Posted on August 13, 2015 by Bob Berwyn
NOAA updates seasonal outlook; El Niño likely to persist into spring
Warmer than average sea surface temperatures prevail across most of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, as El Niño continues to strengthen.
By Bob Berwyn
FRISCO — Federal weather experts today said they’re more sure than ever that a strong El Niño will persist through the fall and winter, but they are less certain about how the cyclical Pacific Ocean climate pattern will play out across the U.S. The Aug. 13 El Niño update and diagnostic discussion is online here — it says there’s a 90 percent chance El Niño will last through the winter and an 85 percent chance it will last into early spring 2016.
During an El Niño, sea surface temperatures are above average across the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, and this year’s event could be among the strongest on record dating back to 1950, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Continue reading
Filed under: climate and weather, Drought, El Niño, extreme weather, global warming | Tagged: California drought, climate, El Nino, Pacific Northwest drought, winter weather outlook | Leave a comment »
Posted on August 7, 2015 by Bob Berwyn
More heat records set in Pacific Northwest
Ten states reported slightly cooler than average temps in July 2015.
FRISCO — July 2015 was record-warm across a large part of the Pacific Northwest and the southern tip of Florida, and well above average for most of the West, with near- to below average temperatures in a big swath extending from the central U.S. into the Northeast.
Taken all together, the monthly average temperature for the lower 48 states was 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average, ranking near the middle in the 121-year period of record, according to the latest monthly update from the National Climatic Data Center.
Filed under: climate and weather, El Niño, global warming | Tagged: climate, US July 2015 temperatures, weather | Leave a comment »
Posted on August 7, 2015 by Bob Berwyn
Will there be a major hurricane in 2015?
Increased odds of below-average season enhanced by strengthening El Niño and cool Atlantic sea surface temps
FRISCO — A strengthening El Niño and cooler than average sea surface temperatures across parts of the Atlantic Ocean may further dampen hurricane activity this summer, federal weather experts said this week in the updated 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook.
According to the National Hurricane Center, says there’s a 90 percent chance of a below-average season — but that doesn’t mean coastal residents should let their guard down.
“Tropical storms and hurricanes can and do strike the United States, even in below-normal seasons and during El Niño events,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Regardless of our call for below-normal storm activity, people along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts should remain prepared and vigilant, especially now that the peak months of the hurricane season have started.” Continue reading
Filed under: climate and weather | Tagged: 2015 Atlantic Hurricane season, Atlantic hurricanes, climate, hurricane forecast, tropical storms | Leave a comment »
Posted on July 8, 2015 by Bob Berwyn
Western U.S. bakes under record heat
Four states in the Far West reported record-warm January – June temperatures.
FRISCO — With an average temperature of 2.9 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average, last month was the second-warmest June on record for the contiguous United States, ranking behind June 1933, according to the latest monthly update from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center.
The West was sweltering, as five states (California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Utah) set all-time June temperature records. Wyoming, Montana and Nevada reported June temps that were in the all-time top five, while Colorado and New Mexico’s June readings were in the top ten warmest on record. Continue reading
Filed under: climate and weather, Drought, El Niño, global warming | Tagged: climate, climate change, climate statistics, June 2015 U.S. temperatures, record Western heat, Western heat wave | 1 Comment »
Posted on June 21, 2015 by Bob Berwyn
Wet summer ahead?
May precipitation broke the all-time record for Colorado.
Every part of Colorado saw above normal precipitation in May.
FRISCO — May brought drought-busting precipitation to much of Colorado, state climate experts said last week during their monthly Water Availability Task Force meeting in Denver.
The beneficial moisture erased a long-running drought in southeastern Colorado and also helped boost the streamflow outlook in the Rio Grande Basin, where a meager winter snowpack had lowered expectations for summer runoff.
By contrast, the far western third of the state is still designated as experiencing abnormally dry conditions by the National Drought Monitor, which also shows a pocket of moderate drought across western Gunnison and much of Delta counties. Continue reading
Filed under: climate and weather, Colorado, Drought, El Niño | Tagged: climate, Colorado, Colorado climate predictions, Colorado weather, El Nino, record precipitation, record rain Colorado | 1 Comment »
Posted on June 14, 2015 by Bob Berwyn
Strengthening El Niño fueling tropical storms in eastern Pacific
A NOAA satellite image shows Hurricane Carlos strengthening off southern Mexico.
Hurricane Carlos is moving slowly northwestward along the southern Coast of Mexico. Via National Hurricane Center.
FRISCO — Taking a track parallel to the southern coast of Mexico, Hurricane Carlos has spurred warnings and watches along a long section of shoreline. Parts of southern Mexico could get pummeled by high winds, rain and surf the next few days, although the National Hurricane Center says the the storm’s path is still uncertain.
For now, a hurricane warming is in effect from Punta San Telmo to Tecpan de Galeana, with a hurricane watch extending west from Punta san Telmo to Manzanillo. Carlos is generating winds of about 80 mph and could strengthen in the next couple of days, with winds of up to 90 mph as it nears the coast. Continue reading
Filed under: climate and weather, El Niño, extreme weather, global warming, tropical storms and hurricanes | Tagged: Acapulco, climate, eastern Pacific hurricane season, El Nino, Hurricane Carlos, Mexican Riviera, tropical storms | Leave a comment »
Posted on May 23, 2015 by Bob Berwyn
Good news for boaters
Healthy streamflows and good boating in the Blue River Basin. @bberwyn photo.
Blue River snowpack still growing.
FRISCO — Late-season storms have helped boost snowpack in the Blue River to near last year’s level, promising healthy runoff and flows in Summit County, according to Denver Water.
The effects of the steady barrage of spring storms is already showing up the Lower Blue River, where flows are increasing due to increased releases from Dillon Reservoir, according to Denver Water, which won’t be diverting water through the Roberts Tunnel until mid-July at the earliest. Continue reading
Filed under: climate and weather, Colorado, Colorado River, Snow and weather, Summit County Colorado, Summit County snow and weather | Tagged: Blue River, climate, Colorado, Denver Water, Dillon Reservoir, kayaking, snowpack, streamflows, water, whitewater rafting | 1 Comment »