Global warming could fuel European hurricanes

Posted on March 20, 2013 by Bob Berwyn
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Tropical storms are more likely to affect Europe as Atlantic sea surface temperatures rise.

Severe winds to increase in the North Sea and the Gulf of Biscay, especially during autumn

By Bob Berwyn

SUMMIT COUNTY — European climate scientists say global warming will drive a northeastward expansion of the tropical Atlantic hurricane breeding ground, with four times as many storms of tropical origins affecting parts of Western Europe in coming decades.

In the Bay of Biscay, the number of storms with tropical-storm-force winds could increase from 2 to 13 by the end of the century, said researcher Reindert Haarsma.

The initial results suggest that the impacts may not be as great in the low-lying Netherlands as in some other areas because the strong winds associated with the events will generally be from the southwest, Haarsma said.

With hurricanes forming farther north and warmer sea surface temperatures in the region, tropical storms are more likely to reach the mid-latitudes, where they will merge with the prevailing westerlies. Even if they lose hurricane status, they are likely to remain stronger, and sometimes re-intensify before landfall, potentially with serious impacts in parts of Europe.

“Our model simulations clearly show that future tropical cyclones are more prone to hit Western Europe and do so earlier in the season,” said the researchers with the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. (more…)

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NOAA: 2012 Atlantic hurricane season above average

Posted on December 2, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

10 hurricanes, 19 named storm in Atlantic Basin in 2012

SUMMIT COUNTY — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has classified 2012 as an above-average year for hurricanes, based on the combined number, intensity, and duration of all tropical storms and hurricanes.

The season produced 19 named storms; 10 became hurricanes and one became a major hurricane.  The number of named storms is well above the average of 12. The number of hurricanes is also above the average of six, but the number of major hurricanes is below the average of three.

2012 was the second consecutive year that the mid-Atlantic and Northeast suffered devastating impacts from a named storm. Sandy, and Irene last year, caused fatalities, injuries, and tremendous destruction from coastal storm surge, heavy rainfall, inland flooding, and wind. Storms struck many parts of the country this year, including tropical storms Beryl and Debby in Florida, Hurricane Isaac in Louisiana, and Post-tropical Cyclone Sandy in New Jersey. (more…)

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Study suggests more intense hurricanes in coming decades

Posted on December 2, 2012 by Bob Berwyn
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NOAA’s GOES-13 satellite captured this visible image of Hurricane Sandy battering the U.S. East coast on Oct. 29 Image courtesy of NASA GOES Project.

More CO2 equals more powerful st0rms

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — The combination of more atmospheric carbon dioxide and less particulate pollution could result in a steady increase in the intensity of North Atlantic hurricanes, according University of Iowa researcher Gabriele Villarini, an assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering

The study is a compilation of results from some of the best available climate computer models of climate, said Villarini, who is also an assistant research engineer at IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering. Villarini conducted the study with Gabriel Vecchi of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (more…)

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Climate: Discussions raging on possible links between global warming and superstorm Sandy

Posted on October 31, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Hurricane Sandy bearing down on the East Coast. Satellite image courtesy NOAA.

Record-breaking storm spurs more public awareness about the potential for more frequent extreme weather events

By Bob Berwyn

SUMMIT COUNTY — With several all-time weather records shattered and early estimates that Hurricane Sandy may cost the U.S. economy some $20 to $25 billion, it’s clear that the storm lived up to its billing. Along with the cleanup, there’s also a raging debate about whether global warming was a factor in the storm’s development and path.

On the one side, environmental activists seeking to limit heat-trapping greenhouse gases have jumped on the so-called super storm as an opportunity to tout their cause. On the other side, global warming deniers and others have pulled out timeworn statistics about past hurricanes that supposedly were equally as strong.

The arguments at the extreme sides of the spectrum don’t ring true. Of course, there is no way to scientifically prove that increases in air and ocean temps directly contributed to this storm. There’s still so much natural variability in nature that you just can’t establish a causal link. (more…)

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Activists claim Hurricane Sandy is product of global warming

Posted on October 27, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Storm expected to have widespread impacts on East Coast

A satellite view of Sandy spinning near the southern tip of the Florida peninsula.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — A summer that started with a powerful and destructive Derecho across large parts of the eastern U.S. could end with a monster hybrid storm slamming the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, putting a punctuation mark on six months of extraordinary record-breaking weather, including heat waves and drought.

Hurricane Sandy, generating winds of 75 mph, is heading northward from the Caribbean and could make landfall early next week, bringing devastating winds and flooding to wide swath of the Eastern Seaboard, according to the National Weather Service.

Many forecasters are calling the storm and unprecedented event, while others are comparing it to the so-called perfect storm of 1991, when another tropical weather system merged with an early winter system from the north, sinking the Andrea Gail, a long-line swordfish boat. (more…)

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Hurricane Sandy about to sweep across Jamaica

Posted on October 24, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Powerful late season storm could affect U.S. East Coast

Hurricane Sandy will engulf Jamaica in the next few hours.

