Tropical Storm Ophelia forms over the Atlantic

Posted on September 20, 2011 by Bob Berwyn

Tropical Storm Ophelia is heading west toward the Lesser Antilles.

It’s unclear whether the latest tropical system will affect the U.S. next week

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — After a brief lull in the hurricane season, Tropical Storm Ophelia has formed over the tropical Atlantic with winds of about 40 mph.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the storm is still coalescing, and at this point, bands of heavy convection are located well away from the center, to the northeast and south.

Ophelia will be moving over warm water the next few days, but will face some wind shear, so the hurricane center is not forecasting any rapid strengthening in the next few days. The official forecast calls for the winds to build up to about 50 mph for the next three days. Wind shear is expected to strengthen after that as a low pressure system develops north of Puerto Rico.

Some of the forecast models take the storm due westward and into the Lesser Antilles, while other models show Ophelia veering to the northwest and approaching Puerto Rico by Sunday.

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Tropical Storm Lee brewing in the Gulf of Mexico

Posted on September 2, 2011 by Bob Berwyn

Parts of northern Gulf Coast could see 10-15 inches of rain

The GOES satellite water vapor image of the tropical atlantic region shows Tropical Storm Katia, still far out at sea, and Tropical Depression 14 building in the Gulf of Mexico.

By Summit Voice

Another GOES satellite image shows Tropical Storm Katia churning in the southern Atlantic, just at line between night and day.

SUMMIT COUNTY — Flying into the cluster of thunderstorms in the northern Gulf of Mexico helped hurricane forecasters determine that the low pressure has now developed a closed circulation that is defined enough to be classified as Tropical Depression 13. Winds are still light in the central part of the depression, but a high pressure is forecast to build in the area, enabling the depression to strengthen gradually in the next 24 to 48 hours, possibly becoming Tropical Storm Lee sometime Friday.

Forecast models are in disagreement as to how much the disturbance will strengthen, but some projections show the depression reaching tropical storm strength in the next few days. The storm is moving slowly and is forecast to drop heavy rains on parts of the Gulf Coast. But since the movement of the storm is not well-defined, it’s not clear where the heaviest precipitation will occur. Generally, the stormy weather will move north and make landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast, but that might not happen until early next week.

For now, a tropical storm warning is in effect from Pascagoula, Mississippi to Sabine Pass, Texas, with gusty winds, high surf expected in the area — and a lot of rain. According to the National Hurricane Center 10 to 15 inches of rain could fall over parts of southern Louisiana, with some spots picking up as much as 20 inches.

Winds are forecast to strengthen to 45 mph in the next 24 hours and reach as high as 60 mph in 48 hours, just before making landfall. If it reaches tropical storm strength, it would be called Lee, the 12th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, although there is another disturbance north of Bermuda that could also become a tropical storm in the next few days.

A storm surge is expected to raise water levels by one to three feet above ground level in areas of onshore flow. As a result, officials in New Orleans are taking precautions by trying to drain some low-lying areas.

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Katia could become a major hurricane in 72 hours

Posted on August 31, 2011 by Bob Berwyn

National Hurricane Center also watching a Gulf of Mexico disturbance

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By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Katia, the latest tropical cyclone to spin off the coast of Africa and across the Atlantic, has reached hurricane force, with sustained winds of 75 mph extending about 25 miles out from the center of circulation. The category one storm is still in a favorable environment for strengthening and could become a major hurricane with 120 mph winds by the weekend, according to the latest bulletin from the National Hurricane Center.

Katia is moving west-northwest at about 20 mph, but is expected to slow down and veer more northward during the next 48 hours, on a track that would clear the Windward Islands in the eastern Caribbean and more in the direction of Bermuda. Some of the long-range forecast models show Katia turning away from the U.S. mainland altogether. (more…)

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