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Climate: Is drought relief in sight for California?

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The southern U.S., including parts of drought-hit Arizona, may see above-average precipitation this winter.

Climate experts say there’s good chance of average precipitation in California, but recovery will take a while

Staff Report

FRISCO — There may be some drought relief for California this winter, but the state won’t make up a huge moisture deficit in just one rainy season, federal climate scientists said this week, releasing their winter season outlook.

“Complete drought recovery in California this winter is highly unlikely,” said Mike Halpert, acting director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.”While we’re predicting at least a 2 in 3 chance that winter precipitation will be near or above normal throughout the state, with such widespread, extreme deficits, recovery will be slow,” Halpert added. Continue reading

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Climate: Pacific Northwest warming fast

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It’s hard to see what (some_ people don’t understand about this global warming graph.

‘At the rate the temperature is increasing, the next 1.3-degree bump will happen much more quickly’

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — Climate scientists say they’ve been able to tease out the anthropogenic part of a long-term warming trend in the Pacific Northwest, where the annual mean temperature has warmed by about 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit in the past 100 years.

That has lengthened the freeze-free season by two to three weeks and is the equivalent of the snow line moving up 600 feet, said Philip Mote, director of the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute at Oregon State University and a co-author on the study, published in the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate. Continue reading

Climate: Wet West in July

Energetic monsoon brings moisture surplus to many areas

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The big wet?

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — An energetic and widespread monsoon weather pattern brought above normal precipitation to much of the West in August, with a bullseye of moisture in southern Idaho, extending across western Wyoming, Montana, northeastern Utah and into northwestern Colorado. Some locations in the region saw up to 800 percent of average precipitation. Continue reading

Climate study explores link between El Niño, the polar vortex and extreme cold outbreaks in Europe

Cold snaps more likely during El Niño winters

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How does El Niño affect weather in Europe?

Staff Report

FRISCO —El Niños don’t just affect anchovy fishermen in Peru and the ski resorts of the Sierra Nevada. The somewhat cyclical variation in equatorial Pacific sea surface temps can shift weather patterns worldwide, including in Europe, which may be more susceptible to extreme cold outbreaks in El Niño years, according to a new study led by a University of Colorado, Boulder researcher.

Other research has hinted at the connection, but the new paper is the first to show that El Niños might be linked with Sudden Stratospheric Warming events, when temperatures high in the atmosphere change radically, affect the polar vortex, a belt of winds that form a boundary between the cold Arctic and the temperate mid-latitudes. Sudden Stratospheric Warming weakens those winds, often leading to outbreaks of bitter cold Arctic air across Europe and possibly the eastern U.S. Continue reading

Climate: U.S. average temp cooler than average in July

Hot and cold pattern persists

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The yin and yang of climate, with hot readings in the far West and below-average temperatures the Midwest, along the Atlantic seaboard and the deep south. Map courtesy NCDC.

Summit Voice

FRISCO — A hot-and-cold pattern continued over the continental U.S. in July, with some western states reporting record and near-record warmth, while parts of the Midwest were record cold for the month. Continue reading

Study: Ancient El Niño just as strong as today’s

Archaeologists, ocean scientists team up on detailed study of historic climate cycles in Pacific Ocean

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Study offers new clues to past and future El Niños.

Staff Report

FRISCO — Today’s climate models may not do a very good job of predicting changes in the Pacific Ocean El Niño-La Niña cycle, an international team of  scientists said after studying old seashells that display a distinct history of climate variations.

Understanding how El Niño responds to global warming is significant because the undulating rhythm of warming and cooling waters in the equatorial Pacific is a key driver of weather patterns around the world. Some modeling studies have suggested that ancient El Niños may have been weaker than today’s but the new research suggests they were as strong and as frequent as they are now, at least going back about 10,000 years. Continue reading

Climate: What’s up, El Niño?

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A NOAA map shows warmer than average ocean temperatures in red developing off the coast of South American during the past few months, but sea surface temps are also remaining warmer than average across the western Pacific, hampering development of a full-fledged El Niño.

Widespread ocean warmth may hamper development

Staff Report

FRISCO — This year’s brewing El Niño may be dampened by widespread warm sea surface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean, according to weather experts. Specifically, ocean temperatures across the far western Pacific have remained so warm that one of the key ingredients for a full-strength El Niño is missing — a significant difference in temperatures between the western and Eastern Pacific.

But so far this summer, warmer than average temperatures are spread across the Pacific from east to west. Just last week, the National Climatic Data Center announced that the average global temperature for June was the warmest on record, driving in large part by warm oceans. Continue reading

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