Summit County Citizens Voice

Above-average water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico could fuel severe weather early in spring. IMAGE COURTESY ACCUWEATHER.COM.

Warm Gulf waters could lead to severe weather early in the season

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Warmer than average water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico could fuel another severe weather season — with more tornadoes than average — this spring, according to an outlook issued this week by AccuWeather.com.

The fading La Niña pattern (cooler-than-average sea surface temps in the eastern equatorial Pacific) is also likely to shift the the focus of tornadoes farther west into the traditional zone known as Tornado Alley, stretching from Texas up into Kansas.

During a strong La Niña, like in the spring of 2011, tornado activity tends to shift farther east, the AccuWeather forecasters said, explaining that they expect the deep South, including the Gulf States and eastern Texas, to get hit by severe weather early in the season, mainly in March, due to the warmer-than average waters of the Gulf.

By early April, the severe weather threat will retreat to the north, reaching the lower Ohio and mid-Mississippi valleys, according to Paul Pastelok, expert long-range meteorologist and leader of the AccuWeather.com long-range forecasting team.

Last year, 1,709 tornadoes were reported, falling short of the record 1,817 tornadoes in 2004. The average number for the past decade is about 1,300 tornadoes annually.

This year’s moderate La Niña is fading and there are some signs that the equatorial Pacific is warming up, leading to “neutral” conditions (neither La Niña nor El Niño) by April.

“Areas that seemed to miss out on frequent severe weather last year may see an uptick this year,” AccuWeather.com Exert senior meteorologist Dan Kottlowski, said regarding the difference in pattern.

The mid-Mississippi and upper Ohio valleys are among the zones that may get hit more frequently by severe weather this year. Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan are included in this zone.

“If I were in the South or Ohio Valley, I’d be extra prepared this year,” Mike Smith, senior vice president of AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions cautioned.

“There is no way to know if it (2012) will be as active as last year. Last year we had two unfortunate occurrences simultaneously: a larger-than-normal number of tornadoes plus tornadoes hitting densely populated areas. There is no way to know if the cities are going to be hit in the same number as last year. If so, it could be another deadly year,” Smith said.

Filed under: climate and weather, La Niña Tagged: | 2012 tornado outlook, climate, La Niña, tornado alley, weather