Breckenridge Destinations supports independent journalism. Click for great deals on vacation lodging in Breckenridge.
Polar regions to see more snow; reductions expected most other areas
A new climate model helps pinpoint changes in snowfall due to global warming.
By Summit Voice
FRISCO — A new climate model suggests snowfall is likely to decline by up to 30 percent in the Colorado mountains, and by up to 50 to 80 percent in other regions of the country.
Most of the globe will see significant reductions in snowfall if atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide continue to increase. Only the polar regions and a few isolated mountain areas are likely to see more snow, according to scientists with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Princeton University who analyzed the data.
Carbon dioxide has already increased by 40 percent from mid-19th century levels. At the current rate of emissions, those levels are likely to double before the end of the 21st century.
Up to know, many models have struggled to consistently predict global warming impacts to snowfall trends in mountain areas. It’s clear that snowfall will decrease in marginal areas because it will simply be too warm to snow much of the time.
The new modeling tool incorporates more site-specific and detailed information, especially with regard to topography — a key factor that drives snowfall at the local and regional level. With that information, researchers have a high-definition model of the climate instead of a grainy, wide-angle view.
The new projections could help inform planners and decision-makers in mountain communities dependent on ski-related tourism, as well as resource managers trying to ensure long-term water supplies.
Based on the new projections, the northeast coast, western mountains and the Pacific Northwest will see the biggest drop in snowfall. Some areas, including the East Coast from Virginia to Maine, are likely to see their seasonal snow totals cut in half. The continental interior experiences fewer reductions in snowfall. The only part of the U.S. where snowfall will increase is Alaska.
The first model runs focused on mean annual snow variables, but the formula may also help understand coming changes in extreme snowfall events, as well as the frequency of snow storms and changes in seasonality.
The study was conducted by Sarah Kapnick, a postdoctoral research scientist in the Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at Princeton University and jointly affiliated with NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, and Thomas Delworth, senior physical scientist at GFDL.
Filed under: Arctic, climate and weather, global warming, Snow and weather, Summit County snow and weather Tagged: | climate change, Colorado, Environment, global warming, snowfall, Summit County News
Arapahoe Basin supports independent journalism. Click to visit The Legend online.
Powder's falling at Monarch!! Have you reserved your spot yet?
Innovative energy underwrites coverage of energy stories.
[...] Global warming: New model helps pinpoint snowfall changesSummit County Citizens VoiceFRISCO — A new climate model suggests snowfall is likely to decline by up to 30 percent in the Colorado mountains, and by up to 50 to 80 percent in other regions of the country. Most of the globe will see significant reductions in snowfall if atmospheric …Polar Regions Will See More Snow Over Next Century, Less Everywhere ElseRedOrbitForecast is for more snow in polar regions, less for the rest of usScience CodexChanging snowfall patterns predictedUPI.comall 4 news articles [...]
[...] Source Article from http://summitcountyvoice.com/2013/02/23/global-warming-new-model-helps-pinpoint-snowfall-changes/ [...]
My bet is if you tweak the model just a few percentage points, you could have a reverse image of this map.
I take it you’re a gambling man. You know the old saw: “The only way to win at gambling is to own the casino.” You don’t own the planet, do you? You can take that however you want.
This is interesting, but incomplete. What is needed is an analysis of the changes in precipitation, in all forms. We need to understand what areas are likely to see a raising or lowering of overall annual precipitation. What farm areas will impacted? How will crop selection be affected? How will river flow and levels be affected? How will aquifer replenishment be affected? etc.
Read the image. It gives you the trend. You can pretty accurately guesstimate the effects on flora and fauna by looking at comparable areas elsewhere on the planet.
Its another forecast nothing more. How many of the AGW forecasts have panned out anyway? None. Read Chompsy’s Manufacturing Consent. Government wants a carbon tax.
I have nothing to add to someone who offers us Chomsky (and mispels the man’s name to boot.)
Its like bringing a knife to a gun fight.
Perhaps you should spend some time and actually read the work. (here is a link.)
When the snow pack in the Rockies gets depleted and the rains fail to fall in the central US it will be the start of wide-spread desertification on the continent, just like in the Australian Out Back, the Gobi and the Sahara.
There are already arid regions in the ‘States where it is happening. It’s not going to be good for the “corn basket” of the world any more that it was for the “wheat basket” of the world under Stain.
It looks good for Canada though.
More, but merely annual, snow in the circumpolar regions is a direct consequence of global warming, wether its anthropogenic or not.