WMO: Global warming drives more climate disruption

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Earth is warming inexorably. Satellite image via NASA’s Blue Marble collection.

World’s top meteorological body concerned about global trends

By Summit Voice

FRISCO —Climate-sensitive economic sectors like agriculture and energy are already feeling the pinch of more extreme fluctuations in the weather, driven by global climate change, according to the World Meteorological Organization, which released its annual climate statement for 2012 last week.

“It is vital that we continue to invest in the observations and research that will improve our knowledge about climate variability and climate change,” said WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud. “We need to understand how much of the extra heat captured by greenhouse gases is being stored in the oceans and the consequences this brings in terms of ocean acidification and other impacts,” Jarraud said in the statement. (more…)

Report eyes Pacific Northwest climate change threats

Marine sanctuaries try to prepare for rising sea level, ocean acidification and more extreme weather

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A new report identifies anticipated climate change impacts to the Olympic Peninsula. Photo courtesy NASA Earth Observatory.

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — Managers of the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary say they’ll use a new report to try and prepare the resources they steward for the coming impacts of climate change, including increases in sea level; extreme weather events such as winds, waves, and storms; and coastal erosion from those events.

The report also says the region may experience an increase in ocean acidity, rising water temperature, as well as more extreme weather patterns, including Pacific Northwest regional rainfall increases triggering 100-year magnitude floods.

“Climate change poses an increasingly grave threat to the health of the ocean, and its impacts will be felt in marine protected areas like the Olympic Coast sanctuary,” said  sanctuary superintendent Carol Bernthal. “This report begins our work to develop management strategies that will help us anticipate potential challenges and adapt to the changing marine environment through sound science, public outreach, and partnerships.” (more…)

Global warming: More extreme rainfall events nearly certain

Warmer atmosphere, more moisture, more rain

Breckenridge, Colorado recently recorded an all-time 24-hour record rainfall event during a summer thunderstorm. Bob Berwyn photo.

Breckenridge, Colorado recently recorded an all-time 24-hour record rainfall event during a summer thunderstorm. Bob Berwyn photo.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Large parts of the northern hemisphere could see a 20 to 30 percent increase in extreme precipitation events by the end of the century. Extra moisture due to a warmer atmosphere dominates all other factors, leading to notable increases in the most intense precipitation rates, according to a new NOAA-led study.

The study shows a 20-30 percent expected increase in the maximum precipitation possible over large portions of the Northern Hemisphere by the end of the 21st century if greenhouse gases continue to rise at a high emissions rate.

“We have high confidence that the most extreme rainfalls will become even more intense, as it is virtually certain that the atmosphere will provide more water to fuel these events,” said Kenneth Kunkel, Ph.D., senior research professor at the Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites-North Carolina and lead author of the paper. (more…)

Is global warming causing heavier rainfall in the Midwest?

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Heavy rainfall is becoming more common in the upper Midwest, according to a University of Iowa study.

Extensive long-term study links increasing temps with heavier rainfall

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — Heavy rains are becoming more common in the upper Midwest, and the trend in precipitation is linked with increasing temperatures in the region, according to University of Iowa researchers who studied daily measurements at 447 rain gauge stations in the central and southern United States.

Each site in the study has a record of at least 50 years. The data cover much of the 20th century and the first decade of this century. The states included in the study are: Minnesota, Wisconsin Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi. (more…)

New satellites may lead to earlier tornado warnings

Tracking lighting inside clouds helps predict tornado formation

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Earlier tornado warnings could help save lives. Photo courtesy NOAA.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — New satellite technology that can detect lightning inside clouds and track cloud formation may help weather forecasters develop earlier warnings for severe weather, especially tornadoes.

The national average for tornado warnings is 14 minutes. More time would give people in harm’s way a better chance to protect themselves, said the NOAA and NASA scientists working on the new GOES-R technology. The satellites will be able to monitor thunderstorm development with more temporal and spatial detail. (more…)

Are ‘frozen’ atmospheric waves causing extreme weather?

Observational data confirms pattern changes

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Heat building up over the Arctic is interfering with global circulation patterns, leading to more intense, frequent and extended extreme weather events. Diagram courtesy NOAA.

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — Increasing global temperatures are “freezing” atmospheric waves, resulting in more frequent weather extremes, including the 2011 U.S. heat wave and a 2010 heat wave in Russia that coincided with unprecedented flooding in Pakistan.

Scientists have surprised by how far outside past experience some of the recent extremes have been. The new data show that the emergence of extraordinary weather is not just a linear response to the mean warming trend.

“What we found is that during several recent extreme weather events these planetary waves almost freeze in their tracks for weeks,” said Vladimir Petoukhov, lead author of a study to be published this week in the US Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. “So instead of bringing in cool air after having brought warm air in before, the heat just stays. In fact, we observe a strong amplification of the usually weak, slowly moving component of these waves,” Petoukhov said. (more…)

GAO highlights climate change risks

 

Ever-warmer ...

Ever-warmer …

Government ‘not well-positioned’ to handle climate change risks

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY  — Slowly but inexorably, the very guts of the U.S. government are acknowledging the risks of climate change, most recently demonstrated when the Government Accountability Office said the federal government must do a better job managing climate risk to limit the government’s fiscal exposure.

The changes to GAO’s High Risk List were part of the agency’s biennial update to its list of federal programs and operations at “high risk” for waste, fraud, abuse, and mismanagement or needing broad-based transformation. (more…)

More evidence links global warming with extreme rainfall

Rainfall intensity to increase 7 percent with every degree of global warming

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Summer thunderstorms are likely to become more intense in a warming world.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Climate scientists have long said that a warming Earth will result in more intense rainstorms. Warmer air holds more moisture, and the additional thermal energy in the atmosphere can stir up more storms.

New empirical evidence supports those ideas, including a worldwide review of global rainfall data led by the University of Adelaide, which found that the intensity of the most extreme rainfall events is increasing across the globe as temperatures rise. (more…)

Climate: The jet stream blues

Melting Arctic ice altering mid-latitude weather patterns

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A huge and persistent ridge of high pressure in the eastern Pacific has been shunting the jet stream northward, preventing storms from reaching Colorado. The pattern has been in place much of the winter, sustaining serious drought conditions across parts of the Southwest. Graphic courtesy San Francisco State University.

By Bob Berwyn

SUMMIT COUNTY — If it feels like the weather has been stuck in a rut, that may not be too far from the truth. The jet stream is slowing down and meandering farther north and south, with more blocking patterns setting up across the northern hemisphere.

That leads to more extreme weather, both on the wet and dry side of the scale, said Rutgers University research professor Dr. Jennifer Francis, speaking at last week’s Glen Gerberg Weather and Climate Summit in Breckenridge.

Francis has been studying the connection between vanishing Arctic sea ice and weather in the mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere, and evidence is piling up that the intense warming at high latitudes has serious implications for North America, Europe and Asia. (more…)

Draft report IDs key global warming threats

Activists say deep greenhouse gas cuts needed to avoid climate disaster

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Seasonal temperature anomalies by season in 2012.

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — A recent federal draft report on climate change has spurred renewed calls for deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions to avert the most serious impacts from rising global temperatures.

The report, which is in a public comment phase, concludes that global warming is already affecting the U.S. Warmer temperatures will endanger food supplies, increase the risk of flooding and powerful hurricanes, and warm the country by as much as 10 degrees by 2100.

The report finds that global warming has already delivered hotter summers, more flooding and periods of extreme heat that “last longer than any living American has ever experienced.” (more…)

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