The Hewlett Fire now encompasses a 982-acre footprint in Poudre Canyon.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Fire experts in Colorado now say they believe the Hewlett Fire, which has grown to almost 1,000 acres, was human-caused, though the exact source of ignition remains under investigation.

According to the latest Inciweb.org update on the fire, a firefighter suffered minor injuries and was treated and release. About 200 firefighters are involved in the suppression and control efforts.

The wildfire is burning in Poudre Canyon on the Canyon Lakes Ranger District of the Roosevelt National Forest. The fire is located approximately 20 miles northwest of Fort Collins.

In dry conditions, the fire grew slightly overnight, and gusty winds forecast for Wednesday could add new challenges for the firefighters battling the blaze in steep and hazardous terrain.

A pre-evacuation notice remains in effect. Up-to-date information on potential evacuations and emergency communications is online at the Larimer County emergency services website.

A heavy air tanker and a pair of helicopters are assisting ground crews, with efforts focused on structure protection and  securing fire lines in areas near the community.

The Sunflower Fire.

SUMMIT COUNTY — Firefighters in Arizona reported “extreme” fire behavior in the rapidly growing Sunflower Fire, which tripled in size, to more than 12,000 acres in the past 24 hours.

Working beneath towering smoke plumes in steep canyons and rocky hillsides, abut 400 firefighters managed to achieve about 7 percent containment on the fire that’s been burning near Payson since May 12.

Most firefighting efforts will be focused on containing any new starts in the vicinity of the fire and establishing fire lines along forest roads and a powerline corridor in the area.

Winds are expected to shift to the north, potentially leading to growth of the fire in new areas. Temps Wednesday once again are forecast to be in the 90s, with relative humidity in single digits.

The fire is burning in grass, chaparral, pinyon pine and heavy Arizona cypress trees in the southwest corner and firefighters say the potential for growth is extreme.

Also in Arizona, the 1,900 Bull Flat Fire continues to burn in a remote area within the Chediski Fire scar.

How hot will it get? Image courtesy NASA.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Average temperatures in the Rocky Mountains could soar by more than 6 degrees in the summer and 4 degrees in the winter in the next few decades, according to a new statistical analysis of climate models by researchers at Ohio State University.

The Hudson Bay region will likely experience the largest temperature swings, especially in the winter. Temperatures could rise an average of about 10.7 degrees, possibly because meting ice will reduce the region’s albedo. In the summer, the Hudson Bay region might only see average temperatures rise by about 2 degrees, the scientists said after fine-tuning a sophisticated climate model that helps narrow the gap between previous predictions.

The analysis examines groups of regional climate models, finds the commonalities between them, and determines how much weight each individual climate projection should get in a consensus climate estimate. Through maps on the statisticians’ website, people can see how their own region’s temperature will likely change by 2070 – overall, and for individual seasons of the year.

“One of the criticisms from climate-change skeptics is that different climate models give different results, so they argue that they don’t know what to believe,”said Noel Cressie, professor of statistics and director of Ohio State’s Program in Spatial Statistics and Environmental Statistics.

“We wanted to develop a way to determine the likelihood of different outcomes, and combine them into a consensus climate projection,” Cressie said. “We show that there are shared conclusions upon which scientists can agree with some certainty, and we are able to statistically quantify that certainty.”

For their initial analysis, Cressie and Kang chose to combine two regional climate models developed for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Though the models produced a wide variety of climate variables, the researchers focused on temperatures during a 100-year period: First, the climate models’ temperature values from 1971 to 2000, and then the climate models’ temperature values projected for 2041 to 2070. The data were broken down into blocks of area 50 kilometers (about 30 miles) on a side, throughout North America.

Averaging the results over those individual blocks, the statistical analysis estimated that average land temperatures across North America will rise about 4.5 degrees by 2070. That result is in agreement with the findings of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Cressie cautioned that this first study is based on a combination of a small number of models. Nevertheless, he continued, the statistical computations are scalable to a larger number of models. The study shows that climate models can indeed be combined to achieve consensus, and the certainty of that consensus can be quantified.

The statistical analysis could be used to combine climate models from any region in the world, though, he added, it would require an expert spatial statistician to modify the analysis for other settings.

Related articles

• Global warming: Extreme summer highs expected frequently (summitcountyvoice.com)

Cattle grazing continues to degrade vast tracts of public lands in the West. PHOTO COURTESY BLM.

Evaluation of rangelands report suggests damage is growing more widespread

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — By some estimates, the amount of western public lands damaged by improper grazing has increased dramatically in the past 10 years, according to a watchdog group that analyzed a recent  federal rangelands assessment.

