Greenhouse gas warming overrides all other climate signals

Posted on April 23, 2013 by Bob Berwyn

Late 20th century temperature spike reversed long cooling trend

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New study finds that Europe’s 2003 heatwave brought the hottest temperatures in 2000 years.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Heat-trapping greenhouse gases have driven global temperatures higher than at any other time during the past 1,400 years, according to a new study covering all seven continents. The big spike between 1971 and 2000 reversed a natural cooling trend that had lasted several hundred years, according to climate data from tree rings, pollen, cave formations, ice cores, lake and ocean sediments, and historical records from around the world.

“This paper tells us what we already knew, except in a better, more comprehensive fashion,” said study co-author Edward Cook, a tree-ring scientist at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory who led the Asia reconstruction. (more…)

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Global warming: New study suggests short-term focus on transient greenhouse gases could yield climate benefits

Posted on April 15, 2013 by Bob Berwyn
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Carbon dioxide levels continue to  rise with no solution in sight, but cutting other greenhouse gases might be easier.

Technological solutions at hand; swift action could give coastal communities more time to prepare for sea level rise

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — Even without tackling the buildup of atmospheric carbon dioxide, cutting methane, tropospheric ozone, hydrofluorocarbons, and black carbon could help limit sea level rise, seen as one of the most serious impacts of global warming.

Reducing pollutants that cycle through the atmosphere relatively quickly could temporarily forestall the rate of sea level rise by roughly 25 to 50 percent, according to new report from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate Central and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.

“To avoid potentially dangerous sea level rise, we could cut emissions of short-lived pollutants even if we cannot immediately cut carbon dioxide emissions,” said NCAR’s Aixue Hu, lead author author of the study. “This new research shows that society can significantly reduce the threat to coastal cities if it moves quickly on a handful of pollutants.” (more…)

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Global warming: New study sharpens ‘hockey stick’

Posted on March 7, 2013 by Bob Berwyn

Recent warming seen as unprecedented spike

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NASA data shows that almost the entire planet saw above-average temperatures in January.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Paleoclimatologists say they’ve managed to establish an accurate global temperature record going back about 11,000 years to the end of the last ice age, showing that the pace of warming during the past century is unprecedented.

There have been times during the Holocene when the Earth was warmer than it is now, but never before have temperatures spiked as dramatically, said Candace Major, program director in the National Science Foundation’s Division of Ocean Sciences. (more…)

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City cuts are the key to curbing global greenhouse gases

Posted on February 14, 2013 by Bob Berwyn
Large cities could be the key to controlling global greenhouse gas emissions. Bob Berwyn photo.

Reducing emissions in large cities could be the key to controlling global greenhouse gas emissions. Bob Berwyn photo.

New study outlines path toward 70 percent reductions

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — The greenhouse gas cuts needed to curb global warming at 2 degrees Celsius sometimes seem daunting when taken as a whole, but engineers and scientists have shown repeatedly that it can be done — and with existing technology, not some farfetched science fiction scheme.

Most recently, a University of Toronto Civil Engineering professor and a World Bank climate change specialist teamed up for a case study, showing how Toronto and other major cities could reduce greenhouse gas pollution by 70 percent in the long term by implementing aggressive but practical policy changes.

“Cities are where people live, where economic activity flourishes,” said the World Bank’s Lorraine Sugar. “Cities are where local actions can have global impact.”

“This is the sort of reduction the international community is calling for, so we can avoid the potentially serious consequences of climate change,” said Professor Kennedy. (more…)

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Climate: Study IDs new permafrost threat

Posted on February 12, 2013 by Bob Berwyn

Study suggests direct sunlight can trigger CO2 emissions from disturbed permafrost soils

USGS researchers make ground-based permafrost measurements in Alaska.

USGS researchers make ground-based permafrost measurements in Alaska.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Along with melting ice — one of the more obvious signs of global warming in the Arctic — the region is changing in other ways.

In some areas, long-frozen soils are melting and collapsing, forming potholes and other new landscape features, and the ancient carbon locked into those soils is extremely sensitive to sunlight. When it’s exposed, it releases heat-trapping carbon dioxide gas into the atmosphere much faster than previously thought, according to University of Michigan ecologist and aquatic biogeochemist George Kling.

Climate scientists have long known that melting permafrost will release huge amounts of CO2, but the new findings suggest that exposure to sunlight will speed the process. (more…)

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Climate: No slowdown in CO2 emissions in 2012

Posted on December 27, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Capping temperature increase at 2 degrees is almost unattainable

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Global temperatures were well above average in Nov. 2012. Map courtesy NASA.

