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Weather service ups Atlantic hurricane forecast

Atmospheric & ocean conditions ripe for tropical storm development

Tropical storm Emily on August 3 — photo courtesy NOAA

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — NOAA issued its updated 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook today raising the number of expected named storms from its pre-season outlook issued in May. Forecasters also increased their confidence that 2011 will be an active Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, updates its Atlantic hurricane season outlook every August.

“The atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean are primed for high hurricane activity during August through October,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center.  “Storms through October will form more frequently and become more intense than we’ve seen so far this season.”

Key climate factors predicted in May continue to support an active season. These include: the tropical multi-decadal signal, which since 1995 has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions, leading to more active seasons; exceptionally warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures (the third warmest on record); and the possible redevelopment of La Niña.  Reduced vertical wind shear and lower air pressure across the tropical Atlantic also favor an active season.

The Atlantic basin has already produced five tropical storms this season: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don and Emily. All eyes this week are on Emily, which continues to develop and move towards the United States.

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One Response

  1. Reading this article today, reminds me of a comment someone made recently concerning computer modeling about climate change. Without going into the nuts & bolts, the person didn’t give much credit for such methods. Why you ask, do I bring this up? Simple, does that same person believe this story, and if so, why is this model any different than the others. Also, the person can have an influence upon others, especially children with the kind of beliefs that comes from not believing other sources other than a narrow perspective that only fits into the belief of that person. This is the 21st Century with all the latest upgrades that Science can muster, of which, like Pandora’s box, new and exciting things take place on a 24/7 basis. Denying science, is like saying the sun revolves around the earth. Some people refuse to except, regardless.

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