the U.S. by 2050, based on a trend toward drier conditions that favor fire activity and an increase in the frequency of extreme events,” said Doug Morton, of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. (more…)

Filed under: climate and weather, Colorado, Environment, forest fires, forests, global warming, wildfires | Tagged: , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Climate: Global CO2 emissions to hit record high in 2012

Posted on December 2, 2012 by Bob Berwyn
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U.S. still by far the largest per capita emitter of greenhouse gases

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — As delegates to the COP 18 climate talks in Doha, Qatar struggle to find agreement on basic issues — like how to account accurately for greenhouse gas emissions — the Global Carbon Project is reporting that carbon dioxide emissions will climb by 2.6 percent in 2012 to reach a record high of 35.6 billion tons in 2012.

The biggest contributors to global emissions in 2011 were China (28 per cent), the United States (16 per cent), the European Union (11 per cent), and India (7 per cent). Overall, 2012 emissions are now 58 percent higher than in 1990, the baseline year for targets set under the Kyoto Protocol. (more…)

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Study confirms heating effects of greenhouse gas buildup

Posted on November 30, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Doubling of CO2 likely to result in 2.2 to 4.8 degrees Celsius warming

New research helps pinpoint the amount of heating caused by greenhouse gases.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Climate scientists know that greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane trap heat in the atmosphere, but there’s still some uncertainty about how the overall system responds to varying levels of those gases.

By studying the paleoclimatic record, researchers have been able to measure relationships between past greenhouse gas increases and temperatures to some degree, and new research is helping them evaluate past climate sensitivity data to help improve comparison with estimates of long-term climate projections developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The scientists found that the likely range of climate sensitivity consistently has been of the order of 2.2 to 4.8 degrees Celsius per doubling of CO2, which closely agrees with the IPCC estimates. (more…)

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Global warming: Report says permafrost carbon emissions must be included in global climate models and planning

Posted on November 27, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

A new report urges more monitoring of the Earth’s permafrost zones. Image courtesy NSIDC.

More monitoring of permafrost changes needed

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — With temperatures in polar regions rising twice as fast as the global average, there’s a good chance that between 30 to 85 percent of near-surface permafrost could melt, releasing billions of tons of carbon into the atmosphere by the end of the century.

But most existing climate models don’t accurately account for the impact of permafrost carbon dioxide and methane emissions, according to a new report from the United Nations Environment Program. The report recommends that the IPCC compile a special assessment report on permafrost. It also recommends that nations with extensive permafrost create national monitoring networks and make plans to mitigate the risks of thawing permafrost. These nations include Russia, Canada, China, and the United States.

“The infrastructure we have now is not adequate to monitor future changes in permafrost,” said lead author Kevin Schaefer, a research scientist at the Boulder-based National Snow and Ice Data Center. “We need to greatly expand our current networks to monitor permafrost, which requires direct investment of money and resources by individual countries,” Schaefer said, urging the IPCC to assess the impact of permafrost carbon dioxide and methane emissions in the negotiation of emissions targets and global climate change policy discussions. (more…)

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Climate: Greenhouse gases hit new record high in 2011

Posted on November 22, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Greenhouse gas concentrations are increasing.

Increased concentrations add up to 30 percent more heating effect in just the past 20 years

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — With heat-trapping greenhouse gases rising to a new record high in 2011, the World Meteorological Organization calculated that there has been a 30 percent increase in radiative forcing  – the warming effect on our climate – just in the past 20 years.

In its annual greenhouse gas bulletin, the WMO estimated that humankind has released about 375 billion tons of carbon the atmosphere as CO2 since the start of the industrial era in 1750. About half of this carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere, with the rest being absorbed by the oceans and terrestrial biosphere. (more…)

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Global warming: USGS researchers quantify potential greenhouse gas releases from melting Arctic permafrost

Posted on November 4, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Staggering amounts of nitrogen and carbon could lead to runaway warming in coming decades

Permafrost melting is expected to increase in coming decades.

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey say they’ve quantified the amount of greenhouse gases that could be released into the atmosphere as Arctic permafrost starts to melt.

