Posted on May 18, 2015 by Bob Berwyn
Forecasters nearly certain pattern will persist at least through the end of summer and probably to the end of the year
Warm sea surface temperatures along the equatorial Pacific show the shape of El Niño.
A classic El Niño sea surface temperature pattern is projected in this map from NOAA.
By Bob Berwyn
FRISCO — A developing Pacific El Niño is already affecting weather patterns across the western U.S. by bringing abundant spring moisture to the region, including late season snow and rain to parts of parched California.
And last week meteorologists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said El Niño is likely to stick around for the summer and probably even through the end of the year, perhaps even gaining strength. More on the forecast in this NOAA El Niño blog.
Filed under: climate and weather, Colorado, El Niño, global warming, Summit County Colorado | Tagged: climate, El Nino, ENSO, extreme weather | 1 Comment »
Posted on March 18, 2015 by Bob Berwyn
February 2015 ends up as 2d-warmest for planet Earth
Only a few areas where cooler than average during February 2015.
FRISCO — A decades-long run of above average temperatures around the globe continues unabated, with last month’s average reading coming in at 1.48 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average. According to the new monthly State of the Climate Report from the NOAA National Climatic Data Center, it was the second-warmest February on record, after 1998.
The winter as a whole (December-February) was the warmest on record for Earth, at 1.42 degrees Fahrenheit above average, and 0.05 degrees above the previous record set in 2007. Read the full NCDC report here. Continue reading
Filed under: climate and weather, climate change, global warming | Tagged: climate change, El Nino, Environment, February 2015 global temperatures, global temperature records, global warming, ocean warming | 1 Comment »
Posted on March 17, 2015 by Bob Berwyn
Finding a signal amidst the climate noise isn’t easy
Does La Niña increase the odds of tornadoes?
Study finds links between ENSO and tornado frequency in the Southern U.S. Photo courtesy NOAA.
FRISCO — Teasing out a link between large-scale atmospheric patterns and specific weather events isn’t easy against the backdrop of natural variability.
But a new study of the El Niño-La Niña cycle in the Pacific Ocean suggests that La Niña — the cool phase of the cycle — increases the frequency of tornadoes and hail storms in some of the most susceptible regions of the United States.
During La Niña, both vertical wind shear and surface warmth and moisture increase significantly in the southern states, making conditions favorable to severe storm occurrence.
The study, published in the current issue of the journal Nature Geoscience, may help provide more information for medium- and long-range extreme weather forecasts. Continue reading
Filed under: climate and weather, extreme weather, global warming | Tagged: climate, El Nino, ENSO, extreme weather, La Niña, tornadoes | Leave a comment »
Posted on March 5, 2015 by Bob Berwyn
Impacts unclear, though Gulf Coast could see rain surplus
NOAA’s El Niño map shows widespread above-average sea surface temperatures.
FRISCO — A long overdue El Niño once anticipated as a potential drought-buster for California has emerged, but may not have a huge impact on North American weather.
Forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center made the announcement this week after measuring ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific. Those temps have been running above average for several months but just now crossed the El Niño threshold. the climate experts said in their monthly outlook. Continue reading
Filed under: climate and weather, El Niño | Tagged: California drought, climate, El Nino, NOAA, weather | Leave a comment »
Posted on January 26, 2015 by Bob Berwyn
Will global warming intensify extreme weather swings?
How will climate change affect ENSO?
FRISCO — Global warming could increase the frequency of extreme La Niña events in the Pacific Ocean, with more droughts in southwestern United States, floods in the western Pacific regions and increased Atlantic hurricane activity.
The international study, published in Nature Climate Change, used advanced modeling to show how increased land-area heating, combined with more frequent El Niños, will feed a cycle of extreme La Niñas. Continue reading
Filed under: climate and weather, Drought, El Niño, extreme weather, global warming | Tagged: climate science, El Nino, ENSO, extreme weather, global warming, La Niña | 1 Comment »
Posted on December 13, 2014 by Bob Berwyn
Last week’s Pacific storm dropped near-record rain
The video was created by NASA/NOAA’s GOES Project at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.
FRISCO — A weekend storm rolling into Colorado won’t have a direct pineapple connection, but if the powder does pile up, it will be due to a big stream of moisture from the subtropical Pacific ocean that is wrapped into the approaching weather front.
As the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration described in a press release, the ‘Pineapple Express’’ happens when warm air and lots of moisture are transported from the Central Pacific, near Hawaii, to the Eastern Pacific Ocean. The above animation of satellite imagery from NOAA’s GOES-West satellite showed the stream of clouds associated with that moisture from Dec. 9 to Dec. 12, 2014 and brought rain and snow to the western U.S. Continue reading
Filed under: climate and weather, Drought, El Niño, extreme weather | Tagged: California drought, climate, El Nino, extreme weather | 3 Comments »
Posted on December 7, 2014 by Bob Berwyn
2014 goes into the books one of the most active Pacific hurricane seasons on record
Hurricane Odile off Mexico: At about 10:45 p.m. local time on September 14, 2014, Hurricane Odile made landfall near Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. According to the U.S. National Hurricane Center, Odile arrived with wind speeds of 110 knots (204 kilometers or 127 miles per hour). The storm tied Olivia (1967) as the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the state of Baja California Sur in the satellite era. Photo courtesy NOAA.
FRISCO — As a giant pump that redistributes global heat, it’s no surprise that El Niño affects the formation and timing of hurricanes. In general, meteorologists see that El Niño conditions sometimes suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic. But less is known about how the cyclical surges of warm water at the equator affect Pacific hurricanes.
A new study suggests there may a delayed reaction, with peak hurricane in the northeastern Pacific happening two or three years after an El Niño peak. The climate researchers with the University of Hawai’i School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, National Taiwan University uncovered an oceanic pathway that brings El Niño’s heat into the Northeastern Pacific to directly fuel intense hurricanes in that region. Continue reading
Filed under: climate and weather, global warming | Tagged: climate change, East Pacific hurricanes, El Nino, Tropical cyclones | Leave a comment »