Colorado: No El Niño, no La Niña – what’s driving the weather?

Posted on March 18, 2013 by Bob Berwyn

Spring outlook trends toward warm and dry conditions

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The Madden-Julian Oscillation has played a role in Colorado weather this winter.

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — With neither El Niño or a La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean, long-range weather forecasters have been struggling to develop confidence in their outlook for the coming spring season — a critical time for much of the West in terms of getting some relief from drought conditions.

A wet and cool spring could at least take the edge off the drought in some areas, helping to maintain stream flows and reduce the potential for massive and dangerous wildfires. Conversely, a return to last year’s very dry and warm spring pattern would spell trouble for places like Colorado.

So if the El Niño-La Niña cycle isn’t driving the weather, what is? What we do know is that conditions over the Pacific Ocean are the key to understanding exactly what path storms will take across the western United States, and that conditions in the North Atlantic can also be a factor. (more…)

Filed under: climate and weather, Colorado, Drought, El Niño, La Niña, Summit County Colorado, Weatherblog | Tagged: , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Weather: The big chill?

Posted on January 6, 2013 by Bob Berwyn
The 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center calls for a high chance of colder-than-average temperatures across much of the western and central U.S.

The 8-14 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center calls for a high chance of colder-than-average temperatures across much of the western and central U.S.

Forecasters warn of possible ‘Arctic outbreak’ in mid-January

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — A sudden stratospheric warming in the Arctic region may push extremely cold Arctic air into parts of the mid-latitudes during the next few weeks, according to forecasters with AccuWeather.com, who say the Arctic outbreak could start in the Pacific Northwest and then move into the northern Rockies and the central U.S.

Sudden stratospheric warming is considered by some meteorologists to be among the most dramatic atmospheric events, occuring when the westerly winds of the polar vortex slow down, or sometimes even stop and reverse direction. When the stratosphere, between 6 and 30 miles high, warms, it forces cold air to to build in the lower levels of the atmosphere and eventually surge southward. (more…)

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Hurricane Sandy about to sweep across Jamaica

Posted on October 24, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Powerful late season storm could affect U.S. East Coast

Hurricane Sandy will engulf Jamaica in the next few hours.

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — Jamaica is about to take a direct hit from what is now Hurricane Sandy, which is generating sustained winds of 80 mph just off the island nation’s southern coast. Hurricane warnings are in effect for the entire island, where six to 12 inches of rain is expected, leading to dangerous flooding.

Sandy’s storm surge will raise water levels by as much as one to three feet above normal along Jamaica’s southern and eastern coast, along with large and dangerous waves. Hurricane-force winds extend outward about 25 miles from the center of the storm, with tropical storm force winds extending outward up to 140 miles.

A hurricane warning is also in effect for most of eastern Cuba, where the storm surge could reach three to five feet along the southeastern coast. An even more intense storm surge of five to eight feet is expected in the Bahamas, where a hurricane watch is in effect.

A tropical storm watch has also been issued for parts of Florida’s southeastern coast.

Sandy will pass over Jamaica Wednesday afternoon and evening and reach Cuba Wednesday night and approach the Bahamas Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southeast Florida coast Friday.

Beyond that, each subsequent forecast model has been pushing the storm closer to the East Coast, where emergency preparations have started. Some tracks show the storm interacting with an approaching cold front and hitting the North East as a powerful non-tropical storm, but the exact path is still uncertain.

 

 

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At 21 days, Tropical Storm Nadine enters books as one of longest-lived Atlantic storms on record

Posted on October 4, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

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Tropical Storm Nadine, the fifth-longest-lived storm on record in the Atlantic Basin. Map courtesy Supportstorm.

Hurricane Nadine spins over the open waters of the Atlantic on Oct. 2, 2012. Satellite photo courtesy NASA.

Only four other storms have survived longer during the observed era

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Most tropical weather systems make the news when they get really big and threaten coastal areas, but Tropical Storm Nadine, spinning near the Azores, will enter the record books as one of the longest-lived storms in the Atlantic Basin on record.

Nadine has been at tropical or subtropical strength for 21 days. Only four other storms have lasted longer, most recently Kyle, in 2002, which managed to survive for 22 days after forming near Bermuda, looping around for a while, and then cruising up the southeastern seaboard, where tornadoes spawned by storm caused significant damage. (more…)

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Colorado: A weather rant

Posted on August 31, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Showers remain in the forecast. Map courtesy NWS.

Lingering monsoon still shaping high country forecast

By Bob Berwyn

SUMMIT COUNTY — The trend of economically motivated weather forecasting by some pundits in the high country is just about as persistent as this summer’s monsoon rains have been. Most recently, the local newspaper took a stab at predicting Labor Day weekend weather about a week ago, calling for dry and sunny conditions.

Well, guess what? Labor Day weekend is here, and it looks like it might be a good idea to keep a rain jacket handy, as the showery pattern is likely to persist for the next few days.

