Posted on May 16, 2013 by Bob Berwyn
The EU’s ice2sea program helps to determine potential future impacts of rising sea levels.
Research focuses on contribution of melting glaciers, ice caps and ice shelves
By Summit Voice
FRISCO — After four years of studies and more than 150 peer-reviewed papers, The EU-funded ice2sea program has concluded that melting ice may not contribute as much to sea level rise as some other studies have suggested.
Under a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario, the contribution from continental ice will likely amount to between 3.5 and 36.8 centimeters (1.4 to 14.5 inches) by 2100, the program’s leaders said this week, unveiling a new report that summarizes their research. The report is online at the ice2sea home page.
Some of the ice2sea studies have:
The new report includes several case studies outlining the impacts of sea level rise to specific areas, including economically valuable developed areas like the port of Rotterdam and the Thames Estuary, as well as natural areas with unique natural values, like the Machair ecosystems in Ireland and Scotland that thrive in a delicate balance of land and sea. (more…)
Filed under: Antarctica, Arctic, climate and weather, Environment, global warming | Tagged: British Antarctic Survey, climate, Current sea level rise, global warming, ice2sea program, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, sea level rise | Leave a Comment »
Posted on May 8, 2013 by Bob Berwyn
Study shows topography is a key factor in controlling ice flow
A new study helps pinpoint how many icebergs may from as Greenland’s glaciers are subjected to global warming. Photo courtesy British Antarctic Survey.
By Bob Berwyn
FRISCO — Greenland’s swift outflow glaciers are sensitive to warming air and ocean temperatures, but a new study published in the journal Nature indicates that the recent acceleration of glacial flow isn’t continuing at a linear rate.
The shape of the ground and seafloor beneath the glaciers is crucial in determining how they respond to climate change — how fast they move and how much they will contribute to sea level rise in coming decades.
“What we are saying is that we shouldn’t extrapolate the rate of the last 10 years into the future … If you study these glaciers separately, they show different behavior,” said lead author Dr. Faezeh Nick, of the Université Libre de Bruxelles, describing the work done on the Petermann, Kangerdlugssuaq, Helheim and Jakobshavn Isbræ glaciers. Together, they drain about 22 percent of the Greenland ice sheet. (more…)
Filed under: climate and weather, Environment, global warming | Tagged: British Antarctic Survey, climate change, Current sea level rise, greenland, Petermann Glacier, Université Libre de Bruxelles | 1 Comment »
Posted on March 30, 2013 by Bob Berwyn
Superstorm Sandy may have been a turning point in public perception
February temperatures were above normal almost everywhere across the mid-latitudes, but colder than average in the polar regions, compared to the 1951-1980 average. Via NASA.
By Summit Voice
SUMMIT COUNTY — While some Americans may still not be convinced that greenhouse gas emissions are heating up the planet, there does appear to be an emerging consensus that the country should prepare for the potential impacts of a changing climate.
Superstorm Sandy may have been a turning point, as images of flooding in downtown Manhattan and shoreline devastation in New Jersey dominated the airwaves for a few days. Americans may have seen Sandy as a sign of things to come, according to a new survey by the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment and the Center for Ocean Solutions. (more…)
Filed under: climate and weather, Environment, global warming | Tagged: climate adaptation, climate change, Current sea level rise, global warming, Stanford University, superstorm Sandy | Leave a Comment »
Posted on March 19, 2013 by Bob Berwyn
The Greenland Today website tracks ice cap changes on a real-time basis. Click on the image for more information.
‘Local’ glaciers reacting faster to global warming than the main ice cap
By Summit Voice
SUMMIT COUNTY — Glaciers on the edge of Greenland are pouring at about 50 gigatons of water into the Atlantic every year. That’s about half the volume of Lake Geneva, one of Europe’s largest lake, and enough to account for about 10 percent of annual global sea level rise, according to a new study by Swiss and Danish scientists.
The research, published in Geophysical Research Letters, will help scientists improve the predictions of the future contribution of Greenland’s ice to sea-level rise.
The data could also be used by researchers maintaining the new Greenland Today website, which tracks the state of the ice cap on a real-time basis.
“The melting of ice on Greenland is known to be one of the major sources for global sea-level rise. Beside the large ice sheet, there are thousands of peripheral glaciers which are not connected to the ice sheet or can be separated from it due to the existence of ice divides,” said lead author Dr. Tobias Bolch, of the University of Zurich. “The area of those glaciers is about 50 times higher than the ice cover of the European Alps. Consequently, it is important to investigate not only the ice sheet but also these local glaciers,” he said. (more…)
Filed under: climate and weather, Environment, global warming | Tagged: climate change, Current sea level rise, Geophysical Research Letters, global warming, greenland, sea level rise, University of Zurich | 5 Comments »
Posted on February 19, 2013 by Bob Berwyn
A new study coordinated by the EU’s ice2sea program helps identify which parts of the world will be most affected by sea level rise in the coming decades.
Tropical Pacific to see the greatest increases, while relative sea level is likely to drop in some polar regions
By Summit Voice
FRISCO — Intensifying concerns about the potential for sea level rise to swamp low-lying Pacific island nations are justified, according to a new report in the Geophysical Research Letters journal. Western Australia, Oceania and the small atolls and islands in this region, including Hawaii, are at greatest risk, according to the new study from EU’s ice2sea program.
