New modeling techniques narrow the range
By Summit Voice
SUMMIT COUNTY — Researchers working on a comprehensive census of marine life have used some of their modeling techniques to come up with what they say could be the best guess yet as to exactly how many species of plants and animals exist on this planet.
Give or take a million, that number would now stand at about 8.7 million, with about 6.5 million on land and 2.2 million dwelling in the ocean depths — and 90 percent of those have yet to be discovered, fully described and categorized, according to the study published this week by PLoS Biology.
“The question of how many species exist has intrigued scientists for centuries and the answer, coupled with research by others into species’ distribution and abundance, is particularly important now because a host of human activities and influences are accelerating the rate of extinctions,” said lead author Camilo Mora of the University of Hawaii and Dalhousie University in Halifax, Canada. “Many species may vanish before we even know of their existence, of their unique niche and function in ecosystems, and of their potential contribution to improved human well-being.”
“This work deduces the most basic number needed to describe our living biosphere,” said co-author Boris Worm of Dalhousie University. “If we did not know — even by an order of magnitude (1 million? 10 million? 100 million?) — the number of people in a nation, how would we plan for the future?
“It is the same with biodiversity. Humanity has committed itself to saving species from extinction, but until now we have had little real idea of even how many there are,” he said.
Dr. Worm said the recently updated Red List issued by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature assessed 59,508 species, of which 19,625 are classified as threatened. This means the IUCN Red List, the most sophisticated ongoing study of its kind, monitors less than 1 percent of the world’s species.
Drawing conclusions from 253 years of taxonomy since Linnaeus
Swedish scientist Carl Linnaeus created and published in 1758 the system still used to formally name and describe species. In the 253 years since, about 1.25 million species — roughly 1 million on land and 250,000 in the oceans — have been described and entered into central databases (roughly 700,000 more are thought to have been described but have yet to reach the central databases).
To now, the best approximation of Earth’s species total was based on the educated guesses and opinions of experts, who variously pegged the figure in a range from 3 to 100 million — wildly differing numbers questioned because there is no way to validate them.
Drs. Mora and Worm, together with Dalhousie colleagues Derek P. Tittensor, Sina Adl and Alastair G.B. Simpson, refined the estimated species total to 8.7 million by identifying numerical patterns within the taxonomic classification system (which groups forms of life in a pyramid-like hierarchy, ranked upwards from species to genus, family, order, class, phylum, kingdom and domain).
Analyzing the taxonomic clustering of the 1.2 million species today in the Catalogue of Life and the World Register of Marine Species, the researchers discovered reliable numerical relationships between the more complete higher taxonomic levels and the species level.
“We discovered that, using numbers from the higher taxonomic groups, we can predict the number of species. The approach accurately predicted the number of species in several well-studied groups such as mammals, fishes and birds, providing confidence in the method.”
When applied to all five known eukaryote kingdoms of life on Earth, the approach predicted:
- 7.77 million species of animals (of which 953,434 have been described and cataloged)
- 298,000 species of plants (of which 215,644 have been described and cataloged)
- 611,000 species of fungi (moulds, mushrooms) (of which 43,271 have been described and cataloged)
- 36,400 species of protozoa (single-cell organisms with animal-like behavior, eg. movement, of which 8,118 have been described and cataloged)
- 27,500 species of chromista (including, eg. brown algae, diatoms, water moulds, of which 13,033 have been described and cataloged)
Total: 8.74 million eukaryote species on Earth.
Within the 8.74 million total is an estimated 2.2 million (plus or minus 180,000) marine species of all kinds, about 250,000 (11 percent) of which have been described and catalogued. When it formally concluded in October 2010, the Census of Marine Life offered a conservative estimate of more than 1 million species in the seas.
“Like astronomers, marine scientists are using sophisticated new tools and techniques to peer into places never seen before,” said Australian Ian Poiner, chair of the census’ scientific steering committee. “During the 10-year census, hundreds of marine explorers had the unique human experience and privilege of encountering and naming animals new to science. We may clearly enjoy the age of discovery for many years to come.”
“We have only begun to uncover the tremendous variety of life around us,” said co-author Alastair Simpson. “The richest environments for prospecting new species are thought to be coral reefs, seafloor mud and moist tropical soils. But smaller life forms are not well known anywhere. Some unknown species are living in our own backyards — literally.”
“Awaiting our discovery are a half million fungi and moulds whose relatives gave humanity bread and cheese,” said Jesse Ausubel, co-founder of the Census of Marine Life. “For species discovery, the 21st century may be a fungal century.”
Mr. Ausubel notes the enigma of why so much diversity exists, saying the answer may lie in the notions that nature fills every niche, and that rare species are poised to benefit from a change of conditions.
Based on current costs and requirements, the study suggests that describing all remaining species using traditional approaches could require up to 1,200 years of work by more than 300,000 taxonomists at an approximate cost of $US 364 billion. Fortunately, new techniques such as DNA barcoding are radically reducing the cost and time involved in new species identification.
“With the clock of extinction now ticking faster for many species, I believe speeding the inventory of Earth’s species merits high scientific and societal priority,” said Dr. Mora. “Renewed interest in further exploration and taxonomy could allow us to fully answer this most basic question: What lives on Earth?”