According to the federal report, slmost 40 percent of BLM allotments surveyed since 1998 have failed to meet the agency’s own required land health standards, with impairment of more than 33 million acres, an area exceeding the State of Alabama in size, attributed to livestock grazing.

The assessment covers grazing allotments in 13 western states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, Washington and Wyoming.

The report totals BLM acreage failing to meet rangeland health standards in measures such as water quality, watershed functionality and wildlife habitat:

• Overall, 30 percent of BLM’s allotment area surveyed to date suffers from significant livestock-induced damage, suggesting that once the remaining allotments have been surveyed, the total impaired area could well be larger than the entire State of Washington; and
• While factors such as drought, fire, invasion by non-native plants, and sprawl are important, livestock grazing is identified by BLM experts as the primary cause (nearly 80 percent) of BLM lands not meeting health standards.

“Livestock’s huge toll inflicted on our public lands is a hidden subsidy which industry is never asked to repay,” said Kirsten Stade, advocacy director for Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility, a Washington, D.C.-based watchdog group.

Stade said the percentage of impairment in lands assessed remains fairly consistent over the past decade.

“The more we learn about actual conditions, the longer is the ecological casualty list,” she said.

Last November, PEER filed a scientific integrity complaint, alleging that the BLM had directed scientists to exclude livestock grazing as a factor in changing landscapes as part of a $40 million study.  The complaint was referred to a newly appointed Scientific Integrity Officer for BLM but there have been reports of progress in the agency’s self-investigation since then.

According to PEER, more oversight and precise standards for measuring rangelands health. Currently, the agency uses ambiguous categories that mask actual conditions.

PEER’s analysis of the report suggests that vague terminology obscures accurate damage estimates and inflates the perception of restoration progress.

For example, in 2001 nearly 60 percent of BLM lands (94 million acres; an area larger than Montana) consisted of grazing allotments that were supposed to be managed to “improve the current resource condition” – a number that has stayed unchanged for a decade.

“Commercial livestock operations are clearly a major force driving degradation of wild places, jeopardy to wildlife, major loss of water quality and growing desertification throughout the American West,” Stade said. “The BLM can no longer remain in denial on the declining health of our vast open range.”

The Forest Service is trying to assess cumulative impacts to lynx in Summit County and developing tools for a long-term conservation strategy.

By Bob Berwyn

SUMMIT COUNTY —The U.S. Forest Service has hit the pause button on a number of projects in Summit County while biologists assess how new trails, ski area improvements and a proposed new backcountry hut  affect threatened lynx.

Wildlife experts say that, along with a resident population of four lynx, they’re seeing more and more evidence that Summit County is an important crossroads for the wild cats as they move across the state and they want better information on cumulative impacts in all parts of the county south of I-70. And emerging new data may also help the agency shape a pro-active long-term conservation strategy.

“Projects that are already approved are not affected,” said acting Dillon District Ranger  Peech Keller, explaining that the cumulative effects analysis is for all projects that are in the planning phase. That includes proposed travel management implementation in the Golden Horseshoe, a proposed backcountry ski hut on Baldy Mountain, a proposal for trail and facility upgrades at Keystone Mountain, a proposed motorized trail on Tenderfoot Mountain, as well as permits for outfitters and guides.

“Essentially, every NEPA project is free to move forward except for the lynx assessment part,” she said, adding that she hopes the assessment will be done sometime in June.

“The information may help us design our projects and ameliorate effects … and help determine design criteria. It may help us look at what parameters of wildlife habitat we should be looking at when we analyze a project;  maybe they’re different from what we’re doing now,’ she said.

“The timing was right,” said White River National Forest biologist Wendy McGuire. “We found ourselves facing a lot of activity in Summit County and had never stepped back to do a lynx assessment,” McGuire said. “We don’t have the whole picture if we do it piecemeal. That was the major thing that was bothering biologists; not having a clear overall picture of trying to manage lynx in Summit County with everything that’s going on.”

McGuire said the assessment will include information from a two-year Forest Service study at Vail Pass (and a similar study from the San Juans) that looked at how lynx interact with recreation. Other data comes from the Colorado Parks and Wildlife lynx tracking data base.

All that information will be blended together with vegetation maps, land activity data, timber harvests, recent land-use decisions, outfitter and guide use and decisions that are pending right now to try and develop a comprehensive picture, McGuire said.

