Colorado: A warmup, but no snow in sight

Posted on January 16, 2013 by Bob Berwyn

Drought expected to persist; water supply outlook grim

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Colorado’s snowpack hasn’t been above average since the big winter of 2010-2011.

By Bob Berwyn

FRISCO — Temperatures will begin to moderate across the Colorado high country the next few days, with highs climbing back to near seasonal norms, which is only in the lower 30s, but that should feel downright balmy after enduring an Arctic air mass the past few days.

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Dry conditions persisted across Colorado in the autumn of 2012, especially in the plains.

The nicest weather will be up on the mountain slopes, because warmer air aloft will trap cold air on the valley floors, and with no incoming weather systems to stir up the atmosphere, those inversions are likely to persist for the foreseeable future. That also means there’s no snow in the forecast for the next 10 days unless there’s a dramatic shift in the jet stream, which will stay far to the north for the next week at least. (more…)

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Colorado: Mostly dry into December

Posted on November 21, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Is Colorado facing more drought?

So far, the pattern of storms across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies shows little signs of changing, with most of the weather action far north of Colorado.

By Bob Berwyn

FRISCO — Ullr, why has thou forsaken us?

If you’re holding out for more snow before heading out to make turns on the hill, you may want to reconsider. The outlook for the next 10 days is mostly dry and warm, with perhaps a chance of snow brushing the northern mountains Sunday night into Monday morning. Beyond that, another ridge will build into the Southwest, bringing more dry weather and a return to above normal temps for much of next week. (more…)

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Colorado snowpack off to a poor start

Posted on November 7, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Precipitation lagging behind last year

Last year’s line is green; this year’s is orange.

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — It’s still early in the season, but so far, this year’s snow pack in Colorado is running behind even last year’s meager totals for this time of year, as the little bit of snow that fell last month melted away some of the SNOTEL sites.

The Copper Mountain SNOTEL site was reporting 4 inches of snow a few weeks ago, but is now back to zero, for example, and numerous other SNOTEL sites are also reporting at zero.

Exceptions are in the far north, where the Tower site is reporting 5 inches on the ground, and the Never Summer site, leading the state with 10 inches. Grizzly Peak is reporting 3 inches, while Fremont Pass is at 4 inches. (more…)

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‘Wavering’ El Niño vexes winter weather outlook

Posted on October 22, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Not much drought relief expected this winter.

NOAA calls for warmer-than-average conditions in the West

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY —This year’s wavering El Niño isn’t just vexing Colorado forecasters. Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say that getting a handle on the winter forecast has been tough.

“This is one of the most challenging outlooks we’ve produced in recent years because El Niño decided not to show up as expected,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “In fact, it stalled out last month, leaving neutral conditions in place in the tropical Pacific.” (more…)

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Goodbye La Niña — are you ready for El Niño?

Posted on July 19, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Impacts on Colorado uncertain

Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures are spreading west from the coast of South America, potentially heralding a developing El Niño.

The three-month precipitation outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center highlights a chance for above-average moisture in the Southeast and a small arc of the Southwest.

By Bob Berwyn

SUMMIT COUNTY — A classic El Niño may be developing across the eastern Pacific, with warmer-than-average water temperatures starting to spread westward from the coast of South America, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

For the month of June, the pattern of sea surface temperatures overall remained in a neutral phase, but with growing positive (warmer than average) equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, NOAA has issued an El Niño watch, reflecting a likely emergence of of El Niño in the late summer or fall. (more…)

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Colorado: Spring meltdown looks like 1910 drought

Posted on April 9, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

March was a game-changer, says state climatologist Nolan Doesken

Without the above-average February snowfall in eastern Colorado, Colorado would be experiencing record dry conditions statewide. GRAPHIC COURTESY WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER.

By Bob Berwyn

SUMMIT COUNTY — Colorado’s water managers and weather experts shouldn’t be surprised by the dry skies and warm temperatures. Historically, the majority of past disaster declarations in the state have been related to drought, which indicates the state’s vulnerability to this particular natural hazard, according to boilerplate language found in hazard mitigation plans in almost every county.

