European forecasters look to NAO for climate clues

Posted on May 19, 2013 by Bob Berwyn
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Seasonal shifts in the North Atlantic Oscillation have a strong effect on European weather.

New study helps track seasonal shifts in North Atlantic storm track

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — Just as weather forecasters in the western U.S. look at El Niño and La Niña to help get a handle on season outlooks, European meteorologists are carefully analyzing the North Atlantic Oscillation for climate clues. The job is easier in some years, according to a new study carried out by the National Oceanography Centre.

The research shwoed that the relationship between our winter weather and the strength of the airflow coming in from the Atlantic – one of the factors used by forecasters to predict the weather – is stronger in some years than others. The results were recently published in the Royal Meteorological Society publication Weather.

“There are two major atmospheric pressure systems centred around Iceland and the Azores that are very influential for the weather in Europe. Air flows between these two systems, bringing mild air from the North Atlantic to Europe,” said co-authors Joël Hirschi and Bablu Sinha from the National Oceanography Centre. (more…)

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Climate: Study quantifies sea level rise from melting glaciers

Posted on May 18, 2013 by Bob Berwyn

‘A little bucket with a huge hole …’

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Alpine glaciers like the Dachstein have been melting quickly. A new study shows that ice melt from glacial regions outside Greenland and Antarctica contribute significantly to sea level rise. Bob Berwyn photo.

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — The world’s major ice sheets — on Greenland and Antarctica — haven’t really started a major meltdown yet. But the rest of the world’s glacial regions have been losing ice at a rate of about 260 billion metric tons annually, raising sea level by about 0.03 inches per year — about a third of the observed sea level rise.

The biggest ice losses are happening in Arctic Canada, Alaska, coastal Greenland, the southern Andes and the Himalaya. Combined, the areas contribute as much to sea level rise as melting from the major ice sheets, which lock up about 90 percent of the Earth’s land ice, according to a a new study led by Clark University and involving the University Colorado Boulder.

“Because the global glacier ice mass is relatively small in comparison with the huge ice sheets covering Greenland and Antarctica, people tend to not worry about it,” said CU-Boulder Professor Tad Pfeffer, a study co-author. “But it’s like a little bucket with a huge hole in the bottom: it may not last for very long, just a century or two, but while there’s ice in those glaciers, it’s a major contributor to sea level rise,” said Pfeffer, a glaciologist at CU-Boulder’s Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research. (more…)

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Climate: Drought conditions edge westward

Posted on May 17, 2013 by Bob Berwyn

Wet, cool spring brings relief to Midwest

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The most severe areas of drought encompass parts of the central-southern plains, spreading southwest into parts of Colorado and New Mexico.

By Bob Berwyn

FRISCO — Drought woes have eased in the Midwest after a wet spring, but the far West,  California in particular, are facing continued dry conditions. California has reported its driest year to-date on record, with only 27 percent of normal precipitation for January through April. That doesn’t bode well for the state’s water supplies, although at least reservoir storage is close to normal in California.

New Mexico and Nevada are in bad shape when it comes to reservoir storage and there’s little relief in sight at the end of the snow season. Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said dry soil conditions in the southwest could contribute to higher than average temperatures this summer. (more…)

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EU ice2sea report offers new estimates of sea level rise

Posted on May 16, 2013 by Bob Berwyn
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The EU’s ice2sea program helps to determine potential future impacts of rising sea levels.

Research focuses on contribution of melting glaciers, ice caps and ice shelves

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — After four years of studies and more than 150 peer-reviewed papers, The EU-funded ice2sea program has concluded that melting ice may not contribute as much to sea level rise as some other studies have suggested.

Under a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario, the contribution from continental ice will likely amount to between 3.5 and 36.8 centimeters (1.4 to 14.5 inches) by 2100, the program’s leaders said this week, unveiling a new report that summarizes their research. The report is online at the ice2sea home page.

Some of the ice2sea studies have:

The new report includes several case studies outlining the impacts of sea level rise to specific areas, including economically valuable developed areas like the port of Rotterdam and the Thames Estuary, as well as natural areas with unique natural values, like the Machair ecosystems in Ireland and Scotland that thrive in a delicate balance of land and sea. (more…)

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Climate: U.S. temps cooler than average in April 2013

Posted on May 15, 2013 by Bob Berwyn

Upper Midwest experiences record and near-record cold

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Extremely cold temperatures in the heartland of the USA pushed the average temperature across the country to well below normal for April 2013. Graph courtesy NOAA.

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — For the first time in quite a while the U.S. experienced a month with temperatures running below the historic average. The average temperature across the contiguous 48 states for April 2013 was 49.7 degrees, 1.4 degrees below the 20th century average. It was the 23d-coolest April on record and the coolest since 1997, when the average temperature was 48 degrees, according to the National Climatic Data Center’s monthly summary.