Eventually, she hopes to produce maps that show which areas are really important for lynx conservation,  which would help guide future reviews and permitting, perhaps steering some uses toward less critical areas while trying to avoid impacts in the most sensitive habitat and movement corridors.

“There’s a lot of pressure in Summit County for everything,” said U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service biologist Kurt Broderdorp, outlining the multitude of various projects he’s been  reviewing and outlining other pressures on wildlife habitat,including logging, residential development, increased demand for backcountry experiences, the proposed Breckenridge ski area expansion on Peak 6 and other projects in the works.

“All these things are occurring in the same space, and something’s got to give,” Broderdorp said. “I think they (the Forest Service) came to the realization that they need to take a step back and take a broader look at what needs to be done.

“And it’s not just lynx,” he continued. “All forest carnivores are being affected. The reality of it is, we presumably have an expanding population of lynx, and once that space in southern Colorado is filled up, those lynx are going to have to go somewhere. Some have popped over the Tenmile Range, just east of Breckenridge, and we also have some unpublished data that they’re heading across southern Summit County, toward Loveland Pass and crossing I-70,” he continued. “The fact of the matter is, when they’re moving north, they’re going to come through Summit County.”

Broderdorp and McGuire emphasized that the agencies hope to partner with the state and with the county when they get a little bit more of the information compiled in usable form. Potentially, the county’s open space department could also have a role in planning for a local long-term lynx conservation strategy, he said.

Related articles

• Summit County: Keystone plans major upgrades (summitcountyvoice.com)
• Summit County: Forest Service planning big post-beetle reforestation push at local campgrounds this summer (summitcountyvoice.com)
• Breckenridge: Peak 6 expansion decision due next month (summitcountyvoice.com)
• Op-ed: Keystone plan a golden opportunity for restoration (summitcountyvoice.com)
• Summit County: Old Dillon Reservoir project back on track (summitcountyvoice.com)

Denver Water will try to maintain water levels for marina operation on Dillon Reservoir under a historic Colorado water agreement.

Historic agreement hailed as start of a new collaborative era

By Bob Berwyn

SUMMIT COUNTY — A major water agreement aimed at ending decades of feuding and litigation between the Front Range and the West Slope moved one step closer to completion this week, as Denver Water, Summit County and Grand County representatives inked the deal at a ceremony in Hot Sulphur Springs.

Along with being hailed as a model of collaboration by Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, the deal also gives all the parties some certainties as to the future management and disposition of the state’s most precious resource.

Against a backdrop of an intensifying mountain drought, Hickenlooper said this year’s dry conditions magnify the need for cooperative solutions and highlight the fragility of the state’s rivers in the face of possible climate change impacts and increasing demand from a growing population.

“Some of our watersheds are reporting the driest conditions in our recorded history … this puts Colorado on a better footing, with more secure water sources both for headwaters counties and Denver,” Hickenlooper said.

Most importantly for Denver Water, Summit and Grand counties agree not to oppose a plan to expand diversions from the West Slope through the Moffat Tunnel Collection System, a project that, in its present form, is still bitterly opposed by conservation and river advocacy groups.

In return, the headwaters counties get some assurances on flows, as well as money for mitigation and enhancements. All the agreement documents are online at the Colorado River District website. Denver Water also agrees not to expand its service area and to increase water recycling and storage for reuse.

More benefits for headwaters counties:

• Denver  Water  will  pay  $11  million  for  projects  such  as  nutrient  loading,  aquatic  habitat,  the   Berthoud  Pass  sedimentation  pond,  Windy  Gap  pumping  costs  for  environmental  purposes  and   Learning  by  Doing.
• Denver  Water  will  make  available  1,000  acre-­‐feet  of  water  each  year  from  its  Fraser  River   Collection  System  for  environmental  purposes  in  Grand  County,  at  times  and  locations   requested  by  Grand  County.  This  water  otherwise  would  have  been  diverted  to  the  East  Slope.     This  water  will  be  matched  with  an  additional  1,000  acre-­‐feet  from  Williams  Fork  Reservoir   under  specified  conditions  that  also  will  be  released  at  the  request  of  Grand  County.
• Denver  Water  will  limit  its  existing  right  to  reduce  bypass  flows  to  times  when  it  has  banned   residential  lawn  watering  (estimated  to  provide  3,000  acre-feet and  to  manage   spills  from  its  Fraser  River  Collection  System  to  provide  environmental  benefits.
• Denver  Water  will  provide  250  acre-­‐feet  of  water  without  charge  for  use  in  districts  and  towns   in  Summit  County.
• Denver  Water  will  use  best  efforts  to  maintain  the  water  level  of  Dillon  Reservoir  at  or  above   9,012  feet  in  elevation  between  June  18  and  Labor  Day.
• Denver  Water  will  provide  1,493  acre-­‐feet  of  water  to  various  Summit  County  water  users  and   ski  areas.
• Denver  Water agrees not to exercise  its  existing  right  to  reduce  bypass  flows  from  Dillon   Reservoir  into  the  Blue  River  during  droughts  to  below  the  amount  of  inflow  to  the  reservoir   unless  it  has  banned  residential  lawn  watering  in  its  combined  service  area.