By Summit Voice

FRISCO —With 2012 winding down, climate scientists are taking stock of progress on controlling heat-trapping greenhouse gases, and the general conclusion is that it’s just about too late to stop the plunge off the climate cliff.

Researchers with the Global Carbon Project said in a report earlier this month that reductions required to limit global warming to the targeted 2 degrees Celsius are becoming a receding goal.

“A shift to a 2-degree Celsius pathway requires an immediate, large, and sustained global mitigation effort” said Global Carbon Project director Dr. Pep Canadell. (more…)

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Climate: NASA study reinforces grim wildfire projections

Posted on December 5, 2012 by Bob Berwyn
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Continuing drought in Colorado allowed the Fern Lake Fire in Rocky Mountain National Park to flare up in late November. Photo courtesy NPS/Dennis Geving.

Frequency of high wildfires expected to double by mid-century

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — This past summer’s drought and destructive wildfires in Colorado showed how just a short period of hot, dry weather intensifies fire conditions, and there’s more and more research suggesting that global warming will make things worse in the next few decades.

In one of the most recent studies, NASA scientists reported this week that wildfire activity is likely to increase significantly by the middle of the century, putting natural resources and human developments at even greater risk.

“Climate models project an increase in fire risk across the U.S. by 2050, based on a trend toward drier conditions that favor fire activity and an increase in the frequency of extreme events,” said Doug Morton, of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. (more…)

Filed under: climate and weather, Colorado, Environment, forest fires, forests, global warming, wildfires | Tagged: , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Climate: Global CO2 emissions to hit record high in 2012

Posted on December 2, 2012 by Bob Berwyn
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U.S. still by far the largest per capita emitter of greenhouse gases

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — As delegates to the COP 18 climate talks in Doha, Qatar struggle to find agreement on basic issues — like how to account accurately for greenhouse gas emissions — the Global Carbon Project is reporting that carbon dioxide emissions will climb by 2.6 percent in 2012 to reach a record high of 35.6 billion tons in 2012.

The biggest contributors to global emissions in 2011 were China (28 per cent), the United States (16 per cent), the European Union (11 per cent), and India (7 per cent). Overall, 2012 emissions are now 58 percent higher than in 1990, the baseline year for targets set under the Kyoto Protocol. (more…)

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Study confirms heating effects of greenhouse gas buildup

Posted on November 30, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Doubling of CO2 likely to result in 2.2 to 4.8 degrees Celsius warming

New research helps pinpoint the amount of heating caused by greenhouse gases.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Climate scientists know that greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane trap heat in the atmosphere, but there’s still some uncertainty about how the overall system responds to varying levels of those gases.

By studying the paleoclimatic record, researchers have been able to measure relationships between past greenhouse gas increases and temperatures to some degree, and new research is helping them evaluate past climate sensitivity data to help improve comparison with estimates of long-term climate projections developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The scientists found that the likely range of climate sensitivity consistently has been of the order of 2.2 to 4.8 degrees Celsius per doubling of CO2, which closely agrees with the IPCC estimates. (more…)

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Global warming: Report says permafrost carbon emissions must be included in global climate models and planning

Posted on November 27, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

A new report urges more monitoring of the Earth’s permafrost zones. Image courtesy NSIDC.

More monitoring of permafrost changes needed

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — With temperatures in polar regions rising twice as fast as the global average, there’s a good chance that between 30 to 85 percent of near-surface permafrost could melt, releasing billions of tons of carbon into the atmosphere by the end of the century.

But most existing climate models don’t accurately account for the impact of permafrost carbon dioxide and methane emissions, according to a new report from the United Nations Environment Program. The report recommends that the IPCC compile a special assessment report on permafrost. It also recommends that nations with extensive permafrost create national monitoring networks and make plans to mitigate the risks of thawing permafrost. These nations include Russia, Canada, China, and the United States.

“The infrastructure we have now is not adequate to monitor future changes in permafrost,” said lead author Kevin Schaefer, a research scientist at the Boulder-based National Snow and Ice Data Center. “We need to greatly expand our current networks to monitor permafrost, which requires direct investment of money and resources by individual countries,” Schaefer said, urging the IPCC to assess the impact of permafrost carbon dioxide and methane emissions in the negotiation of emissions targets and global climate change policy discussions. (more…)

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