Summit County Citizens Voice

(©UCAR, image courtesy Matthias Rempel, NCAR) "This is the first time we have a model of an entire sunspot," says lead author Matthias Rempel, a scientist at NCAR's High Altitude Observatory. "If you want to understand all the drivers of Earth's atmospheric system, you have to understand how sunspots emerge and evolve. Our simulations will advance research into the inner workings of the Sun as well as connections between solar output and Earth's atmosphere."

By Bob Berwyn

SUMMIT COUNTY — Local ski areas reported an unexpected bonus snowfall Friday morning, with 5 inches at Copper, 4 inches at Keystone and 3 inches at A-Basin.

With the north-central mountains under a northwest flow, snow showers could persist Friday. Mountains oriented perpendicular to the wind could squeeze out a few more inches of snow as the moist air is pushed up the slopes.

Most of that snow will fall along the Front Range and Continental Divide, so A-Basin could get lucky. Keep your fingers crossed. Saturday morning looks a bit drier, but another plug of moist air could move across the area Saturday afternoon, bringing snow as far south as the northern San Juans. according to the weather experts with the Colorado Avalanche Information Center.

In the backcountry, human-triggered avalanches remain probable on north through southeast aspects through Friday, with the hazard rated as “considerable” on slopes near and above treeline. For other parts of the zone, the hazard is rated as “moderate,” which means a continued possibility of human-triggered slides.

For the longer term, weather in North America is still under the influence of El Niño, with warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, this year’s El Niño is currently at peak strength, with weather impacts expected to last at least into the first few months of 2010.

The federal agency’s researchers say historic records show that El Niño’s impacts are usually greatest during the late winter season, with better than even chances for above-average temperatures across the West — especially in the north-central Rockies.

But for Colorado, the large-scale cycles in hemispheric weather don’t translate into any reliable snowfall predictions, with generally equal odds for above-average of below-average snowfall the next few months.

However, NOAA climate researcher Klaus Wolter offered a slightly more pessimistic outlook in a forecast that zeros in on Colorado and the interior Southwest:

“My experimental forecast guidance for the late winter season (January-March) continues dry for Arizona, in stark contrast to typical El Niño outcomes. Colorado and Utah are also covered by a generally dry forecast well beyond the El Niño- typical winter dryness for higher elevations of northern and central Colorado. On the other hand, the forecast for eastern New Mexico remains wet, consistent with El Niño expectations.”

Along with studying ocean temperatures and global weather patterns, other researchers are looking at the sun to determine whether sunspot cycles influence the Earth’s climate. Scientists with the National Center for Atmospheric Research recently have been able to use computers to model an entire sunspot, a fundamental part of understanding how the solar flares work, and what effect they might have on the climate.

For more information, Click on the image or right here to visit a web page outlining some of the latest research.

Click here for a very cool sunspot gallery.

And here’s a link to NCAR’s high altitude observatory web site.

Filed under: avalanches, snow, Snow and weather, Summit County Colorado Tagged: | Breckenridge, climate, Colorado, Colorado ski areas, El Nino, Ski Resorts, skiing and riding, Snow and weather, Summit County Colorado, Summit County News, summit county weather, sunspots