Colorado: Forecasters still grappling with winter outlook

Posted on October 17, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

An El Niño often brings decent October precipitation to the high country, but signals are mixed this year.

No clear signal means water managers will be biting their nails for a few months

By Bob Berwyn

FRISCO — Without a strong El Niño or La Niña signal, Colorado weather watchers are struggling even more than usual to get a sense of how much snow to expect this coming winter, critical information for water managers who have seen reservoir storage dwindle to below 70 percent of average for this time of year.

Even if winter snowfall is close to normal, some reservoirs are unlikely to refill completely next spring, leaving utilities in the position of hoping for an above average winter.

“We’re far from through this. The story has yet to unfold,” Blue River Basin water commissioner Troy Wineland said after participating in a weekly statewide water webinar, explaining that many local streams are flowing well below seasonal averages. A few others are close to average due to upstream releases of stored water, he said. (more…)

Filed under: climate and weather, Colorado, El Niño, La Niña, seasons, Snow and weather, Summit County snow and weather | Tagged: , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Weather: El Niño, or La Niña’s ghost?

Posted on October 8, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

El Niño still struggling to develop

Will a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation influence Colorado’s winter weather? Graphic courtesy NASA.

The three-month precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.

By Bob Berwyn

SUMMIT COUNTY — Climate experts are still hedging their bets when it comes to an outlook for the coming winter, with the official outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center showing no strong trend toward above- or below-average precipitation.

A somewhat murky El Niño outlook is clouding the picture, with sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific ranging above average, but cooling down from just a month ago.

“It’s vexing … the models are just not up to the task,” Wolter said. Overall, he said he’s “guardedly optimistic” that Colorado will see at least close to an average snowfall year, which would would be critical to maintaining water supplies in the state’s depleted reservoirs. (more…)

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Global warming will shift South Pacific rain band

Posted on August 17, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

A 2004 NASA satellite image shows a volcano erupting on Vanuatu, in the South Pacific.

Island nations can expect to see more drought and flooding

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Already under the gun from rising sea levels, some South Pacific island nations could also be swamped by more extreme floods and hit by drought as global temperatures rise in response to more heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

The international study, led by CSIRO oceanographer Dr. Wenju Cai, examines how the South Pacific rain band will respond to greenhouse warming.

The South Pacific rain band is largest and most persistent of the Southern Hemisphere, spanning the Pacific from south of the Equator, south-eastward to French Polynesia. Occasionally, the rain band moves northwards towards the Equator by ip to 1,000 kilometers, inducing extreme climate events. (more…)

Filed under: climate and weather, El Niño, Environment, flooding, global warming, La Niña | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Climate: Global July temps the 4th-highest ever

Posted on August 15, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Cooler than average readings reported from Australia, South America

Red areas mark above-average temperatures, with blue designating areas that were cooler than average in July.

SUMMIT COUNTY — Already on record as the hottest month of all time in the U.S., July 2012 will now go into the books globally as the fourth-warmest on record.

According to the global temperature analysis released today by the National Climatic Data Center, the average combined land and sea surface temperature for July was 1.12 degrees above the 20th century average. The land surface temperatures alone was the third-warmest on record at 1.66 degrees above the 20th century average.

Last month marked the 36th consecutive July with above-average temperatures and the 329th consecutive month overall with higher-than-average readings. According to the NCDC, the last time July global temps were below average was in 1976.

The warmest temps were reported from southeastern Europe, Canada and the U.S. Much cooler than average temperatures continued in Australia, northern and western Europe, eastern Russia, Alaska, and southern South America.

Even in a transition phase between a cooling La Niña and an emerging El Niño, global ocean temperatures were well above normal, with the highest monthly departure from average since July 2010.

For the year to-date, the combined average land and sea surface temperature is the 10th-warmest on record.

Information compiled from the NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for July 2012, published online August 2012, retrieved on August 15, 2012 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2012/7.

Filed under: climate and weather, El Niño, global warming, La Niña, seasons | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

June 2012 global temps the 4th-warmest ever

Posted on July 17, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Land-surface temperatures at an all-time high

Above-average temperatures prevailed across most of the world, adding up to the fourth-warmest June on record

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — The global temperature in June, averaged from thousands of weather stations, was the fourth-warmest on record for the planet, at 1.13 degrees above the 20th century average, according to the monthly update from the National Climatic Data Center.