More details in a six-page summary of the deal on our Scribd.com feed.

“This agreement honors the recognition that protecting water resources and tourism in our headwaters counties also protects the entire state of Colorado’s economy,” said Summit County Commissioner Karn Stiegelmeier.

Read this Summit Voice story for more on the benefits to Summit County.

Despite concerns about additional diversions from the Fraser River, Grand County signed the agreement because its the best that can be done for both sides of the Continental Divide, according to Grand County Comissioner James Newberry. Since there’s no real legal basis for blanket opposition to increased diversions under Colorado water law, a cooperative approach will at least enable some of the money that would otherwide be spent on lawsuits to go toward protecting and enhancing the Fraser and the Colorado River.

“Our goal today was to make sure Grand County is better off, and not rely totally on the permitting process,” Newberry said, referring to the ongoing federal review of the Moffat project. “This is a new way of developing water in Colorado,” Newberry said. “Only through cooperative effort can we do the right thing for the resource.”

But not all issues have been resolved. Key pieces of the puzzle include the operation of Green Mountain reservoir, critical both to Denver Water and the West Slope, and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation still needs to approve those terms. And farther downstream, the question of how to manage flows with regard to the Shoshone power plant still hasn’t been answered completely.

The entities also signed on to the “Learning by Doing” process, by which Denver Water, Grand County, the Colorado River District, the Middle Park Water Conservancy District and others will use the flexibility in Denver Water’s water system to manage flows for the benefit of the environment in Grand County.

In addition to today’s signatories, the agreement has been signed by Eagle County, Eagle River Water & Sanitation District, the Upper Eagle Regional Water Authority and Eagle Park Reservoir Company. Other West Slope entities are expected to sign in the near future.

Denver Water commissioner Penfield Tate said he hopes the deal marks a new era for the state, with water forming the basis for “vibrant, enduring communities.”

“There’s a better way of doing business than lawsuits … it’s better to have an agreement and certainty,” Tate said, asking all the state’s residents not to take water for granted.

“It doesn’t belong to me or to you, it belongs to the planet; it’s for the entire state … This isn’t a one-shot deal, we’ll be working statewide on an ongoing basis to develop additional supplies and work on reuse and conservation,” Tate concluded.

For the headwaters counties, it’s also important that Denver Water agrees not to pursue any additional water development projects without agreement from the basin of origin.

Previous stories:

• Anglers want insurance policy for Colorado River projects
• Water deal a win-win, officials from Front Range and West Slope say at the state of the river meeting in Frisco
• Colorado: Proposed water deal could end decades of fighting
• Kumbaya on the Colorado River?

Alpenglow.

SUMMIT COUNTY — An incredible sequence of evening lighting last week, as dark, stormy skies provided a backdrop for some amazing alpenglow.

Quiet cove.

Kissed by the sun.

Sky lights.

Sunset.

The canyon.

Shoreline sunset.

You don’t know what you got til it’s gone …

Pondering … why did one tree survive the beetles?

Red indicates above-average temperatures in this global map of April 2012 temperature anomalies. IMAGE COURTESY NOAA/NCDC.

Northern hemisphere snow cover extent has been trending below normal in April.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Very warm land-surface temperatures around the world helped propel April 2012 into the top five warmest Aprils on record for the planet, marking the largest departure from 20th century averages since Nov. 2010, at the beginning of a two-year La Niña episode.

The combined global average land and sea surface temperature for the month was 57.87 degrees, more than one degree above the long-term norm, according the National Climatic Data Center monthly summary. It was the 36th April in a row with above-average readings. The last time April temps were below average was in 1976.

Despite the remnant effects of a fading La Niña, the global average sea surface temperature was .68 degrees above the 20th century average, the 11-warmest on record.

Land surface temperature anomalies were particularly pronounced in April, at 2.5 degrees above average, making it the second-warmest April on record, behind 2007. Readings were warmer than average across nearly all the world’s land masses, with the warmest temperatures reported from Alaska and the Lower 48 states and Mexico and most of Russia.