“This is likely to continue until we see a major shift in the upper air pattern over the West,” the National Weather Service wrote in its daily weather discussion, and looking outside at the thunderstorms building over Buffalo Mountain suggests that forecast might be fairly accurate. (more…)

Filed under: climate and weather, Colorado, Snow and weather, Summit County Colorado, Summit County snow and weather, Weatherblog | Tagged: , , , | 1 Comment »

Tropical Storm Isaac taking aim at Florida

Posted on August 23, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Twin trouble in the Atlantic

Tropical storms Isaac and Joyce are both visible in this NOAA satellite image of the southern Atlantic Ocean.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT VOICE — Two tropical weather systems are now churning across the Atlantic Basin, with Tropical Storm Isaac expected to cause problems in Haiti and potentially in Florida in a few days. And Joyce, just upgraded to tropical storm status by the National Hurricane Center, is still far out to sea, but may take aim at Bermuda next week. (more…)

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Weather: Storm delivers … dust

Posted on March 19, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Coming week looks dry and warm

Most of the moisture in the jet stream is diving south of Colorado.

SUMMIT COUNTY — The latest storm to roll through the Rockies delivered plenty of snow to the San Juans — as promised — but didn’t do a whole lot to boost the dwindling snowpack in the central and northern mountains, where only a few inches were reported.

After cool temps Monday and Tuesday, highs could climb back into the upper 50s by mid week at valley elevations in the high country, with above-normal readings likely through next weekend. Spring has sprung.

Both Telluride and Wolf Creek did well with the southerly flow, picking up about a foot of snow, while Silverton reported 14 inches. Crested Butte and Vail reported 5 inches, with three inches around Aspen.

Perhaps more significantly, the storm brought another significant deposition of desert dust to at least some parts of the high country. According to early reports, dust was reported in the Summit County zone by backcountry observers, said Colorado Avalanche Information Center forecaster Scott Toepfer. (more…)

Filed under: climate and weather, Colorado, seasons, Summit County snow and weather, Weatherblog | Tagged: , , , | 1 Comment »

Weather: Something brewing?

Posted on March 17, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

A digging Pacific trough will favor the San Juans for snowfall.

Dust, fire weather, wind — and maybe a bit of snow for the northern mountains

By Bob Berwyn

SUMMIT COUNTY — After more than a week of unseasonably warm and dry weather, winter will make somewhat of a comeback in Colorado, as a southward-digging Pacific storm makes its way inland during the second half of the weekend and early next week.

As of Sunday morning, winter storm warnings were up for some southeastern Utah mountains, as well as watches for parts of the West Elks and the Telluride area.

Much of the rest of the West Slope, along with the Eastern Plains, are under a red flag warning, with high winds, warm temps and low humidity combining for dangerous fire conditions. The warning includes the lower elevations of Eagle County. (more…)

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Weather: March meltdown, record highs?

Posted on March 13, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

This year's mud season starts early in Colorado.

Storm possible this coming weekend in the Colorado high country

By Bob Berwyn

SUMMIT COUNTY — The early March meltdown will continue through much of the week, with temperatures running anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time of year, with highs reaching levels more often seen in mid- to late-April.

For the next few days, expect temps in the 50s at valley locations in the central Colorado mountains, with temps at the higher elevations in the 30s and 40s. By mid-week, temperatures in Summit County could be flirting with record highs, which are in the upper 50s for this time of year in Frisco.

A big storm that will pound the Sierra Nevada and the rest of California will move inland weekend, bringing the potential for some snow starting Sunday and into the first part of next week, but the long-range forecast is still far from certain, as some models take the storm south of the Colorado mountains. (more…)

Filed under: climate and weather, Colorado, global warming, seasons, Snow and weather, Summit County Colorado, Weatherblog | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Weather: The problem with forecasts …

Posted on February 10, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Outlook uncertain, so do your snow dance …

A complex Pacific weather pattern may send some Pacific storm energy toward Colorado next week — or, the flow may split once again, sending storms to the north and south of the state.

By Bob Berwyn

SUMMIT COUNTY — After a small “surprise” storm Wednesday night delivered several inches of snow to most of Colorado’s mountains, the outlook is once again murky, as forecasters struggle to decipher a complex storm track for next week.

A misleading tweet suggesting fresh snow for last weekend, while all the credible forecasts were pointing toward a classic upslope storm, with most snow falling east of the Divide. But when it comes to luring people to the mountains, reality and truth take a back seat to hype.

Bottom line: If you start seeing a flurry of tweets and other messages from the usual suspects about incoming powder, don’t hold your breath just yet. Alright, I’ll name names, what the heck – How did that 6-12 inches work out for you last week, Vail Resorts?

Of course there are always a few crystal-ball gazers and resort boosters who don’t have a problem with putting a potentially misleading spin on the forecast, like this bit, calling for a “changing weather pattern” next week.Turns out that the story is based on another popular forecasting website. But if visit that site, you’ll see that the Colorado outlook actually says something quite different from the way it was interpreted. (more…)

Filed under: climate and weather, Colorado, Snow and weather, Summit County snow and weather, Weatherblog | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

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