Summit County Citizens Voice

A Dec. 20 satellite image from NOAA shows some moisture-laden air swirling toward Colorado. Forecasters are predicting a decent chance of snow Wednesday afternoon, evening and into Thursday, with 2 to 6 inches possible in favored locations of the north-central mountains where slopes face north and northwest.

Snow in the outlook; El Niño impacts felt globally, with drought concerns in Australia, hopes for abundant rainfall in California

By Bob Berwyn

SUMMIT COUNTY — A shield of high, thin clouds moved over the north-central mountains Monday night, helping to keep nighttime low temperatures moderate. The southwest flow aloft will keep temperatures seasonable Tuesday, with highs climbing into the 20s and lows dropping back down into the single digits Tuesday night.

The outlook is for a cool-down Wednesday, as winds once again shift. A flow out of the northwest, with associated moisture, could  deliver much-needed snow to the area Wednesday night into Thursday, according to forecasts from the National Weather Service and the Colorado Avalanche Information Center. Expect highs Wednesday in the teens with winds ranging from 15 to 25 MPH.

With a little luck, between 2 to 6 inches of snow could accumulate by Thursday morning. The National Weather Service models suggest a deep layer of moisture over the mountains Wednesday, so we could definitely squeeze out some decent snow amounts as the northwest flow pushes the airmass up against the favored north and northwest-facing mountain slopes.

Click more to read about El Niño impacts.

The avalanche danger in the backcountry of the Summit and Eagle zones persists, with a variable and layered snowpack made up of brittle wind slabs, some pockets of soft slab and a base of rotten faceted grains that gives way easily to a variety of triggers. As a result, the avalanche danger is still rated as considerable on all steeper slopes above treeline and on north to southwest-facing slopes near treeline.

Go to the CAIC web site for a full discussion of the current avalanche hazards, sign up with center’s friends group to receive daily updates by e-mail and to support backcountry avalanche forecasting, or call the local hotline at (970) 668-0600 before heading into the backcountry.

2009 El Niño update
So far, the cyclical warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific hasn’t been good to us locally. But if you’re a big wave rider in Hawaii, early December brought a bonanza of surf, with some of the most powerful swell in years. See some video here.

Surf experts said this year’s swell ranked in the top five all-time, comparable to historic El Niño episodes in 1998 and 1969.

Water officials in California are hopeful that El Niño storm track will bring abundant moisture to the state to make up for a few years of below-normal precipitation. At the same time, coastal towns are preparing for big waves and the possibility of mudslides on coastal bluffs.

Recent snows across the southern tier of U.S. states, including Texas, have also been attributed to an active subtropical branch of the Jet Stream carrying moisture inland from the Pacific.

El Niño impacts are more strongly felt in South America. The warmer ocean temperatures are associated with warm and wet summers between December and February, especially along the coast of northern Peru and Ecuador, where flooding can result. The warmer ocean temps also dampen the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water off the coast of South America, with impacts to fisheries in the area.

Australian meteorologists are also tracking this year’s event, concerned that the global shift in weather patterns could lead to renewed drought conditions and brushfires across parts of the continent — especially in Victoria, the country’s smallest, but most populous state.

Filed under: Snow and weather, Summit County Colorado Tagged: | avalanches, backcountry, Breckenridge, Colorado ski areas, El Nino, snow, Snow and weather, Summit County Colorado, Summit County News, Summit County snow, temperatures