Land-surface temperatures measured alone set an all-time record for the month, with the northern hemisphere at 2.34 degrees above average and globally at 1.93 degrees above average. June was the second consecutive month with record global land surface temperatures. The last time June temperatures were below average was in 1976.

In the Northern Hemisphere, it was the third month in a row with record-setting heat over land, with most areas seeing temperatures running well above average. Only northern and western Europe, and the northwestern United States were cooler than average. (more…)

Filed under: climate and weather, Environment, global warming, greenhouse gases, La Niña, seasons | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Water: June Lake Powell inflow just 13 percent of average

Posted on July 12, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Lake Powell from a NASA satellite in 2000.

2012 on track to be third-driest year in Colorado River Basin

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Showing just how little snowpack there was, and how early it melted, June inflows into Lake Powell totaled just 13 percent of average, according to the Bureau of Reclamation’s latest update. (more…)

Filed under: climate and weather, Colorado, Drought, Environment, La Niña, rivers, water | Tagged: , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Global warming: More lightning, less rain?

Posted on July 12, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

New study suggests severe thunderstorms will become more common

A thunderstorm on July 18, 2011 dropped an all-time 24 hour rainfall total on Summit County.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Global warming could result in fewer but more intense thunderstorms, with a 10 percent increase in lightning activity for every 1 degree Celsius of warming, according to a new study by scientists at Tel Aviv University.

The increase in more severe storms could up the chances for flash floods, wildfires and even damage to power infrastructure, according to Professor Colin Price, head of the university’s Department of Geophysics, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences.

The researchers tested their climate models in real world conditions in Africa and the Amazon, and regions where climate change occurs naturally, such as Indonesia and Southeast Asia, where El Niño cyclically changes the atmosphere. (more…)

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Colorado: Dust layers a factor in record-early snow melt

Posted on July 11, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Report links wind-blown dust with early runoff

Dust from the desert Southwest is visible on the snow at Loveland Pass, Colorado in this file image from 2010.

NASA Satellite images can trace the dust plumes back to their source.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Along with above-average temperatures and dry and sunny weather, spring dust storms in March and April likely were a significant factor in this year’s record early snow-melt season, according to the Silverton-based Colorado Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies.

Snow that’s darkened by wind-deposited dust absorbs much more heat and hastens the warming of the snowpack to an isothermal state (32 degrees from top to bottom).

In its year-end report, the center explains that the dust layers continue to absorb and add solar energy to the snowpack long after the original dust layer is deposited.  (more…)

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Climate change triggered ancient reef shutdown

Posted on July 9, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

El Niño cycles seen as key factors in coral reef ecology. Photo courtesy NOAA.

Extreme El Niño cycles seen as cause of coral decline

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — A period of dramatic El Niño-La Niña cycles that started about 4,000 years ago resulted in the near-total collapse of some Pacific coral reef ecosystems, according to a new study that took a close look at long-dead reef skeletons along the Pacific Coast of Panama.

The cross-sections of reef covered the last 6,000 years and showed a “reef shutdown” that lasted about 2,500 years, according to the study, published last week in Science. Similar gaps in coral growth were found as far away as Australia and Japan. (more…)

Filed under: biodiversity, climate and weather, coral reefs, El Niño, Environment, La Niña | Tagged: , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

U.S. Wildfires well below average for year to-date

Posted on June 8, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

A P3 air tanker drops flame retardant on the Las Conchas fire in New Mexico, July 2011. PHOTO COURTESY USFS/KARI GREER.

U.S. Senate fast-tracks bill to help Forest Service lease more large air tankers if the season heats up

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY —In what could be one of the worst wildfire seasons in recent memory, the U.S. Senate this week fast-tracked a bill that would authorized the U.S. Forest Service to sign contracts for at least seven large air tankers for emergency wildfire suppression operations.

Sen. Mark Udall, a Colorado Democrat who has been at the forefront of addressing wildfire issues, said he was pleased with bipartisan support for the measure.

“This effort underlines that the federal government can act quickly in emergencies. I hope the House follows suit and gets this legislation to the president’s desk. Western firefighters who are working in the midst of a severe regional drought do not have the luxury of waiting long for the federal government to work.” (more…)

Filed under: climate and weather, Colorado, Drought, Environment, forest fires, La Niña | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

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