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — Jamaica is about to take a direct hit from what is now Hurricane Sandy, which is generating sustained winds of 80 mph just off the island nation’s southern coast. Hurricane warnings are in effect for the entire island, where six to 12 inches of rain is expected, leading to dangerous flooding.

Sandy’s storm surge will raise water levels by as much as one to three feet above normal along Jamaica’s southern and eastern coast, along with large and dangerous waves. Hurricane-force winds extend outward about 25 miles from the center of the storm, with tropical storm force winds extending outward up to 140 miles.

A hurricane warning is also in effect for most of eastern Cuba, where the storm surge could reach three to five feet along the southeastern coast. An even more intense storm surge of five to eight feet is expected in the Bahamas, where a hurricane watch is in effect.

A tropical storm watch has also been issued for parts of Florida’s southeastern coast.

Sandy will pass over Jamaica Wednesday afternoon and evening and reach Cuba Wednesday night and approach the Bahamas Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southeast Florida coast Friday.

Beyond that, each subsequent forecast model has been pushing the storm closer to the East Coast, where emergency preparations have started. Some tracks show the storm interacting with an approaching cold front and hitting the North East as a powerful non-tropical storm, but the exact path is still uncertain.

 

 

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Tropical Storm Sandy forms, likely to hit Jamaica

Posted on October 22, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Slow-moving storm headed for Cuba, Bahamas

Tropical Storm Sandy is quickly gathering strength in the southwestern Caribbean and could rake much of Jamaica with 70 mph winds.

Tropical Storm Sandy gathers strength over the Caribbean.

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — Tropical Storm Sandy, the 18th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, is generating winds of 40 mph and gaining strength over the warm waters of the Caribbean, south of Cuba. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Jamaica and Haiti, where five to 10, and up to 16 inches of rain may fall, leading to dangerous flash flooding.

The storm is expected to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches the south coast of Jamaica Wednesday, with sustained winds of 80 mph. For now, Tropical storm-force winds extend out about 70 miles from the center of the storm.

Once the storm tracks across Jamaica and Cuba the forecast models diverge, with some forecasts turning the storm out to sea, while others bring the system closer to the U.S. East Coast.

The storm is expected to intensify the next couple of days, then weaken as it interacts with the mountainous terrain of the islands, and starts to encounter southwest wind shear, but could still be packing winds of 65 mph as it nears the Bahamas later in the week.

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Global warming: New study shows links between melting Arctic sea ice and extreme weather in mid-latitudes

Posted on October 17, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Arctic sea ice dwindled to a new record low in Sept. 2012, with potentially serious consequences for weather in the mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere.

Shifting wind patterns may drive more intense and persistent heat waves, blizzards, drought and flooding

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — More studies are showing that the massive loss of Arctic sea ice is going to have significant effects on mid-latitude weather. With more solar energy going into the Arctic Ocean because of lost ice, there is reason to expect more extreme weather events, such as heavy snowfall, heat waves, and flooding in North America and Europe, according to a new report.

“What we’re seeing is stark evidence that the gradual temperature increase is not the important story related to climate change,” said Rutgers researcher Jennifer Francis. “It’s the rapid regional changes and increased frequency of extreme weather that global warming is causing. As the Arctic warms at twice the global rate, we expect an increased probability of extreme weather events across the temperate latitudes of the northern hemisphere, where billions of people live,” she said.

The NOAA study, led by James Overland, Ph.D., of NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle, Wash., shows that normal west-to-east flowing upper-level winds have been replaced by a more north-south undulating, or wave-like pattern. This new wind pattern transports warmer air into the Arctic and pushes Arctic air farther south, and may influence the likelihood of persistent weather conditions in the mid-latitudes. (more…)

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Hurricane Paul aiming at west coast of Baja

Posted on October 15, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Storm could bring dangerous surge, flash flooding in the hills

Hurricane Paul, still with a distinct eye, is visible just off the tip of the Baja Peninsula in this NOAA satellite image from Monday afternoon.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Hurricane watches have been hoisted along the southwest coast of Baja, where a rare land-falling storm could bring a dangerous storm surge and the chance flash flooding in coastal hills.

Hurricane Paul is barreling toward the Baja coast with sustained winds still topping 100 mph, although the National Hurricane Center says the storm could weaken significantly before hitting the coast sometime late Tuesday or early Wednesday. (more…)

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At 21 days, Tropical Storm Nadine enters books as one of longest-lived Atlantic storms on record

Posted on October 4, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

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Tropical Storm Nadine, the fifth-longest-lived storm on record in the Atlantic Basin. Map courtesy Supportstorm.

Hurricane Nadine spins over the open waters of the Atlantic on Oct. 2, 2012. Satellite photo courtesy NASA.

Only four other storms have survived longer during the observed era

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Most tropical weather systems make the news when they get really big and threaten coastal areas, but Tropical Storm Nadine, spinning near the Azores, will enter the record books as one of the longest-lived storms in the Atlantic Basin on record.

Nadine has been at tropical or subtropical strength for 21 days. Only four other storms have lasted longer, most recently Kyle, in 2002, which managed to survive for 22 days after forming near Bermuda, looping around for a while, and then cruising up the southeastern seaboard, where tornadoes spawned by storm caused significant damage. (more…)

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