The results of the modeling mirror observational data that’s been collected by satellites in the past few decades, said David Vaughan, program coordinator for EU’s ice2sea program, which seeks to develop more accurate sea level rise predictions. (more…)
Filed under: climate and weather, Environment, global warming | Tagged: Antarctica, climate change, Current sea level rise, global warming, greenland, sea level rise | 1 Comment »
Posted on January 3, 2013 by Bob Berwyn
Average carbon dioxide levels will probably start to stay above 400 ppm sometime in 2013.
Analysis of 40-million year record calibrates CO2 concentrations with historic sea levels
By Summit Voice
SUMMIT COUNTY — Even if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were to be stabilzed at today’s levels of about 400 parts per million, sea levels would gradually increase by about 30 during the next few centuries, according to researchers who calibrated CO2 levels against sea level for the past 40 million years.
The study sought to pinpoint the ‘natural equilibrium’ sea level for CO2 concentrations ranging between ice-age values of 180 parts per million and ice-free values of more than 1,000 parts per million. (more…)
Filed under: climate and weather, Environment, global warming | Tagged: climate change, CO2, Current sea level rise, global warming, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, sea level, University of Southampton | 1 Comment »
Posted on December 31, 2012 by Bob Berwyn
Sea level forecasts may be way off
Will there be runaway ice sheet melting? Bob Berwyn photo.
By Summit Voice
FRISCO — Most climate models are probably underestimating the rate of sea level rise expected during the next few decades, according to some of the latest research that tries to quantify how much ice may melt off the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets.
A Dec. 26 update by James Hansen and Makiko Sato warns that melting of those ice sheets could increase sea level rise exponentially higher than most existing forecasts, potentially inundating coastal cities around the world with several feet of water by the end of the century.
The short paper discusses the linearity assumptions in most existing climate models and suggests that, if greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked, “the climate forcing will be so large that non-linear ice sheet disintegration should be expected and multi- meter sea level rise not only possible but likely.” (more…)
Filed under: climate and weather, Environment, global warming | Tagged: Current sea level rise, greenland, Greenland ice sheet, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, James Hansen, West Antarctic Ice Sheet | 1 Comment »
Posted on November 28, 2012 by Bob Berwyn
Observational data is piling up and showing that sea level rise is exceeding the rate predicted by the IPCC
Glaciers and ice caps are melting, and sea level is rising even faster than forecast by the IPCC. Photos courtesy NASA. (Click the image for more information.)
By Summit Voice
SUMMIT COUNTY — Sea levels during the past two decades are rising 60 percent faster than the general estimates made by the IPCC, according to new research published this week in the journal Environmental Research Letters.
The scientists with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Tempo Analytics and Laboratoire d’Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales said that, while temperature rises appear to be consistent with the projections made in the IPCC’s fourth assessment report , satellite measurements show that sea-levels are rising at a rate of 3.2 mm a year compared to the best estimate of 2 mm a year in the report.
“This study shows once again that the IPCC is far from alarmist, but in fact has under-estimated the problem of climate change,” said lead author Stefan Rahmstorf. “That applies not just for sea-level rise, but also to extreme events and the Arctic sea-ice loss.” (more…)
Filed under: climate and weather, Environment, global warming | Tagged: climate, climate change, Current sea level rise, Environmental Research Letters, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, sea level rise | 6 Comments »
Posted on November 20, 2012 by Bob Berwyn
On pace to see climate disruption outside the realm of human experience
Warmer and warmer …
By Summit Voice
FRISCO — You can almost hear global warming deniers gnashing their teeth and pulling out their hair as staid organizations like the World Bank take a hard look at the economic and environmental realities of climate change.
In a report prepared for the global financial institution, the Berline-based Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics warned that, without a drastic reduction in greenhouse gases, the world is on a path to warm at least four degrees Celsius, which could result in a “world of risks beyond the experience of our civilization — including heat waves … sea-level rise affecting hundreds of millions of people, and regional yield failures impacting global food security.
“The planetary machinery tends to be jumpy, this is to respond disproportionately to disruptions that come with the manmade greenhouse effect,” PIK’s director Hans Joachim Schellnhuber said. “If we venture far beyond the 2-degree guardrail, towards 4 degrees, we risk crossing tipping points in the Earth system. (more…)
Filed under: business, climate and weather, economy, Environment, global warming | Tagged: climate change, Current sea level rise, global warming, Jim Yong Kim, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, World Bank | 1 Comment »
Posted on October 5, 2012 by Bob Berwyn
The Greenland ice sheet is thinning, according to NASA data. Click on the image for more information.
Ice sheet melting may be slow, but it’s inexorable
By Summit Voice
SUMMIT COUNTY — Study after study has been done on how global warming will affect sea level, and it appears that, no matter how you slice and dice it, coastal areas will see significant impacts during the coming centuries.
In one of the latest research projects, scientists tried to factor in all of the Earth’s ice, including some 200,000 glaciers worldwide, concluding that a sea-level rise of 1.1 (about 3.5 feet) meters by the year 3000 is inevitable. (more…)
Filed under: climate and weather, Environment, global warming | Tagged: climate change, Current sea level rise, global warming, Greenhouse gas, Greenland ice sheet, sea level rise | 6 Comments »