Summit County’s multihazard mitigation plan, for example, says clearly that multi-year droughts can be expected about every 10 years, so this season’s dry conditions are right on schedule after the last major dry spell culminated in 2002. Since  1893, Colorado has experienced six multi-year droughts that are widely considered “severe.” These droughts affected most of the state and involved record-breaking dry spells.

While this year’s early snow melt is not unprecedented, it is unusual, according to state climatologist Nolan Doesken, who said the last time the state saw similar conditions was more than 100 years ago, in the 1910 drought, which was widespread across the West and also led to one of the most destructive wildfire seasons on record. In that year, conditions did turn around a bit in late April and May, he added.

“March was the real game-changer,” Doesken said, explaining that the state’s snowpack usually grows and peaks during the last few weeks of winter; this year, it was the opposite, with a meltdown that saw statewide snowpack dwindle by nearly a third. (more…)

Filed under: climate and weather, Colorado, global warming, La Niña, seasons, Snow and weather | Tagged: , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Weather: Dry spring?

Posted on January 27, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Climate Prediction Center February to April will be warm and dry

The 2012 late December snowpack in the U.S. was the lowest in recent years.

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By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — After several months of forecasting increased odds of above-normal snowfall for the 2011-2012 winter season, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has shifted gears and has upped the odds for below-normal precipitation for February through April.

According to NOAA, La Niña has peaked at about half the strength of last winter, and hasn’t influenced the weather as expected, at least so far. While the last few weeks have seen a shift in the larger pattern, the jet stream is still staying mainly north of Colorado and not driving down from the Northwest with abundant moisture like last winter.

Check out NOAA’s snow analysis web page for animated maps of precipitation and snow cover. (more…)

Filed under: climate and weather, Colorado, La Niña, snow, Snow and weather, Summit County snow and weather | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

Colorado: Weird winter …

Posted on January 12, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Snow cover across the U.S. well below average, temperatures remain on the high side in most of the country

Snowpack comparisons, with the black line showing this year's levels. The little upward jog at the end represents the 4-inch storm last weekend, showing how little a single small storm like that does for the overall snowpack.

SUMMIT COUNTY — I’ve lived in the mountains of the West for about 25 years, long enough to know that the weather goes through its own cycles, regardless of what we need, plan or hope for. Some years are good, some years are bad and some are just so-so. Whether it’s La Niña, the Arctic Oscillation or the Madden-Julian Oscillation doesn’t really matter in the end, except from a purely scientific standpoint.

That’s why I can only laugh when when I see wishful tweets from real estate types, or posts by bloggers on the Vail Resorts payroll, talking about a shift in the pattern. Invariably, that anticipated change is about 7 to 10 days away, which is tantalizingly out on the horizon, just beyond the span within which meteorologists can semi-accurately predict what’s going to happen. (more…)

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Colorado: 3-month weather outlook on the warm, dry side

Posted on October 5, 2011 by Bob Berwyn

Experts: No reason to expect another record snow year, despite 2d-year La Niña

Will La Niña favor Colorado with good snowfall again this winter?

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — A second-year La Niña means the Colorado mountains have a good chance of getting close to normal snowfall, but an encore of last winter’s record-breaking snowfall is unlikely, according to Klaus Wolter, a meteorologist with the University of Colorado Climate Diagnostic Center.

Wolter, who studies the effects of El Niño-La Niña weather cycles on Colorado and the Southwest, predicted a return of La Niña last spring based on historic records that show strong La Niñas are often followed by a weaker version of the pattern, which is marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. (more…)

Filed under: climate and weather, Colorado, Environment, La Niña, Summit County news, Summit County snow and weather | Tagged: , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Climate: NOAA issues La Niña advisory

Posted on September 12, 2011 by Bob Berwyn

Drought may continue across south-central U.S.

La Niña is credited with delivering above average snowfall to parts of the Rockies last winter.

Last winter's La Niña brought plentiful snow to Colorado from November through May.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — It’s official — La Niña is back, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, which last week upgraded its La Niña watch to a La Niña advisory.

“This means drought is likely to continue in the drought-stricken states of Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. “La Niña also often brings colder winters to the Pacific Northwest and the northern Plains, and warmer temperatures to the southern states.” (more…)

Filed under: climate and weather, Colorado, Environment, La Niña, Snow and weather, Summit County Colorado, Summit County news, Summit County snow and weather | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

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