“This study quantifies the impact on Earth’s two most important chemical cycles, carbon and nitrogen, from thawing of permafrost under future climate warming scenarios,” said USGS Director Marcia McNutt. “While the permafrost of the polar latitudes may seem distant and disconnected from the daily activities of most of us, its potential to alter the planet’s habitability when destabilized is very real.”

As much as 44 billion tons of nitrogen and 850 billion tons of carbon could be released into the environment as the region begins to thaw over the next century. This nitrogen and carbon are likely to impact ecosystems, the atmosphere, and water resources including rivers and lakes. For context, this is roughly the amount of carbon stored in the atmosphere today. (more…)

Filed under: Arctic, climate and weather, Environment, global warming | Tagged: , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Climate researchers issue stern warning on natural gas

Posted on October 29, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

“  … It is the total quantity of CO2 from the energy system that matters to the climate.”

Shale gas deposits around the world. Map courtesy Energy Information Administration.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Researchers at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change have finally called the hoopla surrounding natural gas for what it is — mostly fossil fuel propaganda.

“The proponents of shale gas have always claimed that it is a lower carbon alternative to coal,” said Chris Shearlock, sustainable development manager at The Co-operative, an institutional investor in oil firms. “However, this is only true if the coal it displaces remains in the ground and isn’t just burnt elsewhere. Without a cap on global carbon emissions, shale gas is burnt in addition to other fossil fuels, increasing total emissions.”

The Tyndall report points out that, while U.S. carbon dioxide emissions have dropped by 8.6 percent since 2005, more than half of the recent emissions reductions in the power sector may be displaced overseas by the trade in coal. (more…)

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Colorado Mountain Express says it’s happy with propane-fueled vans, may add more alt-fuel vehicles to mountain fleet

Posted on October 12, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Colorado Mountain Express says happy with tests of propane autogas-fueled vans. Photo courtesy CME.

Lower costs and reduced emissions help drive shift to gas-fueled passenger vehicles

By Bob Berwyn

SUMMIT COUNTY — If you’ve taken a ride to or from DIA recently in a Colorado Mountain Express van, there’s a chance you were aboard one of the four vehicles powered by propane, a relatively clean-burning fossil fuel that generates less greenhouse gas emissions.

CME, which operates about 200 vans in Colorado, has been testing the propane-powered vans recently and may add more of the vehicles to its fleet, especially if the refueling infrastructure grows in coming years, according to marketing and sales director John Dawsey. (more…)

Filed under: air quality, business, Colorado, energy, Environment, I-70, Technology, tourism, transportation | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Climate: Heat-trapping CO2 also makes ice more brittle

Posted on October 11, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

New MIT research suggests carbon dioxide has direct impact on glaciers and ice caps

Cracks in the ice on Dillon Reservoir, Dec. 25, 2012. Bob Berwyn photo.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Have you ever poured a can of warm coke into a glass full of ice cubes and listened to the cubes crack?

Something similar might be going on in the atmosphere, as MIT researchers have shown that direct exposure to carbon dioxide makes ice caps and glaciers more susceptible to cracking.

The study is the first to show this kind of a direct impact from increasing atmospheric CO2, which as a heat-trapping greenhouse gas is directly responsible for much of the increase in global temperatures during recent decades. (more…)

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Small fish make big splash in ocean carbon cycle

Posted on October 10, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Fish poop.

Research team studies role of forage fish in sequestering carbon

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — A still-popular first-grade book described the heroic efforts of a small fish to make a big splash. Now, it turns out that Arty’s dream wasn’t all that farfetched.

According to a new study by scientists with Rutgers University and the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, forage fish like anchovies can play an important role as a biological pump in the cycle that moves carbon dioxide from the atmosphere into the depths of the ocean, where its sequestered without adding to heat-trapping woes of atmospheric greenhouse gases.

Dr. Grace Saba, of Rutgers University, and professor Deborah Steinberg, of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, shifted their focus away from their long-term studies of copepods to looking at anchovies in the Santa Barbara Channel, off the California coast. (more…)

Filed under: Environment, Marine biology, ocean conservation | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

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