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The latest claim is that global warming ‘ended’ in 1997
Notice how even the coolest years aren't quite as cool as they were even just 20 years ago? The latest myth of global cooling is a classic case of cherry picking a short segment of the climate record to try and confuse and mislead the public.
By Bob Berwyn
SUMMIT COUNTY — The latest climate-change rumor floating around the web is that global warming has ended, to which we could all say Hallelujah and Amen, were it only true.
Not only that, but the perpetrators of the myth have actually identified a specific date for the end of that pernicious warming trend that is already causing so many problems around the world. Hanging their hat on a data set recently released by the UK Met Office, they claim that global temperatures have been cooling since 1997.
Of course, basic psychology tells us that pathological liars tend to make their falsehoods as specific as possible because they think that makes them more believable.
You’d think that, if the Met Office really had some stunning new data to show a reversal of the warming trend, they’d be trumpeting it on their homepage. It would, after all, be a major breakthrough, worthy of headlines in every major newspaper.
So I visited the Met Office online, hoping to find the announcement, but instead, I read this:
“While there are noticeable highs and lows in year to year data, over longer periods of time there is a discernible warming trend across the globe. Natural causes can explain only a small part of this warming. The overwhelming majority of scientists agree that this is due to rising concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere caused by human activities.”
Global temperature data from the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit.
Sounds like what climate researchers have consistently been saying for several years, but just to double-check, I sent a quick email to Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric research in Boulder.
Trenberth sent me the graph posted as the lead photo for this op-ed column and brief explanation: “Global warming has NOT ended but weather variability (and
El Niño, etc.) mask it over a few years.”
Simple enough, right?
Not for the UK’s Daily Mail, which decided to go with the “global warming has ended angle in a Jan. 29 story by David Rose.
Not only did the newspaper misinterpret and misrepresent the data, it went as far as to suggest — within the first three paragraphs — that the Earth could be headed toward a mini-ice age, without citing so much as a single scientific study to substantiate that viewpoint.
The story goes on to cite “leading climate scientists” as saying that a coming lull in sunspot activity could bring cold summers, bitter winters and a shorter growing season that could threaten food supplies.
For global warming skeptics, the best defense is apparently a good offense. If you can’t disprove that human emissions of greenhouse gases are warming the planet, you might as well go all the way and claim that we’re headed for a new ice age. The paper also engaged in some cherry picking by interviewing a handful of scientists known to be among a very small minority who believe that the sun’s activity is a key driver of climate change on Earth.
This is another effective tactic because most people without scientific training instinctively see the sun as the primary influence on the sensible day to day weather. If the sun is shining, it’s warm; if it’s not, it’s cold. So intuitively, people are likely to believe the fable that sunspots drive the climate.
The reality once again is that every credible climate model shows that the solar activity is only a minor input into the Earth’s energy cycle, far outweighed by the undeniable greenhouse effect of gases like carbon dioxide and methane.
The Daily Mail article then veers into an arcane discussion of sunspot cycles that illustrates another favorite tactic of global warming skeptics — deflect attention from the real issues by pointing at an external source.
And finally, for good measure, it cites another couple of scientists who claim that warming and cooling of the world’s oceans are the key drivers of global temperatures — an argument that seems to completely ignore the fact the temperatures of the ocean don’t just change on their own — they’re influenced by the same processes that drive the rest of the Earth’s climate system.
No, global warming did not end it 1997. It continues unabated and poses clear and significant threats to natural ecosystems, as well as health and human welfare everywhere on Earth.
Filed under: climate and weather, Environment, global warming, op-ed Tagged: | climate, climate change, Environment, global warming, global warming deniers, global warming end 1997, Met Office
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But Bob, don’t you know that England just had a cold spell, that they might even get another, as well as parts of Europe? Doesn’t that play into the notion that the Brits are right? I could go on, but what’s the use?
This is a huge problem is misinformation going around, the uneducated or deeply stupid are being swayed by conservative talk radio hosts, like Phil Valentine into believing a pro big oil mentality.
Most of them think the Greenhouse effect is a liberal plot.
And Norman we still have cold spells and winters even in the hottest times in earths history, you know like when the dinosaurs walked the earth, or as Christians call it, When Jesus walked with the Dinosaurs.
I know I should know better, but what is the point you’re trying to make
Hmm, in a climate discussion you want to through in anti Christian bigotry? Hayhoe would be very disappointed in you.
“You’d think that, if the Met Office really had some stunning new data to show a reversal of the warming trend, they’d be trumpeting it on their homepage. ”
I doubt it, they get tons of money from grants to study the AGW issue and to indoctrinate the public on the terrors of AGW. If they were to suddenly exist, the bureau would no longer be able to ask for money for these purposes, and studies on mitigation risk, etc. In other words the department would lose power and domain. Government departments measure their success on power and domain. The Met is not going admit defeat and lose power.
Your graphs though are nifty but don’t show much.
Good thoughts Bob. I heard an interesting climate change denier on talk radio a couple of days ago citing the novel “State of Fear” by Michael Crichton as evidence that global warming is a myth. The irony is that someone might use a novel, which is a form of entertainment and written by a non climatologist, as a proof against climate change.
I heard some climate cheerleaders citing “Inconvenient truth” as evidence of global warming. The irony is that someone might use a novel/movie/powerpoint presentation with crane, replete with lies, which is a form of entertainment and written by a non climatologist, as a proof FOR climate change.
And then get the lap dog politician to roll it out as mandatory reading for school children
[...] – Above Post Links */ google_ad_slot = "9927257852"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 15; Opinion: The latest myth from global warming deniersHad Bob not cheated, and actually used the entire data current set – he would have shown that [...]
Bob, your graph is incomplete. If you hadn’t ended time in 2009, you would have seen that there has been a significant amount of cooling since 1998.
http://www.real-science.com/berwyn-claims-world-ended-2009
[...] – Above Post Links */ google_ad_slot = "9927257852"; google_ad_width = 468; google_ad_height = 15; February 28, 2012 at 11:46 pmThe last thing alarmists want to have posted on their site – is the truth.google_ad_client = [...]
Bob, what is it about the present participle that is so hard to understand? This is a fantastic phenomena! People like me say it stopped warming about 15 years ago. The graph you present…. had you given the complete graph would confirm this as a true statement. Your graph show warming abatement over about 11 year period.
But, because it was warming over 15 years ago, you and many others insist it’s still warming…… when it clearly isn’t. That doesn’t mean it may not start to warm again, it is simply and factually stating that the globe hasn’t warming in about 15 years. Why is this so hard for you guys?
It’s now 2012, and we have reliable satellite records of the global temperature back to 1979. For January 2012, the average monthly temperature anomaly is negative, in both UAH and RSS systems. In a few days, the February data will be out, my prediction is that the anomaly will stay negative.
These satellites were deployed in part, due to the Great Global Cooling Scare of 1970′s. Temperatures had been dropping since about 1945. You can see the drop in your graph above. There was palpable panic that we were headed towards another ice age.
Any reasonable person looking at the satellite data can see that the planet has warmed since 1979, by about 0.2 degrees C, and that there has been no warming since 1997. The global average temperature has remained flat for 15 years.
A notable climate scientist famously declares it a “travesty” that “we can’t account for this lack of warming”. I disagree. I think it’s an excellent opportunity to re-visit some of the computer models and improve them, given that the global warming scare is based entirely on the predictions of these models.
Bob, why does your graph not show temps up to the end of 2011 or would the obvious decline be inconvenient for your rant!