Summit County Citizens Voice

Chance of snow this weekend!

A graphic from the Boulder National Weather Service office shows the bullseye of heavy precipitation over northwest Colorado last winter (RIGHT) and the widespread dry conditions this year (LEFT) during the same span, from late November to late December.

SUMMIT COUNTY — With a glimmer of hope for a weekend storm that may deliver a few inches to the Colorado mountains, even National Weather Service forecasters are calling on comparisons between last winter and this one. Here’s an excerpt from the forecast out of the Grand Junction office:

"THE FIRST SNOWFALL IN A GOOD LONG WHILE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND. LAST YEAR THIS WOULD HAVE BEEN A PIDDLY STORM...THIS YEAR
IT IS MORE SIGNIFICANT."

This winter's precipitation pattern is almost a reverse mirror image of last year's.

According to the forecast, the best chance for snow is Saturday night into Sunday morning, with a few mountain areas potentially picking up 4 to 8 inches, but once again, it looks like the storm will split, with main area of low pressure  setting up just to the south of Colorado, or perhaps over the Four Corners.

That means the bulk of the moisture will stay south of the forecast area. According to the Colorado Avalanche Information Center, the San Juans and the east side of the Continental Divide will once again be favored, with up to 3 to 6 inches of snow, and 1 to 3 inches for other mountain areas.

“At this point, forecasting any snow is a welcome change,” the CAIC forecasters wrote in their Thursday afternoon update.

According to the National Weather Service, the Flattops, Elks, Grand Mesa and north San Juans will see the best precipitation.

High pressure builds back into the area Monday, with another week storm slated to graze the north Wednesday, after which the forecast models diverge. Stay tuned … Here are a few more graphics showing the difference between last year and this winter. Click here to see the entire powerpoint presentation of the January to March Colorado weather outlook.

A seasonal comparison showing snowfall from September through December.

A couple of hundred miles in the storm track makes all the difference.

Filed under: climate and weather, Colorado, La Niña, Snow and weather, Summit County snow and weather Tagged: | 2011 snowfall, Colorado Avalanche Information Center, Colorado weather, La Niña, National Weather Service