Posted on March 20, 2013 by Bob Berwyn
Tropical storms are more likely to affect Europe as Atlantic sea surface temperatures rise.
Severe winds to increase in the North Sea and the Gulf of Biscay, especially during autumn
By Bob Berwyn
SUMMIT COUNTY — European climate scientists say global warming will drive a northeastward expansion of the tropical Atlantic hurricane breeding ground, with four times as many storms of tropical origins affecting parts of Western Europe in coming decades.
In the Bay of Biscay, the number of storms with tropical-storm-force winds could increase from 2 to 13 by the end of the century, said researcher Reindert Haarsma.
The initial results suggest that the impacts may not be as great in the low-lying Netherlands as in some other areas because the strong winds associated with the events will generally be from the southwest, Haarsma said.
With hurricanes forming farther north and warmer sea surface temperatures in the region, tropical storms are more likely to reach the mid-latitudes, where they will merge with the prevailing westerlies. Even if they lose hurricane status, they are likely to remain stronger, and sometimes re-intensify before landfall, potentially with serious impacts in parts of Europe.
“Our model simulations clearly show that future tropical cyclones are more prone to hit Western Europe and do so earlier in the season,” said the researchers with the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. (more…)
Filed under: climate and weather, global warming, tropical storms and hurricanes | Tagged: Atlantic hurricanes, climate change, European hurricanes, global warming, Hurricane Sandy, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Tropical cyclone | 2 Comments »
Posted on October 4, 2012 by Bob Berwyn
Tropical Storm Nadine, the fifth-longest-lived storm on record in the Atlantic Basin. Map courtesy Supportstorm.
Hurricane Nadine spins over the open waters of the Atlantic on Oct. 2, 2012. Satellite photo courtesy NASA.
Only four other storms have survived longer during the observed era
By Summit Voice
SUMMIT COUNTY — Most tropical weather systems make the news when they get really big and threaten coastal areas, but Tropical Storm Nadine, spinning near the Azores, will enter the record books as one of the longest-lived storms in the Atlantic Basin on record.
Nadine has been at tropical or subtropical strength for 21 days. Only four other storms have lasted longer, most recently Kyle, in 2002, which managed to survive for 22 days after forming near Bermuda, looping around for a while, and then cruising up the southeastern seaboard, where tornadoes spawned by storm caused significant damage. (more…)
Filed under: climate and weather, tropical storms and hurricanes, Weatherblog | Tagged: 2000 Atlantic hurricane season, 2012 Hurricane season, Atlantic hurricanes, Hurricane Nadine, National Hurricane Center, Tropical cyclone, Tropical Storm Nadine | Leave a Comment »
Posted on August 16, 2012 by Bob Berwyn
Atlantic system takes somewhat unusual path toward SW Europe
Tropical Storm Gordon is visible as an orange-colored cluster of thunderstorms in the upper left of the NOAA satellite image, but expected to speed eastward the next few days.
By Summit Voice
SUMMIT COUNTY — There’s a tropical storm in the Atlantic, but Gordon poses no threat to the U.S. Instead, the storm is forecast to move almost due east during the next several days, potentially threatening the Azores and perhaps even brushing the Iberian Peninsula and other parts of Western Europe with as an extra-tropical storm sometime next week.
According to the National Hurricane Center, Gordon is currently intensifying quickly and could reach near-hurricane strength by early in the weekend, far out in the mid-Atlantic.
But instead of moving westward in the clockwise circulation at the bottom of the subtropical ridge that’s typically parked over the central Atlantic this time of year, Gordon is north of the ridge, and is thus moving to the east along a somewhat unusual path. (more…)
Filed under: climate and weather, tropical storms and hurricanes | Tagged: 2012 Hurricane season, Atlantic hurricanes, Azores, National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Gordon | Leave a Comment »
Posted on June 23, 2012 by Bob Berwyn
Tropical Storm Debby is churning in the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Florida’s west coast gets a soaking
By Summit Voice
SUMMIT COUNTY — Tropical Storm Debby is generating sustained winds of 50 mph in northern Gulf of Mexico and spawning severe weather on its eastern edge, moving up the coast of Florida from Fort Myers to the Tampa area. Some of the offshore thunderstorms are showing signs of rotation, triggering concerns about possible tornadoes in the area.