Exceptions were in northern Australia and parts of Europe, where Norway and Sweden reported the coolest April readings since 1968.

For the year to date (January to April) land and sea surface temps combined where the 15th-warmest on record and the coolest since 2008. Arctic sea ice in April was slightly below average, while sea ice around Antarctica was 9.2 percent above average, making it the sixth-largest sea ice extent in the 34-year satellite record.
For the ninth year in a row, April snow cover in the northern hemisphere was well below average — the fourth-smallest in the 46-year record. April snow cover extent has been below average every year since 1999 except for 2003.

Compiled from the NOAA National Climatic Data Center State of the Climate: Global Analysis for April 2012, published online May 2012, retrieved on May 15, 2012 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2012/4.

The Sunflower Fire, near Payson, Arizona, has grown to more than 4,500 acres.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Increasing southwest winds and continued hot and dry weather will present challenging conditions for firefighters trying to contain the Sunflower Fire in Arizona, which grew to 4.600 acres and is only 5 percent contained. The fire is located about 20 miles south of Payson, near Sunflower.

The fire is burning in grass, chaparral, pinyon pine, heavy Arizona cypress trees and has been running in some areas, with spotting reported from the perimeter. Winds have been gusting around 10 to 20 mph and temperatures are forecast to be in the mid-90s, with relative humidity readings in the single digits.

Fire managers said that, due to the rugged terrain, the fire may burn for a long time, with potential smoke impacts to local communities. Several power lines are threatened by the flames, and the potential for growth is extreme, according to the latest update on Inciweb.org.

The cause of the fire is still under investigation. More than 250 firefighters are working to contain the blaze.

Pizza may be good, but it’s not a vegetable, according to Congressman Jared Polis. IMAGE VIA WIKIPEDIA AND THE CREATIVE COMMONS.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Colorado Congressman Jared Polis squarely aimed his political guns at agribusinesses this week, unveiling a bill that would roll back last year’s “absurd decision” by Congress to define pizza as a vegetable in school meals.

At issue are U.S. Department of Agriculture nutrition guidelines issued last year that would have prevented pizza from being counted as a vegetable in school meals. But after intense lobbying by the frozen food industry, Congress backed down and decided that the smear of tomato paste on a slice of pizza qualifies as a “vegetable.”

“Agribusinesses should never dictate the quality of school meals,” Polis said. “Big food companies have their priorities, which include selling cheap, unhealthy foods at high profits. But parents and schools have their priorities; making sure our kids eat right because research shows a clear connection between nutrition and student performance in school.”

Polis said his School Lunch Improvements for Children’s Education (SLICE) Act would  protect students’ health by allowing sensible nutrition standards for pizza in the meals our children eat at schools.

Polis announced the new legislation today at Louisville Middle School in Colorado, where he was joined by Boulder Valley School District Food Service Director, Ann Cooper, who has been a leader in improving nutrition in school meals.

“For the past three years (our district) has worked hard to ensure that all of our students have access to healthy delicious food in schools,” Cooper said. “We have eliminated added transfats, high fructose corn syrup, colors and dyes. We are proud to have added salad bars in every school with fresh fruit and vegetables as well as organic milk, whole grains and instituted a priority on regional procurement. We fully support Representative Polis’ work to improve school food as our children’s health is our most important asset.”

With alarming increases in child obesity rates and other troubling indicators of child health, Congress acted to update national school meal standards in December 2010 by reauthorizing the federal Child Nutrition Act. But the current Congress undermined those standards last year when it included language in a USDA funding bill that would allow pizza to qualify as a vegetable due to the small amount of tomato paste it contains.

While tomato paste has a small amount of nutrients, pizza is loaded with sugar, salt, bread and cheese, which carry a great deal of fat and carbohydrates that turn into sugar during digestion. Categorizing pizza as a vegetable because of its small amount of tomato paste is exactly the wrong approach, as Type II diabetes rates among children and child obesity continue to climb.

The SLICE Act would restore USDA’s authority to implement healthful standards to pizza in public schools in three significant ways:

• Allow the USDA to accurately count 1/8 of a cup of tomato paste as 1/8 of a cup, instead of half of a cup, which qualifies pizza as a vegetable;
• Allow the USDA to implement science-based sodium reduction targets; and,
• Allow the USDA to set a whole grain requirement.

With Congress preparing to reauthorize farm and nutrition programs this year, Polis is hopeful that the SLICE Act can be incorporated into the larger agriculture bill should it be acted on in this session. A fact sheet on the bill is available here.