For January through April, temps for the Lower 48 states are near the 20th century average.

The coldest readings prevailed across the central part of the country, especially north, where North Dakota reported its coldest April on record with an average temperature of 31 degrees — 9.9 degrees below the 20th century average. South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Minnesota, and Wisconsin all tallied top-10 coldest readings for the month. (more…)

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Morning photo: Cloudplay

Posted on May 15, 2013 by Bob Berwyn

Fire in the sky

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Changing weather …

FRISCO —Working on a story today about the formation of cirrus clouds made me realize how intrinsic clouds are to my photography. Yes, a clear blue sky is wonderful if your out trying get a tan, but for a dramatic image, there’s nothing like a roiling thundercloud, or a layered wave cloud lighting up in the fiery light of dawn. When I look out the window before heading out the door, it’s usually for a cloud check, trying to assess whether there’s going to be some good color in the morning or evening sky. I’ve compiled a few of my favorite cloud shots from the past six months here and invite you to visit our online FineArt America gallery for a selection of Summit County landscapes, available as fine are prints or greeting cards. (more…)

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Study helps pinpoint cirrus cloud formation

Posted on May 15, 2013 by Bob Berwyn
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Cirrus cloud study helps inform climate predictions.

Composition of seed material suggests human activity could be a significant factor

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Mineral dust and metallic aerosols are the key seeding agents for the formation of high-altitude cirrus clouds, which cover nearly a third of the globe at any given time. Often forming more than 10 miles up, cirrus clouds can cool the planet by reflecting solar radiation, and warm it, by trapping heat like a blanket.

A nine-year study of cirrus clouds using using instruments aboard high-altitude research aircraft is helping scientists get a better handle on the mechanisms driving cirrus cloud formation, and that, in turn, could help scientists predict future climate patterns. (more…)

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Climate: Atmospheric CO2 reaches 400 ppm

Posted on May 11, 2013 by Bob Berwyn

Concentration will wane from seasonal high point, but long-term trend is up

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Mauna Loa. Photo courtesy USGS.

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Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere this week reached a level last recorded 2 to 5 million years ago.

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — Climate scientists have been closely tracking atmospheric carbon dioxide levels for a long time, but this week, the colorless, odorless gas made big headlines.

An atmospheric observatory on Mauna Loa for the first time measured daily concentrations of CO2 at slightly above 400 parts per million, a dubious milestone which, better than any other number, captures the extent to which we are changing the world. (more…)

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NASA mission targets more accurate snowpack data

Posted on May 4, 2013 by Bob Berwyn
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NASA Airborne Snow Observatory measurements of snow water equivalent (top image) and snow albedo, or reflectivity (bottom image) for the Tuolumne River Basin in California’s Sierra Nevada on April 21, 2013. The snow water equivalent measured the total water contained as snow in the basin on that date at 375 million cubic meters, or enough to fill the Rose Bowl about 1,180 times. The albedo map expresses the percentage of sunlight reflected back to space by the snow. The lower the albedo, the faster the snowmelt rate and runoff. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech.

Aerial surveys with high-tech instruments will create detailed snow maps, yielding better runoff forecasts

FRISCO — Data from an ambitious new NASA aerial program could help resource managers get a jump on global warming, with more precise and timely snowpack measurements.

By Summit Voice

NASA’s Airborne Snow Observatory began it’s three-year demonstration mission in April, with weekly flights over the Tuolumne River Basin in California’s Sierra Nevada and monthly flights over Colorado’s Uncompahgre River Basin. Scientists involved in the program hope to start covering the entire Upper Colorado River Basin.

The data is already paying off for power companies and water managers, who can use real-time updates to allocate water resources more efficiently, for storage, irrigation and municipal supplies.

Most snowpack measurements are currently collected via ground-based surveys and from automated SNOTEL sites. Airborne mapping can cover more ground and gather data from areas without observation stations, resulting in more accurate forecasts. (more…)

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Climate: Parts of western Atlantic reach record-high temps

Posted on April 27, 2013 by Bob Berwyn

NOAA documenting shift in marine species as water warms

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Looking down the East Coast from Cape Cod toward Long Island from the International Space Station. Visit this NASA Earth Observatory page for more information.

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — With sea surface temperatures at a 150-year high off off the mid-Atlantic and New England coastlines, scientists are document significant shifts in the distribution of commercially important marine species, with as-yet uncertain consequences for the entire ecosystem.

Those temperatures reached a record high of 57.2 degrees in 2012, exceeding the record high set in 1951. The average sea surface temperatures in the region — extending from the Gulf of Maine to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina — has typically been lower than 54.3 degrees during the past three decades, according to a NOAA advisory. (more…)

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