According to the National Hurricane Center, Debby is the earliest fourth tropical system to form in the Atlantic Basin, beating out Hurricane Dennis, which became a tropical system on July 5, 2oo5.
Most forecast models show the storm gradually strengthening during the next few days, to near hurricane force strength by mid-week.The models are still split on the ultimate direction of the storm, with some tracks taking the system eastward across Florida, but most indicate the storm will move to west across the northern Gulf of Mexico, potentially with a landfall in Texas.
Filed under: climate and weather, tropical storms and hurricanes | Tagged: Atlantic hurricanes, Florida, Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of Mexico hurricanes, National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Debby | 1 Comment »
Posted on June 3, 2012 by Bob Berwyn
Summer missions planned to learn more about storm formation, intensification and the role of dry and dusty Saharan air
Hurricane Igor, left, and Tropical Storm Julia over the Atlantic in Sept. 2010. SATELLITE IMAGE COURTESY NASA.
A NASA Global Hawk drone.
By Summit Voice
SUMMIT COUNTY — Along with several government and university partners, NASA will use unmanned aircraft to try and unravel some of the mysteries of hurricane formation and intensification in the Atlantic Basin.
Among other things, the Global Hawk aircraft will study the role of the hot, dry and dusty Saharan air layer in tropical storms. Existing research on how that air mass affects hurricanes has not delivered conclusive results.
The missions will also examine the extent to which deep convection in the inner-core region of storms is a key driver of intensity change or just a response to storms finding favorable sources of energy. (more…)
Filed under: climate and weather, Environment, tropical storms and hurricanes | Tagged: 2012 Hurricane season, Atlantic hurricanes, Global Hawk, Goddard Space Flight Center, hurricane research, Wallops Flight Facility | Leave a Comment »
Posted on May 25, 2012 by Bob Berwyn
Beryl named as subtropical storm
Subtropical Storm Beryl is spinning off the southeastern coast of the U.S.
Beryl may make landfall as s tropical storm somewhere near the Florida-Georgia border.
By Summit Voice
SUMMIT COUNTY — Although the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is just a few days away, Beryl, the second named storm of the season, has formed off the coast of the Carolinas.
Tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for parts of the southeastern coast from Florida up to South Carolina, where a storm surge and heavy rains are expected Sunday. According to the National Hurricane Center forecast, the storm is likely to peak with winds of 50 mph. (more…)
Filed under: climate and weather, tropical storms and hurricanes | Tagged: Atlantic hurricane season, Atlantic hurricanes, Beryl, Gulf Stream, Hurricane warnings, Tropical cyclone | Leave a Comment »
Posted on May 19, 2012 by Bob Berwyn
Tropical Storm Alberto may brush parts of the Eastern Seaboard with tropical storm-force winds the next 48 hours.
Alberto is first tropical storm to form before official start of the season since 2003
By Summit Voice
SUMMIT COUNTY — A couple of weeks before the “official” start of the hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center says this year’s first tropical storm — Alberto — has developed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, off the coast of the Carolinas.
Alberto has sustained winds of 45 mph and is no threat to land right now, although the hurricane center may issue advisories for parts of the coast later Saturday night. (more…)
Filed under: climate and weather | Tagged: 2012 Hurricane season, Atlantic hurricane season, Atlantic hurricanes, Carolinas, Tropical Storm Alberto | Leave a Comment »
Posted on September 4, 2011 by Bob Berwyn
Impacts to U.S. still uncertain
Katia is developing a symetrical outflow pattern in this NOAA satellite image.
By Summit Voice
SUMMIT COUNTY — Katia, recently downgraded from hurricane to tropical storm status, may yet regain strength, but forecasts are still struggling to predict the storm’s wobbly path across the Atlantic.
Satellite and radar data late Saturday night suggested an increase in the organization of the storm’s clouds, with formation of a round, dense overcast and better defined outflow, but the mid- and low-level circulation centers are not aligned, which suggests that the storm may not be as strong as it appears in visual images, according to the latest National Hurricane Center forecast discussion. (more…)
Filed under: climate and weather | Tagged: Atlantic hurricanes, Bermuda, Hurricane Katia, Katia forecast, National Hurricane Center, Tropical cyclones 2011, Tropical storm Katia | Leave a Comment »